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For the first time since NASCAR implemented a playoff format in 2004, the regular-season finale will come on a superspeedway track, that being Daytona International Superspeedway. Expect chaos.
Superspeedways are as unpredictable as racing comes, oftentimes using Darwin's Theory of Survival of the Fittest, only in terms of damage. Hell, sometimes that doesn't even work, as Erik Jones won this year's Busch Clash prior to the Daytona 500 and his car was torn to pieces.
What I'm trying to say is, I might be no help to you this week, so forgive me in advance. However, many of the same drivers lead laps at superspeedways, even if they don't win the race. That helps, right?l Thisi lineup is a total guess, especially given there are 17 drivers that could win-and-get-in to the postseason, with 13 berths already locked up. Let's give this a shot.
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My DFS Lineup - Coke Zero 400
Ryan Blaney ($10,000)
Career at Daytona: 10 starts, 0 wins, 147 laps led
Average finish at Daytona: 21.6
Flashback to Talladega Superspeedway in late June, remember who won? Blaney. Flashback to this year's Daytona 500, Blaney lost out in a photo finish to Denny Hamlin. Flashback to Talladega last fall, and it was the No. 12 Ford that edged Ryan Newman for the victory. What I'm saying is, Blaney is a good superspeedway racer. Real good.
In 10 Daytona starts, Blaney has paced the field for 147 laps, granted, 118 of those came in the 2018 Daytona 500. And there's no hiding it: Talladega has suited him better than Daytona, failing to finish in half of his starts at the World Center of Racing.
But Blaney's due for a good run, having not scored a top-10 finish this season since the first race at Michigan International Speedway in the doubleheader weekend three weeks ago. Meanwhile, no driver should count on a good finish at Daytona. But over the past handful of years, Team Penske has proven to be loyal to one another in the draft, so I'd build this lineup around that blue oval team.
Joey Logano ($9,400)
Career at Daytona: 23 starts, 1 win, 120 laps led
Average finish at Daytona: 17.8
Again, don't expect any of these drivers to have good average finishes at the track, it's a crapshoot. Hell, in the past Trevor Bayne, Justin Haley, among others have proved drivers don't need any prior superspeedway experience to be victorious. But Logano has a lot, and arguably the best superspeedway driver in today's Cup Series.
Sure, Logano is known to be overly-aggressive, but that can help you at a place at Daytona. It can also be a detriment and start the "Big One." More times than not, though, Logano is a factor for the win, typically around at the end of Daytona races.
Now, the No. 22 car starts third on Saturday night, meaning an early wreck would lose you a bunch of points based on finishing position. But if this race plays out how I anticipate it playing out, it will favor someone like Logano, because I believe the majority of the calamity will come in the final stage. In his last 11 starts at DIS, he has six finishes of sixth or better -- including his Daytona 500 win in 2015 -- and five finishes of 22nd or worse. There is no middle ground.
Brendan Gaughan ($8,600)
Career at Daytona: 10 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Daytona: 19.0
Prior to the 2020 season where Gaughan made a start on the Daytona road course, he's centered his Cup career around running on superspeedways for Beard Motorsports since 2017. And that strategy has worked out well.
In February, Gaughan scored his first top-10 effort in the Daytona 500, though has two total top 10s at the 2.5-mile track. In seven races at DIS running for Beard, he has five top-20 finishes, which suits you well since he starts shotgun on the field.
There's a reason why Gaughan costs this much: he's good at pack racing, plus his last starting spot means the only way he can go is up. Expect the No. 62 car to be around at the end for another good finish.
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Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($8,300)
Career at Daytona: 16 starts, 1 win, 121 laps led
Average finish at Daytona: 18.8
If I was one of the drivers sitting on the playoff bubble, Stenhouse is a driver I'd be worried about possibly winning their way into the postseason.
Over the years, Stenhouse has proved to be the most aggressive driver on superspeedways, single-handedly worth the price of admission. His two career Cup wins have come at Daytona and Talladega -- both in 2017 -- where he's always a factor to visit victory lane.
Stenhouse loves superspeedway racing. In the most recent race at Talladega, he lost out on a victory by .007 seconds to Blaney. Expect the No. 47 car to be strong on Saturday. And even if he doesn't win the race for you, he starts 31st, so even a solid finish gains you valuable points.
Clint Bowyer ($7,600)
Career at Daytona: 29 starts, 0 wins, 162 laps led
Average finish at Daytona: 16.4
Quietly, Bowyer is a very respectable sueprspeedway racer, almost always in the midst late in the going. Granted, he's made recent mistakes at Daytona: getting turned on a restart in this year's 500, while triggering a multi-car incident in last year's Great American Race.
In his career, Bowyer has 13 top-10 finishes at the track, but just four of those are top fives. Most recently, he finished runner-up to Stenhouse in 2017. He did, however, place sixth in this year's race at Daytona.
Typically, Bowyer rides around at the back for most of the race, hoping to miss the "Big One." This week will likely be the same. He sits comfortably in 14th on the playoff grid, almost a near-lock for the postseason. The No. 14 car starts 14th, which is a danger position should things go wrong. But with his price, he's a steal at Daytona.
Ty Dillon ($6,100)
Career at Daytona: 9 starts, 0 wins, 10 laps led
Average finish at Daytona: 20.4
When thinking of solid drivers at superspeedways, most don't think of Dillon and Germain Racing. But recently, the No. 13 has been fairly good at pack-racing.
Prior to finishing 30th in this year's Daytona 500, Dillon had three straight top-10 efforts at the famed track, all better than sixth. His best outing was a fourth in the July race last season. In fact, 80% of his top-10 finishes in Cup have come at superspeedways.
Dillon starts 29th on Saturday night, and is most definitely worth the price. He's another driver that has nothing to lose, needing to visit victory lane in order to qualify for the playoffs.
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