X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ATC Projections - Overvalued and Undervalued Pitchers for 2022

Fantasy baseball managers should be aware that Ariel Cohen's industry-leading ATC Projections are live for the 2022 season. That means it's time to dive into the numbers to see what the fantasy takeaway is for key players.

Keep in mind that projections aren't meant to be viewed as predictions. They encapsulate the most likely outcome based on various statistical factors. There's no way to fully account for injuries, COVID, or other intangible factors. That said, these projections go a long way toward determining how we should view individual players on draft day.

I recently covered hitters who may be overvalued or undervalued based on ATC projections. Now, it's time to do the same for pitchers. I'm sticking to starters for the obvious reason that reliever roles are extremely volatile, so projections for bullpen arms should be taken with a grain of salt. I'll also ignore wins in this equation because you really shouldn't be chasing that category on draft day. Instead, let's focus on ratios, strikeouts, and workload.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Walker Buehler

2022 ATC Projections: 3.56 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 198 K, 192 IP
2021 MLB Statline: 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 212 K, 207.2 IP

This one shouldn't be surprising if you've already read Ariel's article regarding risk assessment in projection systems. Buehler is specifically highlighted because his projection might confuse baseball fans who are aware that he finished with the third-best ERA among qualified starters and was fourth in Cy Young voting last season.

Here's the fundamental issue, explained succinctly by Ariel himself.

...in every season since 2018 – most of his earned run estimators are not only higher than his ERA … they are much higher. Last year’s 2.47 ERA was over a run lower than both of the corresponding xFIP and SIERA indicators. A six tenths of a run career difference between ERA and SIERA cannot sustain indefinitely.

It's possible that he continues to be one of those players that manages to perform better than his projections. If his ERA does go up by .6 to make up for the difference between his career ERA and SIERA, that still puts him right around the 3.00 mark and among the better starters in the league. There isn't much reason to worry with Buehler but be aware there is a reason he is still behind Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Corbin Burnes, at least in my rankings.

 

Jack Flaherty

2022 ATC Projections: 3.71 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 172 K, 160 IP
2021 MLB Statline: 3.22 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 85 K, 78.1 IP

One of the toughest pitchers to gauge properly on draft day, we have ace potential with bullpen downside. Flaherty's fantasy stock went through the roof after a blazing end to 2019 where he looked like an ace in the making. A disappointing 2020 followed by an injury-plagued 2021 have put him in the no man's land where you don't want to pull the trigger too soon or let him slip too far.

If you believe in his ratios projected over a full season's worth of innings, he could be a steal. A deeper look under the hood reveals some causes for concern, though.

His 11.6% swinging-strike rate was the lowest of his career and he got by with a .233 BABIP. The ATC projections actually reflect some optimism because he greatly outperformed his 3.92 SIERA last season. He's a talented pitcher but consistency is a big issue.

Flaherty's strikeout prowess will come into play more if he can put together something resembling an SP1 workload. Nick Mariano's CUTTER projections have Flaherty pitching 180 innings and posting 203 strikeouts. Surely, the upside is that of a fantasy SP1 but even if health is on his side, expect an ERA closer to 4.00 than 3.00.

 

Blake Snell

2022 ATC Projections: 3.79 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 175 K, 145 IP
2021 MLB Statline: 4.20 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 170 K, 128.2 IP

Snell only accumulated 128 2/3 innings pitched in 2021 because he was brought along slowly to start the year, lasting more than five innings in just two of his first 11 starts. He then missed the last three weeks of the season with a groin injury. ATC expects a small bump up to 145 IP while Steamer is more optimistic at 158 IP and Nick Mariano's CUTTER projections go up to 162 IP. That discrepancy shows in the various K totals allotted to him, as ATC says 175 but CUTTER gives him 199.

We already know Snell's upside - Cy Young winner and bona fide ace. He's not yet 30-years-old and should be in a great situation to succeed with a favorable pitcher's park on a contending team. There may not be a drastic difference between his output for this season and last season but he seems to be getting discounted way too much in drafts.

 

Marcus Stroman

2022 ATC Projections: 4.01 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 142 K, 175 IP
2021 MLB Statline: 3.02 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 158 K, 179 IP

Never shy about speaking his mind, I'm sure Mr. Stroman would have some choice words about his forecast for 2022. Although Mets fans would have loved to keep Stroman around, he signed with the Cubs instead. That represents almost no change in park factor and not much difference in terms of run support, sadly. Stroman's projected ratios all take a hit due to the simple law of regression, though.

Stroman's 21.6% K% last year was the highest of his career but that's still low compared to league average and makes him more dependent on batted-ball outcomes. His .286 BABIP and 3.95 SIERA suggest he could see a decline in his ratios, especially since he also outperformed his career marks last year. He has always been good at limiting home runs, so that is a factor that could keep him on the lower end of his projections. Ultimately, the lack of strikeouts and probable lack of wins cause any drop in ERA or WHIP to be a deal-breaker in terms of drafting him as a top-50 SP.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez

2022 ATC Projections: 3.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 185 K, 177 IP
2021 MLB Statline: 4.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 185 K, 157.2 IP

Not too many starters can gain a full run over their previous year's ERA but that's what ATC sees for E-Rod. In this case, moving to Comerica Park and facing AL Central opponents instead of the AL East will work in his favor. It's more than that, however, as projections don't tend to shift as much due to park factors or proposed schedules because there are so many variables at play.

In Rodriguez's case, he's a pitcher coming off a career-best 3.65 SIERA and 20.4% K-BB% yet ended up with a career-worst 4.74 ERA. A .363 BABIP and a career-low 68.9% strand rate are the obvious culprits. As someone who is excellent at limiting hard contact, ranking in the 90th percentile or higher in average exit velocity three of his past five seasons, Rodriguez will benefit from the move to a pitcher-friendly park and division.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF