RADIO
Coming off the Easter bye week, NASCAR heads to southern Virginia to the oldest track on the circuit, Martinsville Speedway. And unlike two weeks ago where so much was unpredictable heading into the Bristol dirt race, I think we'll see a sense of normalcy this weekend.
Sure, Martinsville is a short track, and oftentimes brings out the worst in drivers, sometimes leading to fisticuffs after the race. But as Denny Hamlin said, "That's short track racing." Tempers flare, and fenders rub, but Martinsville produces some of the best racing on the schedule.
If you're into NASCAR DFS (and you most likely are if you're reading this article!), definitely go top heavy at Martinsville, as some of the biggest names in the sport shine bright at the famed paperclip. But a name to avoid this weekend: Kevin Harvick, who hasn't found a grip on Martinsville since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014, even costing him a shot at the 2020 championship just five months ago. With that said, we're going to use this lineup as top guns you might want to consider using, or even putting two on your roster. But there's a whole lot of drivers that are undervalued heading into Saturday night's 500-lapper.
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Martin Truex Jr.
(DraftKings $12,000 | FanDuel $14,000 | DK SportsBook +500)
It should come to no surprise that Martin Truex Jr. is the favorite -- across the board -- for Saturday's race.
Despite starting seventh, Truex is the most expensive driver on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and is the favorite to win the race, according to DK SportsBook. Why, you ask? Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing ahead of the 2019 season, Truex has two wins in four starts and has led an astonishing 725 of 2,000 laps run at the track (36.25%) -- 464 of which came in the fall 2019 race. Last fall, Truex was in position to contend for the win late, when the No. 19 had to pit for a loose wheel, placing 22nd, one lap down.
Another point of emphasis, Truex was dominant in the final stage at Phoenix Raceway in March, which has the same aerodynamic package that will be used at Martinsville. You'll be making a mistake if the No. 19 Toyota isn't part of your fantasy team.
Chase Elliott
(DraftKings $11,400 | FanDuel $13,500 | DK SportsBook +600)
When Truex went down last fall at Martinsville, it opened up an opportunity for Chase Elliott, which catapulted the No. 9 team into the championship race the following week, evidentially winning the championship. And the Georgia native has been strong at the paperclip.
Yes, Elliott has just the one victory last fall, but won in dominant fashion: leading 236 laps. In the 2017 fall race, he led 123 circuits. In 11 starts at the venue, Elliott has six top-10 finishes and an average result of 14.5.
Hands down, Hendrick Motorsports has been the best team in the Cup Series this season, including two race wins. It's a bit of a surprise that Elliott hasn't found the winner's circle yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if he found it this weekend. It's a tossup between Truex and Elliott as to who you should center your team around. Unless....
Brad Keselowski
(DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $13,000 | DK SportsBook +600)
You choose Brad Keselowski. Historically, Martinsville is among the 2012 champion's best tracks on the circuit with 11 top-five finishes in 22 starts, scoring a pair of victories. Plus, the 2012 Cup champion has 10 straight top-10 finishes at the paperclip, with nine of those being top-five efforts.
Over the past handful of seasons, Team Penske has been stout at Martinsville. Last year, the 750 horsepower tracks suited the team well, picking up four wins on such tracks, three coming from Keselowski. So there's no doubt the No. 2 car will be in contention for the win, and will likely lead laps.
To be fair, you can't really go wrong having either Keselowski or his Team Penske teammate Joey Logano on your team this weekend, but I'd give the nod to the No. 2 team. Plus he starts 10th, which could reward you some additional points.
Denny Hamlin
(DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel $12,500 | DK SportsBook +700)
Let's not forget about Denny Hamlin, though. For years, entering Martinsville everyone knew it would be a battle between Hamlin, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson for the win. There wasn't any doubt about it. And still, the No. 11 car is typically one that contends for wins more times than not at one of his home racetracks.
However, it's a tad concerning to look at Hamlin's numbers from 2020 at the track. In the spring race, the No. 11 team missed the setup, dropped outside the top 30, was lapped early and salvaged a 24th-place finish. In the fall, the No. 11 was strong, winning the opening stage while leading 42 laps. But he couldn't overcome a late pit road speeding penalty and finished 11th.
In 30 starts at Martinsville, Hamlin has won five times, and none of those have come in the last six years. The No. 11 car is due for a victory at the track, plus he's off to the best start to a season of his Cup career with six op-five finishes in seven races. The only thing missing is a win.
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Alex Bowman
(DraftKings $9,200 | FanDuel $9,500 | DK SportsBook +2500)
Because we went very top heavy with some of the previous picks, it's time to find drivers that are either undervalued or drivers that perform well at Martinsville. In a perfect scenario, you get both!
Historically, Martinsville hasn't been one of Alex Bowman's best venues on the schedule, but he is coming off a pair of sixth-place finishes in 2020. That gives me confidence that the No. 48 car will have a solid run on Saturday, improving on his 20th-place starting position.
Expectations were high for Bowman this season, taking over the No. 48 Chevrolet. Thus far, he's had a mediocre campaign with one top-five finish and three finish of 22nd or worse. At some point the year has to turn around for Bowman, and expect it to start this weekend.
Aric Almirola
(DraftKings $8,100 | FanDuel $7,700 | DK SportsBook +8000)
Speaking of drivers that need to have their year turned around, Aric Almirola is at the top of that list. Sitting 28th in points, Almirola has one top-15 finish through seven races, 84 markers behind the cutline. In all likelihood, it's going to take a victory for the No. 10 team to make the postseason.
But there's reason for optimism at Martinsville. On paper, five top 10s in 24 races is about average for the Florida native, but three of those came with underfunded Richard Petty Motorsports. Most recently, he placed seventh in the fall, and had a shot at a top-five finish in the 2019 fall race before contact with Kyle Busch ended his day.
Almirola will lineup 23rd for Saturday's race, meaning there's a lot of room to improve. I think there's a good chance the No. 10 team gets its first top-10 finish of the season at Martinsville.
Bubba Wallace
(DraftKings $7,300 | FanDuel $7,000 | DK SportsBook +8000)
And on that note, we might as well discuss Bubba Wallace. Over the course of his NASCAR career, Wallace has had stellar runs at Martinsville, winning twice in the Camping World Truck Series at the track and overachieved in subpar Richard Petty Motorsports equipment.
In six Cup starts at the track, Wallace has a trio of top-20 finishes, including an 11th in this race last season. Despite finishing 13th in the fall 2019 race, there was a late stretch where Wallace was mowing through the field, racing inside the top 10.
Entering 2021, Wallace knew there would be growing pains with 23XI Racing. And though the stat sheet doesn't show it, the No. 23 Toyota has had many good runs, just haven't been able to put full races together. Wallace gets the team its first top 10 this weekend.
Ryan Preece
(DraftKings $5,600| FanDuel $4,000 | DK SportsBook +20000)
Speaking of undervalued, Ryan Preece is a steal on DraftKings and FanDuel for his price. If you're in need of a solid driver to fill out the bottom of your lineup, look no further.
Growing up short track racing, Preece excels at racetracks like Martinsville. In five starts at the paperclip, he's earned a trio of top-20 finishes. Nope, he's never been a factor for a top-10 finish, but the team has steadily improved from the past two years, currently sitting 18th in points.
Look for Preece to have a solid top-15 run, which is a net positive from his 22nd-place starting position.
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