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Hang on, we're almost there.
Just three races remain in the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season, and this weekend the sport takes to the Lone Star State, running 500 miles at Texas Motor Speedway. Just over three months ago, Austin Dillon upset the field, scoring the victory and clinching a spot into the playoffs.
Like then, clean air will mean everything on Sunday; Dillon won the race on just two fresh tires, as his Richard Childress Racing teammate Tyler Reddick held on to second with a similar strategy. This weekend, though, a guaranteed spot into the Championship 4 is up for grabs.
Holiday Special! Save 50% on any Premium Pass using discount code THANKS. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSTo my own surprise, this ideal lineup contains just playoff driver, and if you've watched any of the last three fall Texas races, I bet you can guess who that is.
My DFS Lineup - Hollywood Casino 400
Kevin Harvick ($11,000)
Career at Texas: 35 starts, 3 wins, 654 laps led
Average finish at Texas: 10.2
Since Texas reconfigured its racetrack three years ago, it's become Kevin Harvick's personal playground, specifically in the postseason.
Over the last three playoff races alone, Harvick has led 334 laps, more than half of his career laps led at the 1.5-mile track. Earlier this season, the No. 4 car paced the field for 40 laps, and has led at least 38 circuits in six of the past seven races at TMS overall.
Guess what Harvick has to begin Sunday's race? Clean air, meaning he's going to lead laps and surely put down some fast ones. Be sure to put the No. 4 car on your lineup, as Harvick's worth every penny of the $11,000 he takes up on your team.
Ryan Blaney ($10,000)
Career at Texas: 11 starts, 0 wins, 383 laps led
Average finish at Texas: 18.5
The fact Blaney has yet to reach victory lane in the Lone Star State during Cup competition is criminal. He's always fast, including a race-high 150 laps led in the July race. Flash back to the spring race in 2017 -- then running for the Wood Brothers -- Blaney led 148 laps, meaning two of the three races in which he's led the most laps in a single race have come at TMS.
Look, Blaney's chase for a championship came to a screeching halt after the No. 12 team was eliminated after the Round of 16. He's only recorded four top-10 finishes in the past 12 races, one of which was a top five. Not ideal when running for arguably the best team from top to bottom in Cup.
However, Blaney is worth the price here, as Texas is one of his best tracks on the circuit. His 18.5 average finish isn't indicative of what he's proven at the track, so put him on your team, starting 10th.
Jimmie Johnson ($9,400)
Career at Texas: 34 starts, 7 wins, 1,152 laps led
Average finish at Texas: 10.9
This weekend could very well be the last time Johnson ever runs a stock car around Texas. At his time of retirement from full-time competition, he will go down as the best driver in track history.
In 34 starts at TMS, he's scored a track record seven victories, the latest coming in the spring 2017 race. That was the conclusion of a 10-race stretch at the track where the No. 48 car wound up in victory lane six times. Stout. His 1,152 laps led are 193 circuits ahead of the next driver on the list (Kyle Busch, 959).
Obviously Johnson's farewell tour hasn't gone according to plan, on pace to score his fewest top 10s in a single season (sits at nine). However, he does start 26th on Sunday, meaining there's plenty of points to gain by moving up the scoring pylon.
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Matt Kenseth ($7,100)
Career at Texas: 31 starts, 2 wins, 883 laps led
Average finish at Texas: 9.7
Think back to peak Kenseth for the better part of 15 years; always competitive on intermediate racetracks. Of course this season hasn't been anything close to that.
But when it comes to Texas -- and I'm sure whenever I put the No. 42 on my optimal lineup this season, you're probably wondering why, since Kenseth has an average finish just shy of 21st this season -- Kenseth is solid. His 883 laps led ranks third best in track history with the best average finish (9.7) of drivers with at least 10 starts.
Because of his DNF last week at Kansas Speedway, Kenseth will roll off 32nd for the 500-miler, his worst starting position of the season. Again, a plethora of points to be gained with just a solid run.
Bubba Wallace ($6,600)
Career at Texas: 5 starts, 0 wins, 2 laps led
Average finish at Texas: 18.8
Of all the intermediate tracks on the NASCAR schedule, Texas is among Wallace's best, posting an average finish of 18.8 in five starts, including his first top-10 finish in Cup on a non-superspeedway (2018).
Earlier this season, the No. 43 car started and finished the 500-miler in 14th, meaning no net gain, no additional points. This weekend he'll start 18th, and is hopeful to finish out his tenure at Richard Petty Motorsports strong.
Surely Wallace is looking forward to 2021, who will be running the No. 23 car, announced on Thursday (Oct. 22). Expectations are high for the newly-formed team, co-owned by Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan.
Ryan Preece ($5,900)
Career at Texas: 4 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Texas: 30.2
By having three drivers with a price tag of at least $9,400 in the lineup, you knew you were going to pay for it on the back half. But, maybe not?
Since the playoffs began at Darlington Raceway, Preece has turned his 2020 luck around, earning a career-best six top-20 finishes in a row, prior to placing 29th last weekend at Kansas. Because of that, the No. 37 car lines up 29th.
It's always concerning to have the driver that finished shotgun in the track's most recent event at the venue on your lineup, but expect another consistent run for Preece, giving you a small buffer.
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