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The NASCAR circuit heads to Dover International Speedway this weekend, otherwise known as the Monster Mile. And over the last handful of years, the same drivers seem to dominate.
Of active drivers in the field, only eight have won at Dover in the last decade. With names such as Jimmie Johnson (who has a track record 11 wins), Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon not in the field, its been the same drivers at the front: Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, etc.
It shouldn't come as a surprise to who the favorites for the race are this weekend (check names above). But when it comes to setting a fantasy lineup, you'll likely be able to have a maximum of two of these drivers on your team, depending on who you fill your lineup with. Let's see which of those drivers you should consider.
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Martin Truex Jr.
(DraftKings $11,900 | FanDuel $14,000 | DK SportsBook +350)
If I didn't spoil it already, Martin Truex Jr. is my pick to win the race on Sunday. Dating back to the spring race at Dover two years ago, Truex's numbers are stout: One win, three runner-up finishes.
For that reason alone, Truex should be on your team. Plus, he's always ran well at Dover. Flashback to 2007 when he scored his first career Cup win at Dover. The New Jersey native has always been consistent at the Monster Mile, and I don't see that changing this weekend.
Another thing to consider, Truex is the only driver with multiple victories this season through 12 races. The No. 19 team has done so three times. All of his wins have been in the 750 horsepower, low downforce package. Guess which package NASCAR is running this weekend? Yup, you got it, the won Truex has won three times in this season.
Starting from the pole, I expect Truex to lead a ton of laps on Sunday. It's not a surprise he's the favorite.
Kyle Larson
(DraftKings $11,600 | FanDuel $13,500 | DK SportsBook +450)
If there's one guy that can challenge Truex, I would give the nod to Kyle Larson. Sure, he's earned just one victory at Dover, but has been in contention for another handful, including a stomping of 241 laps led in 2017... only to finish second to Jimmie Johnson.
In 12 starts at Dover, Larson has his lone 2019 victory (last time he competed at the track), six top-five and nine top-10 finishes, leading a total of 617 laps. Quite impressive.
If I were a betting man, I would have Larson and Truex in my lineup and figure out the rest afterward. But consider this, they are the two favorites or the win this weekend, and cost the most on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Brad Keselowski
(DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $11,000 | DK SportsBook +1300)
Shockingly, Brad Keselowski was a non-factor last weekend at Darlington. Finishing three laps down in 24th was one of the more surprising runs of the year. But I don't expect that to translate over to Dover.
For a second straight week Keselowski will be working without his normal crew chief, Jeremy Bullins, due to COVID-19 protocols. Instead, he'll be working with Grant Huchens, as he did at Darlington.
But I don't expect the fill-in to slow down Keselowski. Lining up 15th on Sunday, the No. 2 Ford has value, as he won at Dover (2012) and finished top 10 in both races last season. Throughout his career, he's been hit or miss at Dover, with an average finish of 12.6. Hopefully for you, the No. 2 is on point this week.
Alex Bowman
(DraftKings $9,200 | FanDuel $10,000 | DK SportsBook +1800)
This might come as a surprise to some, but Alex Bowman has been quietly good at Dover over the last two years. In the last four races at the Monster Mile, he's scored three top-five finishes, including a runner-up to Truex in 2019.
Starting 16th on Sunday, Bowman is someone that could suit your lineup well, should he earn another top five. The problem is, the No. 48 Chevrolet has been inconsistent this year, despite showing speed more weeks than not. Like his win at Richmond Raceway, it's all about how the team finishes races.
Bowman is a middle of the road pick this weekend, and probably priced as such. If you're betting on drivers to straight up win the race, putting money down on a Hendrick Motorsports car at 18-1 could be worth it.
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Kurt Busch
(DraftKings $8,700 | FanDuel $8,500| DK SportsBook +6000)
By no means is Kurt Bucs having a stellar season. In fact, after wrecking out last week at Darlington, the 2004 Cup champion said the No. 1 Chevrolet isn't able to do what he wants it do in traffic. And it wasn't just a Darlington problem, it's been an issue all season.
Surprisingly, Busch sits 20th in the championship standings, 28 points below the cutline. Since the third race of the season at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the No. 1 team doesn't have a finish better than 13th. And quite honestly, I'd be bullish about putting putting him in my lineup at Dover.
In the doubleheader weekend last year, Busch wrecked out on lap 6 in the first event, only to finish 13th the following day. Since joining Chip Ganassi Racing in 2019, he's scored one top-10 finish in four starts at the Monster Mile. Good news is, the No. 1 car starts 28th, meaning there's a lot of positive points on the table.
Bubba Wallace
(DraftKings $6,900 | FanDuel $5,200 | DK SportsBook +20000)
It doesn't take a genius to figure out the first third of the 2021 season hasn't gone the way 23XI Racing would have hoped for. But there's reason for optimism heading into Dover.
On paper, Wallace's stats at Dover don't stand out. While competing with Richard Petty Motorsports, he had a best finish of 20th, though placing no worse than 27th. But those numbers can be deceiving, given the equipment he was working with.
Flashback to 2017, Wallace was pacing the field in the spring Xfinity race at Dover, en route to winning the second stage. But then running for Roush Fenway Racing, the team's last race was scheduled to be Dover and the team chased an extra incentive by leading at the conclusion of the second stage. Come the checkered flag, he finished eighth.
Wallace is no slouch at Dover and worth the price.
Daniel Suarez
(DraftKings $6,300 | FanDuel $6,700 | DK SportsBook +20000)
Speaking of not being a slouch at Dover, Daniel Suarez fits that category. When competing for Joe Gibbs Racing, this was arguably his best track on the circuit.
Between 2017 and 2018, Suarez didn't finish outside the top 10 in four starts at Dover. His best outing was third in spring of 2018, only behind Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer. When he jumped to Stewart-Haas Racing in 2019, the Mexico native posted two additional top 15s.
Suarez knows how to get around the Monster Mile -- dominating an Xfinity race at the track in 2016, leading 123 of 200 circuits. Startup team Trackhouse Racing has shown promise in certain races this season; Dover could be its next.
Corey LaJoie
(DraftKings $5,700| FanDuel $3,000 | DK SportsBook +100000)
Corey LaJoie's first season with Spire Motorsports hasn't gone as planned, but the No. 7 Chevrolet has shown flashes of speed. He, too, knows how to wheel a car around Dover.
In 2016, racing for underfunded JGL Racing, LaJoie finished a career best sixth in the fall Xfinity race. In 2012, he was victorious in the K&N East race at Dover.
Starting 26th means LaJoie has some room to wiggle with. In seven Cup starts at the track -- all for underfunded teams -- he has an average result of 30.1 at Dover, but is coming off a personal best of 23rd last August.
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