X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ATC Projections - Overvalued and Undervalued Pitchers for 2022

Fantasy baseball managers should be aware that Ariel Cohen's industry-leading ATC Projections are live for the 2022 season. That means it's time to dive into the numbers to see what the fantasy takeaway is for key players.

Keep in mind that projections aren't meant to be viewed as predictions. They encapsulate the most likely outcome based on various statistical factors. There's no way to fully account for injuries, COVID, or other intangible factors. That said, these projections go a long way toward determining how we should view individual players on draft day.

I recently covered hitters who may be overvalued or undervalued based on ATC projections. Now, it's time to do the same for pitchers. I'm sticking to starters for the obvious reason that reliever roles are extremely volatile, so projections for bullpen arms should be taken with a grain of salt. I'll also ignore wins in this equation because you really shouldn't be chasing that category on draft day. Instead, let's focus on ratios, strikeouts, and workload.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Walker Buehler

2022 ATC Projections: 3.56 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 198 K, 192 IP
2021 MLB Statline: 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 212 K, 207.2 IP

This one shouldn't be surprising if you've already read Ariel's article regarding risk assessment in projection systems. Buehler is specifically highlighted because his projection might confuse baseball fans who are aware that he finished with the third-best ERA among qualified starters and was fourth in Cy Young voting last season.

Here's the fundamental issue, explained succinctly by Ariel himself.

...in every season since 2018 – most of his earned run estimators are not only higher than his ERA … they are much higher. Last year’s 2.47 ERA was over a run lower than both of the corresponding xFIP and SIERA indicators. A six tenths of a run career difference between ERA and SIERA cannot sustain indefinitely.

It's possible that he continues to be one of those players that manages to perform better than his projections. If his ERA does go up by .6 to make up for the difference between his career ERA and SIERA, that still puts him right around the 3.00 mark and among the better starters in the league. There isn't much reason to worry with Buehler but be aware there is a reason he is still behind Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Corbin Burnes, at least in my rankings.

 

Jack Flaherty

2022 ATC Projections: 3.71 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 172 K, 160 IP
2021 MLB Statline: 3.22 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 85 K, 78.1 IP

One of the toughest pitchers to gauge properly on draft day, we have ace potential with bullpen downside. Flaherty's fantasy stock went through the roof after a blazing end to 2019 where he looked like an ace in the making. A disappointing 2020 followed by an injury-plagued 2021 have put him in the no man's land where you don't want to pull the trigger too soon or let him slip too far.

If you believe in his ratios projected over a full season's worth of innings, he could be a steal. A deeper look under the hood reveals some causes for concern, though.

His 11.6% swinging-strike rate was the lowest of his career and he got by with a .233 BABIP. The ATC projections actually reflect some optimism because he greatly outperformed his 3.92 SIERA last season. He's a talented pitcher but consistency is a big issue.

Flaherty's strikeout prowess will come into play more if he can put together something resembling an SP1 workload. Nick Mariano's CUTTER projections have Flaherty pitching 180 innings and posting 203 strikeouts. Surely, the upside is that of a fantasy SP1 but even if health is on his side, expect an ERA closer to 4.00 than 3.00.

 

Blake Snell

2022 ATC Projections: 3.79 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 175 K, 145 IP
2021 MLB Statline: 4.20 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 170 K, 128.2 IP

Snell only accumulated 128 2/3 innings pitched in 2021 because he was brought along slowly to start the year, lasting more than five innings in just two of his first 11 starts. He then missed the last three weeks of the season with a groin injury. ATC expects a small bump up to 145 IP while Steamer is more optimistic at 158 IP and Nick Mariano's CUTTER projections go up to 162 IP. That discrepancy shows in the various K totals allotted to him, as ATC says 175 but CUTTER gives him 199.

We already know Snell's upside - Cy Young winner and bona fide ace. He's not yet 30-years-old and should be in a great situation to succeed with a favorable pitcher's park on a contending team. There may not be a drastic difference between his output for this season and last season but he seems to be getting discounted way too much in drafts.

 

Marcus Stroman

2022 ATC Projections: 4.01 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 142 K, 175 IP
2021 MLB Statline: 3.02 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 158 K, 179 IP

Never shy about speaking his mind, I'm sure Mr. Stroman would have some choice words about his forecast for 2022. Although Mets fans would have loved to keep Stroman around, he signed with the Cubs instead. That represents almost no change in park factor and not much difference in terms of run support, sadly. Stroman's projected ratios all take a hit due to the simple law of regression, though.

Stroman's 21.6% K% last year was the highest of his career but that's still low compared to league average and makes him more dependent on batted-ball outcomes. His .286 BABIP and 3.95 SIERA suggest he could see a decline in his ratios, especially since he also outperformed his career marks last year. He has always been good at limiting home runs, so that is a factor that could keep him on the lower end of his projections. Ultimately, the lack of strikeouts and probable lack of wins cause any drop in ERA or WHIP to be a deal-breaker in terms of drafting him as a top-50 SP.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez

2022 ATC Projections: 3.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 185 K, 177 IP
2021 MLB Statline: 4.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 185 K, 157.2 IP

Not too many starters can gain a full run over their previous year's ERA but that's what ATC sees for E-Rod. In this case, moving to Comerica Park and facing AL Central opponents instead of the AL East will work in his favor. It's more than that, however, as projections don't tend to shift as much due to park factors or proposed schedules because there are so many variables at play.

In Rodriguez's case, he's a pitcher coming off a career-best 3.65 SIERA and 20.4% K-BB% yet ended up with a career-worst 4.74 ERA. A .363 BABIP and a career-low 68.9% strand rate are the obvious culprits. As someone who is excellent at limiting hard contact, ranking in the 90th percentile or higher in average exit velocity three of his past five seasons, Rodriguez will benefit from the move to a pitcher-friendly park and division.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Najee Harris

Says He's Expecting to Play Against Chiefs
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Departs Monday with Quad Injury
Franz Wagner

Collects Double-Double in Blowout Win
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Achieves Rare Numbers at EuroBasket
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Dominates Against Sweden
Stefon Diggs

Expected to Suit Up in Week 1
Kristaps Porzingis

Finding Form at EuroBasket
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Suffers Minor Injury at EuroBasket
DJ Moore

Bears Experimenting with DJ Moore in Backfield
Rome Odunze

Could Move All Around the Offense
Carolina Panthers

Dave Canales Comfortable With Panthers' Young Receivers
Quinshon Judkins

Not Considering NCAA Return
Dallas Goedert

Healthy for Week 1
Marvin Mims Jr.

Returns to Practice Monday
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Carted Off Monday With Knee Injury
Jason Adam

Diagnosed With Ruptured Left Quadriceps Tendon
Victor Wembanyama

Looking "Quite Stellar"
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Scratched on Monday
Matthew Stafford

Expected to Start in Week 1
Edward Cabrera

Heading to Injured List With Elbow Sprain
Najee Harris

Cleared for Contact, Could Play in Week 1
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Harry Ford

Called Up for Major-League Debut
Victor Scott II

Activated From Injured List
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Dealing With Hamstring Tightness, Expects to Play Monday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Agrees to a One-Year Contract with Milwaukee
Kyrie Irving

"Healing Up Great"
Dante Exum

Mavs Agree on a One-Year Deal
Jaylen Warren

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Steelers
De'Von Achane

Practicing Monday, on Track to Play in Week 1
Quinshon Judkins

Could Report to Browns This Week
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs, Trent McDuffie Not Expected to Finalize Extension
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Dameon Pierce

Ahead of Schedule, Ready for Season
Jordan Love

May Wear Thumb Brace During Season
Chicago Bears

Bears Head Coach Admits Offense Could Face Learning Curve
Matt Chapman

Leaves Early on Sunday, Expects to Play Monday
A.J. Brown

Says He'll Be Active For Season Opener
Luis Garcia

to Make Season Debut on Monday
Max Scherzer

Exits Due to Back Tightness
Taylor Ward

Exits Early After Collison
Braelon Allen

Says He Has a Lot Left to Prove
Sal Stewart

Reds Promoting Sal Stewart to Majors
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Randy Rodríguez

Randy Rodriguez to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic to Miss the Rest of EuroBasket
Denny Hamlin

Picking Up Where He Left Off At Darlington
Kyle Larson

The Sky Is The Limit for Kyle Larson at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

a Strong DFS Play at Darlington This Weekend
Tyler Reddick

Shouldn't Be Overlooked at Darlington This Weekend
Alex Bowman

An Easy Place-Differential Play in DFS This Weekend
Ty Gibbs

Could Be Strong at Darlington This Weekend
Erik Jones

Has Best Darlington Qualifying Effort Since Last Win
Zane Smith

Hopeful For Another Solid Run At Darlington
Aroldis Chapman

Agrees to Contract Extension
Juan Soto

Homers Twice in Loss
Nick Kurtz

Avoids Serious Injury
MacKenzie Gore

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Reaches 25-Homer, 25-Steal Milestone
Chris Sale

Activated on Saturday
Dansby Swanson

Homers Twice, Drives in Six in Win
Joe Burrow

Bengals Feel Joe Burrow Just had "the Best Training Camp of his Career"
Dallas Mavericks

Olivier-Maxence Prosper Waived by the Mavs
Lauri Markkanen

Dominant in Win Over Great Britain
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Leads Serbia to a Win
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Shines Versus Portugal
De'Von Achane

Should be Ready for Week 1
Jose Alvarado

"Good" After Recent Fall
Lauri Markkanen

Torches Sweden
Neemias Queta

Dominates in EuroBasket Opener
Kawhi Leonard

Clippers Not Allowing Kawhi Leonard to Play Back-to-Backs
Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks Looking to Trade Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Tyrese Haliburton

Expects to Return in 15 Months

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP