MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/22/2025)

July 22, 2025

Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/22/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Kyle Manzardo, Addison Barger, Alec Burleson, Nick Castellanos, and Cam Smith.

Welcome Back, RotoBallers! We have a pretty full slate of games ahead of us. The weather is looking solid all around the nation, and I haven't noticed any areas that we should avoid today. Keep an eye on the weather, though, as it can change at any minute, and we don't want to get caught in a bad spot. Now, let's go out and hit some dingers, shall we!

The process behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted-ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price regarding betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/22/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Tuesday, July 22:

• Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians
• Addison Barger, Toronto Blue Jays
• Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals
• Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies
• Cam Smith, Houston Astros

Kyle Manzardo OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kyle Manzardo just homered in last night's game against the Orioles, and now he gets another great matchup against the home run-prone righty in Brandon Young. Young has specifically been hurt by LHH this season, where he has a 2.93 HR/9 in his six starts this season. He is also sporting an absurd .676 SLG and .463 wOBA.

He also has the highest Barrel% on the slate at 11.8% and HardHit% at 49.4%. Cleveland has plenty of LHH on the team squad, so let me show you why I like Manzardo the most.

Kyle Manzardo for the lead ⚾️ pic.twitter.com/rZ0YXA6vE8

— MLB (@MLB) July 22, 2025

Manzardo has a solid HardHit% of 40.4% to go with an 11.6% Barrel% this season. 11 of his 15 homers on the season have come off RHP. Brandon Young throws two pitches the most, his four-seamer and his split-finger. Manzardo has five home runs off those two pitches from right-handed pitchers. The only other person to even have one off the split finger is Carlos Santana.

Manzardo has an XSLG of .630 off the split finger. Manzardo grades out as one of the better options to hit a home run off of Young in this game. Plus, I feel like we are getting great odds on him.

Addison Barger OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Addison Barger is having a breakout season this year. He has been a crucial part of this Blue Jays offense and has truly helped them surge to the top of the AL East. Barger gets an interesting matchup here against the rookie Cam Schlittler, who is making his second start of his career. Schlittler, in his debut, gave up two home runs, both to lefties.

It is pretty early to look deep into it, but I do like the hot hand in Barger, who is coming off his 15th home run of the season just a couple of days ago.

Addison Barger with an absolute BOMB

He has an .850 OPS this season, 3rd in the AL among right fielders with at least 250 ABs

Trailing only Aaron Judge and George Springer 👀pic.twitter.com/VkbLTLWFrr

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) July 20, 2025

Barger has shown tremendous power at the plate this season with an excellent 54% HardHit% and a 14.1% Barrel%. The season, 14 of his 15 home runs have come off RHP, and he has hit both the slider and four-seam well this season. This is beneficial for us, as this accounts for over 80% of Schlittler's pitches in his debut. Obviously, those numbers will come down, but it's encouraging that Barger has performed well against those pitches.

Alec Burleson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+ DraftKings Sportsbook)

I really hope he plays in this one, as I think he has a good chance to hit one out of Coors Field. Burleson did leave last night's game with a bruise on his right foot. If he doesn't play, I also like Victor Scott II.

Back to Burleson, though. He has mashed RHP this season, with 10 of his 12 home runs coming against them, and now he lines up in Coors Field against an RHP. Burleson sports a .504 SLG and a .193 ISO against a RHP.

Bradley Blalock has been destroyed at home this season; he has given up 18 runs in three outings, and three of those were for home runs. LHH especially hit him hard this season as they have a .660 SLG against him, and he has a 3.19 HR/9. Blalock has been one of the worst starters in the league, and if it weren't for the Rockies, I'm not sure he would have a spot on a major league roster.

His four-seamer and slider have been the ones he has been damaged on, which is perfect for Burleson, who has hit both of those well this season and for six home runs. Hopefully, he ends up playing because this is a big spot for Burleson.

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Nick Castellanos OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Richard Fitts might be one of the best pitchers to take advantage of on this slate. He has an absurd 3.05 HR/9 against RHH this season, which is where all seven home runs have come from in his eight starts. It's not often that we get someone with reverse splits like this. He has an SLG of .542 and is sporting a 43.7% HardHit% and a 10.7% Barrel%. He is also putting up an 88% Z-Contact%.

I landed on Nick Castellanos, but I also think Trea Turner is in line for a home run soon as well. Nick has hit RHPs harder than LHPs this season, with a slightly higher SLG at. 432 and a.170 ISO. This season, 10 of his 12 home runs have come against RHP, and although he has a lower 36% HardHit%, he does still have a 9.1% Barrel% that he can use to his advantage against Fitts.

I think we are getting some pretty good odds on Castellanos here at +425, as I think a lot of bettors will lean towards Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper, who have been hot at the plate for the Phillies.

Cam Smith OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+830 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Eduardo Rodriguez has been an interesting pitcher this season, experiencing some ups and downs. He has given up 16 home runs in 16 games this season with a 1.79 HR/9. It is a bit worrisome, however, that his HardHit% is 35.2% which is below what I normally like to go against. His Barrel% is 9% which is encouraging.

Smith has had a very good rookie season and has been crushing LHP as well. He has a .610 SLG and a .288 ISO. Four of his seven home runs have come against LHP, and with it being hot as it is in Phoenix, the balls should have no issue flying in this one. Smith has a solid HardHit% of 43.7% and an average exit velocity of 89 mph. I'm liking the splits these two have in this spot, and it could be a big spot for Houston as a team.

The odds on this are super juicy too at +830. It's probably a long shot on the day, but I think it has solid potential.

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