By the time the NFL slate reaches the late games, a good part of your matchup will likely be decided. Maybe you are trying to make a gallant comeback after your opponent had Rob Gronkowski on Thursday. Or maybe your team will be comfortably ahead and you just need to pad that lead enough to help you sleep easy on Sunday/Monday night. Anyway, here are my picks for who will boom and bust in the late games (which includes the annual two Monday Night Football games in Week 1, a reminder that God loves us).

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Week 1 Booms

QB Sam Bradford, PHI: Count me among the many that believe the Eagles are going to put up a ton of points this season. Chip Kelly quarterbacks have been fantasy producers and they were players that Chip did not handpick for his system. New Falcons coach Dan Quinn is looked at as a defensive guru, but his unit will have it's hands full with the fast-paced Eagles offense. Bradford has much more talent than previous Eagles QBs Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez and going from a Brian Schottenheimer offense in St. Louis to a Kelly offense in Philadelphia is like the difference between night(man) and day(man). I think Bradford will be a Top 5 QB this week and for the season, on his way to winning the Comeback Player of the Year award.

 

QB Eli Manning, NYG and Tony Romo, DAL: I fully expect both quarterbacks to put up numbers in this NFC East battle featuring mediocre defenses. These games usually devolve into furious finishes that rely on passing during the 2 minute drill. Romo, in particular, will be asked to shoulder more of the load than last year thanks to DeMarco Murray's defection to Philly. Both are viable QB1s.

 

RB Doug Martin, TB: Martin is a mix of last year's Lamar Miller and Mark Ingram, in that his name brings up bad memories for owners from previous seasons. The man they once called Muscle Hamster had rough 2013 and 2014 campaigns after setting the league on fire as a rookie back in 2012. Fantasy owners that want to live in the past can point to those disappointments as a reason to avoid Martin altogether. But anyone who watched the preseason saw that the Bucs running back was running with speed and power again after losing 15 pounds in the offseason. A Week 1 matchup against a poor run defense in Tennessee is exactly what the doctor ordered for Martin owners nervous that they drafted a lemon.

 

Calvin Johnson, DET and WR Julio Jones, ATL: I am lumping these two together because everybody expects them to boom week in and week out. This is more for players of daily games.  If you are going to pay for receivers, pay for these two.  Johnson has gotten over the ankle issues that plagued him last season and has been rested all preseason. The only thing scarier than Megatron is a rested, hungry Megatron.

Jones has always had the talent to be the highest-scoring receiver in fantasy, but has never been able to bust through his ceiling due to system issues or other mouths in the offense that had to be fed. Those two issues no longer apply. Atlanta's offense under Kyle Shanahan is an all-you-can-eat buffet for the X receiver, which happens to be the position Jones plays. Harry Douglas is now in Tennessee, Roddy White is old and banged up, and Tony Gonzalez remains retired. Matt Ryan will go at his favorite target early and often against a porous Eagles secondary that was lit up by passing attacks all of last season and did not get the upgrades needed to make them competent.

 

WR John Brown, ARI: This is a name that isn't as obvious, despite some preseason hype. I personally wrote about Brown in the preseason as someone that could play the T.Y. Hilton role in Bruce Arians' offense, so I'll keep this simple. Brown put up respeactable numbers as a rookie with bad quarterbacks throwing him the ball for most of the time. He gets back Carson Palmer in a home game against a Saints defense that varies between terrible and abysmal. Larry Fitzgerald is the bigger name and the safer play, but based on Brown's usage in the preseason and his raw tools, I expect him to be the highest scorer out of the Cardinals receivers on Sunday.

 

WR Stevie Johnson, SD: Ever since Vincent Jackson left, figuring out who will be the leading Chargers receiver in a given week has been a guessing game. Keenan Allen looked to be the rock in 2013, but disappointed in 2014. Antonio Gates continues to produce, but father time will one day catch up with him and he is suspended the first four games on this season. Malcom Floyd and Ladarius Green consistently underperform, and Green is unlikely to suit up on Sunday due to a concussion. Someone will need to catch those targets from Philip Rivers. Enter Johnson, who is a better fit in the slot with the Chargers than he was lining up for the 49ers last year. Johnson put up good numbers with the Bills despite bad QB play, so pairing with Rivers could lead to a bonanza. I would comfortably start him as a WR3 or Flex if you are in a pinch.

 

Bucs Defense: Many people will be scared off by Tampa's rough season that left them with the number 1 pick, but this defense has real appeal, especially in Week 1. Gerald McCoy and LaVonte David are legitimate studs and Lovie Smith's Bears were the kings of forcing turnovers. All that being factored in with Marcus Mariota making his first NFL start on the road leaves the Bucs defense as a real sleeper for fantasy leagues.  Sure Tampa's offense worries you, but they aren't exactly going up against the 85 Bears.

 

Week 1 Busts

QB Drew Brees, NO: The Post-Jimmy Graham Era begins in Arizona. The Saints have rebuilt their roster to resemble a running team, with Mark Ingram leading the way. C.J. Spiller has officially been declared out this week, leaving Brees one less reliable option in the passing game. Former LSU teammates Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu hope to make Brees look like the turnover prone QB he was last year. If you have a better option than the Saints signal caller, I would consider it.

 

RB Joique Bell, DET: The amount of love Bell received in drafts this summer flummoxed me. His ADP as the 27th running back just seems short-sighted.  He was injured for almost all of the preseason and never has shown all that much talent. I expect Ameer Abdullah to get a fair share of reps in his inevitable rise to becoming the Lions starting back. Joique's hype is a product of worthless depth charts that are thrown out the door once on-field production begins. Avoid him this week and for the entire season.

 

RB Carlos Hyde, SF: Retirements, defections and turnover. Those were the three key words for the 49ers this offseason. Hyde looks around now as the lead running back in San Fran, but surrounded by much less talent. I believe the Vikings are a playoff team this year, led by Norv Turner's offensive system and Mike Zimmer's defensive knowledge. I expect the Niners to be down early and have to turn to Colin Kaepernick and the passing game earlier than they would like.

 

RB Bishop Sankey, TEN: Nothing in Sankey's tape from last season was all that exciting. I broke down how much I like the Bucs defense earlier in this piece, so that is strike one against Sankey. I truly believe David Cobb would be getting the lion's share of the carries if he was healthy. Having a running quarterback usually helps the starting running back's numbers but I think Sankey is too limited talent-wise and matchup-wise to be worthy of anything more than a Flex flier.

 

WR Mike Evans, TB: Hamstring injuries are tricky business, and there is nothing worse than watching your player struggle to a 0 as he limps around or re-aggravates something. Dealing with a rookie quarterback making the first start of his career is scary as well. I would avoid Evans altogether if you have another player that can contribute similar numbers. When he's healthy, he's a stud but that will likely not be the case this Sunday.

 

WR Roddy White, ATL: People are still drafting and starting Hot Rod because of previous seasons' performances. White is now a 33-year-old receiver coming off a season where he failed to put up 1,000 yards despite being in a pass-happy offense and opposing defenses focusing on Julio Jones. As I said earlier, Jones is now by far the focal point of the new offense and White is battling elbow problems. While the Eagles do present a potential tasty matchup, I would pass on White.

 

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