Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 1

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for Week 1. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you read this article last year then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL. Let me also say that Week 1 specifically is the most unpredictable week of the NFL season, especially this year, as we've had no preseason games and limited-fashion training camps.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 1.Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 1 Picks

Lamar Jackson - CLE @ BAL ($8,100)

As usual, there are tons of viable QB options this week, but I want to kick things off by touching on the reigning NFL MVP. Lamar Jackson was like a video game come to life last year, finishing the season with over 3,100 passing yards and 1,200 rushing yards, as well as posting 43 total TDs. While it might be tough to replicate the massive output from last year, we have to believe the Ravens will give Jackson every opportunity to succeed, as Coach John Harbough has fully committed to his unique QB and OC Greg Roman's aggressive offensive scheme.

While I'm often content to pay down at QB and target stacks, the two exceptions to that rule are Jackson and KC's Patrick Mahomes. In this spot, we can grab Jackson against a Cleveland defensive unit that, while talented, is playing under both a new head coach and defensive coordinator with no preseason games to work things out. NFL players are pros and will pick up new schemes fairly quickly, but it wouldn't be at all surprising to see multiple blown assignments against this well-oiled Ravens offensive machine in Week 1 and I expect it to result in some big plays for Jackson.

Cam Newton - MIA @ NE ($6,100)

I'm gonna kinda talk out of both sides of my mouth here at the QB position, as one of the reasons that I like the aforementioned Lamar Jackson is due to his matchup against a Browns Defense that is learning a new scheme. Weirdly, my other QB selection is Cam Newton, who is...learning a new scheme.

There are obviously a lot of unknowns when it comes to Cam and his new role in New England. However, we do know that New England possesses one of the brightest offensive coordinators in the NFL in Josh McDaniels, we know that Newton is a former MVP that is undoubtedly talented (when healthy), and we know that this Miami defense - while upgraded during the offseason - allowed the most passing TDs in the league last year (39). So, while there are certainly some question marks here, I like the price vs. upside that Newton offers in GPPs.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Not much to add here, as most of my main builds will consist mainly of the two QBs highlighted in the original write-up. There are, of course, other solid options on this slate, with both QBs in the Seattle (Russell Wilson - $7.0k) vs Atlanta (Matt Ryan - $6.7k) matchup sticking out. A couple of players in less-than-great matchups, but that still have upside, are the often-overlooked duo of Josh Allen ($6.5k) and Matt Stafford ($6.2k).

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 1 Picks

Christian McCaffrey - LV @ CAR ($10,000)

CMC is such an obvious target that I started to not even take up any article space with him, but I will touch on him briefly just because he is such a key player on this slate. The price tag is MASSIVE and that's really the only downside to McCaffrey in this spot, as rostering him will require some sacrifices throughout the rest of your lineup. Carolina brought in a new coaching staff and QB, but we shouldn't expect CMC's role to change dramatically, as this Panthers offense will continue to run through him. Volume is gold in NFL DFS and McCaffrey is the king. If you can fit him in, play him.

Austin Ekeler - LAC @ CIN ($7,000)

Ekeler shined in the absence of Melvin Gordon at the start of last season and still posted some very strong fantasy games even after Gordon returned. With the disgruntled Gordon now in Denver, the door has been opened for Ekeler's volume to once again increase. While I don't expect him to become a traditional "workhorse" type of back that gets 20+ carries a game, I believe the elevated groundwork in combination with his prominent role in the passing game (with Tyrod The Checkdown God now at QB) should put him in line for 20-ish touches per game. He draws a matchup against a Bengals Defense that struggled last year and allowed the second-most yards per target in the NFL to opposing RBs in 2019.

Joe Mixon - LAC @ CIN ($6,700)

We touched on Austin Ekeler above, but I also like the RB on the other side of this game, as Joe Mixon slowly morphed into a true workhorse as last season progressed. All eyes will be on Cincy's top draft pick Joe Burrow, but Bengals HC Zac Taylor really wants to use Mixon in a similar fashion to how he utilized Todd Gurley while with the Rams, and Mixon's usage reflected that during the latter portion of last season, as he averaged nearly 24 touches per game during the back half of the year. While the Chargers Defense is rugged overall, they allowed 4.29 YPC to opposing RBs last season. The bigger concern here is the pace at which the Chargers want to play (molasses-like), but Mixon's talent and usage will give him a great chance to post a DK-friendly score.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Lots of great options at RB this week, with the big decision obviously being CMC and his massive price tag. If you can't get McCaffrey in, Minnesota's Dalvin Cook ($7.9k) is a juicy "consolation prize" and is one of the league's last true workhorse backs, while the back on the other side of the GB/MIN matchup, Aaron Jones ($6.9k), also brings tons of explosive upside to the table. Raiders second-year RB Josh Jacobs ($6.8k) should see plenty of ground work in a nice matchup against Carolina, though his lack of receiving work last season is a bit concerning with DK scoring...the same can be said for Seahawks lead back Chris Carson ($6.2k). Not a lot of discount options to love at the position, but Sony Michel ($4.6k), James Robinson ($4.0k), and Antonio Gibson ($4.0k) stick out as viable deep dive plays.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 1 Picks

Chris Godwin - TB @ NO ($7,100)

While I certainly view Tom Brady as an overall upgrade for the TB Bucs at the QB position, I don't know if that's the case when it comes to the fantasy production of receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, as Jameis Winston - while undoubtedly mistake-prone - was a capable passer and very aggressive downfield.

All that said, Godwin is on my radar this week in large part due to the current injury status of Mike Evans. Evans missed time down the stretch last season with a hamstring injury and is basically being referred to as a "Game Time Decision" for the season opener against the Saints. It's a situation I'll closely monitor, as Evans' absence would vault Godwin into "must play" territory.

D.K. Metcalf - SEA @ ATL ($5,800)

A common theme you'll see in this article throughout the season is my strategy when it comes to the WR position. I view it as a very volatile position, so I'm often unwilling to pay up for big-time WRs (of course there are always exceptions in DFS). When you combine this mindset with my tendency to spend up for volume at the RB position, we'll often be targeting players that can be labeled as "boom or bust" at the WR spot.

Seattle's second-year wideout D.K. Metcalf is a great example of that strategy this week, as the Seahawks offensive philosophy of establishing the run (puke) can often limit his output, but his talent - coupled with Russell Wilson's ability - makes it possible to outperform his reasonable $5,800 price tag. In addition to his freakish athletic ability, he also gets a juicy matchup (in a dome) against an Atlanta secondary that lost their best cover man in Desmond Trufant and allowed the second-most yards per target in the NFL last year. Metcalf finished last season with a healthy aDOT of 13.0 and is an explosive deep threat in a matchup that could evolve into a shootout.

Terry McLaurin - PHI @ WAS ($5,600)

McLaurin was one of the breakout stars of Week 1 last year and I'm willing to roll with him again this week. He enters the season as Washington's unquestioned number-one option (led Washington with a massive 20% target share last season) and has proven himself to be an explosive player that can post splash games for us (1,295 Total Air Yards in 2019). He lit this Philly secondary up last year posting DK scores of 26.5 and 27.0 in their two meetings. The Eagles' big offseason acquisition of Darius Slay does loom large, as the possibility of Slay shadowing McLaurin isn't ideal, but this is truly a "bet on talent, usage, and upside at a reasonable price" type of play that we're willing to gamble on in GPPs.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Mike Evans is listed as "Doubtful", which makes Chris Godwin one of the best options on the board and brings Scotty Miller ($4.0k) and/or Justin Watson ($3.8k) into the value-plays picture. I feel like the upside and floor of both Michael Thomas ($9.0k) and Davante Adams ($7.3k) is obvious and both standout as tremendous plays if you are paying up at WR. Lots of solid mid-range options this week, with Adam Thielen ($6.7), DJ Moore ($6.6k), and Allen Robinson ($6.5k) sticking out from the pack for me. Indy's TY Hilton ($5.8k) jumps out as a tremendous sub-$6k option, while both Marvin Jones Jr. ($5.5k) and DeSean Jackson ($4.9k) should benefit from injuries, but will be chalk city.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 1 Picks

George Kittle - ARI @ SF ($7,200)

Like Christian McCaffrey at RB, George Kittle looms large over his position. The Niner is the unquestioned top option at TE this week, with the combination of his talent, usage, and a matchup against a Cardinals Defense that was dead last in the NFL against the TE position last year making him very difficult to ignore. The downside here is his huge price tag, though I usually like to "go long or short" at TE, meaning I'll spend all the way up for a smash play or completely punt the position. If you are in a position to fit Kittle into your roster builds don't hesitate to fire him up.

Hayden Hurst - SEA @ ATL ($4,300)

The only team that was worse against TEs than the Arizona Cardinals last season was the Seattle Seahawks, and while Seattle has tried to sure up its secondary during the offseason, I'm still intrigued with new Falcons TE Hayden Hurst in this spot. Hurst is an obviously talented player but dealt with multiple injuries while with the Ravens, which landed him firmly behind Mark Andrews on the depth chart. He gets a chance at a fresh start in an explosive Falcons offense and will be tasked with replacing free-agent loss Austin Hooper. Hooper was a huge fantasy producer for Atlanta last season and we can assume that they will attempt to slip Hurst into the same pass-catching-heavy role in this high-powered offense.

SATURDAY UPDATE: It looks like Mark Andrews ($6.0k) should be in line for more snaps thanks to the departure of Hayden Hurst. Philly's Zach Ertz ($5.8k) is always a target monster, but his volume should be even higher than normal due to the Eagles banged-up receiving corps. Miami's Mike Gesicki ($4.5k) has all the physical tools to be a top-tier TE and his production started to reflect that at the end of last season. He's an intriguing, contrarian option in GPP formats. Lots of us like to punt the TE position and the Jets Chris Herndon ($3.3k) is perhaps our best bet for production at a dirt-cheap price tag, as Sam Darnold loves throwing to tight ends and New York's wide-receiving corps is spotty at best.

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