Carlos Rodon to Yankees - Fantasy Baseball Impact

December 18, 2022

The Yankees beefed up their already strong starting rotation by adding Carlos Rodon to the mix, signing him to a six-year contract. Jon Anderson takes a look at what this could mean for his fantasy baseball value in 2023.

Baseball is a funny game sometimes. We first got a glimpse of Carlos Rodon in a Major League uniform in 2015. He showed some real promise at times and looked like he could eventually bust out as an ace in the league, but a high walk rate and a ton of different injuries kept preventing that from happening.

After plenty of us (myself included) had given up on the idea that he would ever be a fantasy ace, everything fell into place for Rodon in the 2021 season. He stayed healthy enough to make 24 starts, and he was dominant on the hill. The season wasn't clean of injuries, as some shoulder fatigue cast real doubt on what was ahead for him. There was so much doubt there that the White Sox didn't even bother to make him an offer, letting him go to free agency where the Giants scooped him up on a one-year deal. The Giants got their money's worth, as Rodon had his best season and was one of the game's best pitchers in 2022.

Let's take a look back at Rodon's unique career and make some guesses about what he can do with the Yankees in 2023.

The Injury Plague

Things looked fine for Rodon after the 2016 season, but then things really hit a rough patch. From 2017 through 2020, he managed just 231 innings total, that's right around how many Sandy Alcantara threw in 2022 alone.

He had Tommy John surgery in 2019, and shoulder surgery in 2018. He was just one of those guys that you didn't think had the durability to be a professional thrower of a baseball.

But, as so often happens, players are injury-prone only until they're not. And after Rodon kicked the injury bug, he took off.

The Contract Years

The last two years turned out to be pretty excellent years for Rodon to excel in, as his two strong seasons got him PAID by the Yankees to the tune of $162 million. They're paying him to be the ace (maybe not THEIR ace, but an ace) that he has been over the last two years, so they must think he can do it!

It turns out that Rodon has done more than just stay healthy in these recent seasons, and has taken his K-BB% to new heights:

You're typically looking for a K-BB% above 20% from the league's best pitchers, and Rodon has crushed that mark, going over 26% the last two seasons. He has gone for a strikeout rate above 33% and a walk rate below 8% each of these last two years. His combined 27% K-BB% ranks third in the league behind only Max Scherzer and Corbin Burnes among qualified SPs.

What is pretty unique about Rodon is that he's done it mostly with his fastball.

He threw his four-seamer 61.2% of the time last year. Only a few starting pitchers in the league threw their fastball that much, but in Rodon's case - it works out well. Tall left-handers have a distinct advantage in their ability to be deceptive, they can release the ball from a spot that hitters rarely see. This creates outsized swinging-strike rates for these types of pitchers, which we see here with Rodon's fastball.

Rodon's 15% SwStr% on the four-seamer was tied with Cristian Javier for the league lead among four-seamers thrown at least 1,000 times last year.

Highest SwStr% on FF (1,000+ pitches)

He adds a pretty nice slider to the mix as well, earning an 18.3% SwStr% on that pitch in 2022. These two offerings are elite and give Rodon a really nice base to excel on.

All of that put together gave him the league's 11th-best SwStr% for the year and the league's second-best strikeout rate.

So he has the strikeout stuff, for sure, but what's also really great to see is the quality of contact (or lack thereof) he allows. The fastball did allow a barrel rate slightly above league average, but when you consider how few balls in play he allows on the pitch - that becomes a very useable barrel rate (that is evidenced by the elite overall .277 xwOBA he posted with the pitch).

One other thing that stands out in his profile is how tough he is on left-handed hitters. Southpaw batters slashed just .179/.255/.260 off of him with two homers (Freddie Freeman, Ben Gamel) all season long (137 PA) while striking out nearly 36% of the time. You basically have no chance again him from the left-handed batter's box - which goes in the Yankees' favor against the likes of notorious Yankee killer Rafael Devers.

Yankee Stadium

In common baseball thought, these two stadiums (AT&T Park in San Francisco, and Yankee Stadium in New York) are thought to be on opposite ends of the spectrum. Yankee Stadium was built for homers, and San Francisco has long been a pitcher's haven.

Park factors mean a whole lot less for pitchers who don't allow balls in play, and Rodon is one of those guys, only allowing a ball in play on about 67% of his at-bats (33% K%). And we know that when lefties put a ball in play, the park usually doesn't become a factor either because it's hit without much authority.

So if we factor in the high strikeout rate and his ability to completely stifle lefties, most of Yankee Stadium's say in the matter is muted. Most people will view this as a park downgrade, but I don't view it that way. We could see a couple more homers allowed to righties with the park differences, but overall it's not a thing worth knocking him down in the rankings.

The Risk

Two seasons are probably not enough to make us forget about all of the injuries he's suffered in the past. Rodon just turned 30 this month (December), so he will be turning 36 when this contract expires. I have my doubts that they'll get the number of innings they paid for over the long-term of this contract, but that kind of contract is frankly what the mark demands at this point.

The long-term isn't a concern for most of us in the fantasy realm, as we are mostly talking about redraft leagues. Rodon is going to be drafted as a top-12 starter in almost every fantasy league, so he would more likely be the first SP you take on your team. To each his own, but I'm not very comfortable with taking a guy of this age with this injury history as the anchor of my pitching staff.

I would be fine drafting Rodon as an SP2 if he would fall past SP15 or so, which is possible if your league-mates have the same concerns - but chances are someone in the league will view Rodon as a solidified ace and take him before your draft gets that far.

This fantasy analyst is probably going to be off of Rodon given the ADP, but he's not someone I'm putting on a "do not draft" list, and I'm certainly not going to criticize anybody for taking Rodon inside the top-10 - he's that good when healthy.

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