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Nick Federline's college basketball betting picks for the 2021 NCAA Tournament's National Championship He analyzes CBB Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
As was predicted in November, the best two teams in the country - Gonzaga and Baylor - will meet for the National Championship on Monday night. The teams were originally slated to play on December 5, but fans were robbed of the opportunity to see that game due to COVID-19 protocols. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament coverage and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and betting picks.
Saturday's expert betting picks provided a nice 2-0 boost to the year. In the opening game, Baylor manhandled Houston from the opening tip en route to a convincing 19-point victory. In the second national semifinal, UCLA and Gonzaga gave America arguably the best single game of the tournament. While Gonzaga was able to eke out the win on freshman phenom Jalen Suggs' buzzer-beating three-pointer, UCLA was able to play well above their weight as 14-point underdogs giving us our second betting win of the day and giving Bruins fans plenty to be excited about for the future of this young squad. The season record to date is 40-25.
Here are some of the top college basketball betting picks for the National Championship (Monday, April 5, 2021). Let me know your thoughts, and follow along with the action on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time. Season record to date: 40-25.
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The National Championship
The National Championship tips off on Monday, April 5, 2021, at 9:20pm ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN, and will be nationally televised by CBS. Jim Nantz, Grant Hill and Bill Raftery will be on the call. The NCAA approved an 11-referee list to work the Final Four and National Championship game, and the game's referees will be selected from that pre-approved list and announced one hour before tip-off.
Vegas set the opening line in favor of Gonzaga as 5-point favorites. The total is set at 160. Money line bettors can lay some juice to pick Gonzaga (-245) or grab Baylor at plus-money (+188). The game will be both teams' second all-time NCAA Championship appearance - Gonzaga in 2017 and Baylor in 1948 - and both are seeking their first title.
How They Got Here
The top-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs have a spotless 31-0 record that includes just two games that were decided by less than 10 points - a December 2 win over West Virginia, and Saturday's 3-point overtime win over UCLA in the Final Four. In non-conference play, the Zags challenged themselves with contests against Iowa, Kansas, West Virginia, and Virginia, all of whom were awarded top-4 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. After breezing through West Coast Conference play, and a conference tournament championship over BYU, the Bulldogs took down #16 Norfolk State, #8 Oklahoma, #5 Creighton, #6 Southern California, and #11 UCLA to earn their place in the National Championship game. Gonzaga is 4-1 against-the-spread in this tournament.
The Baylor Bears sport a strong 27-2 record, with their only regular season loss coming at the hands of Kansas in February, as well as a Big 12 Conference Tournament loss to Oklahoma State. During non-conference play, Baylor opted to play fellow NCAA Tournament #1 seed Illinois (and won), and a relatively easy remainder of the non-conference schedule. In the Big 12, the Bears had to maneuver around a minefield of quality teams, with six other NCAA Tournament teams in the league. In the NCAA Tournament, the Bears have taken down #16 Hartford, #8 Wisconsin, #5 Villanova, #3 Arkansas, and #2 Houston to get to this point. Baylor is 4-1 against-the-spread in this tournament.
The Coaches
Gonzaga is coached by long-time program leader Mark Few. The 58-year old Coach Few was born and raised in the Pacific Northwest, and has led the Bulldogs for 22 seasons. Few played basketball and baseball at Division III Linfield College before transferring to the University of Oregon to pursue academics. Few has two Final Four appearances, two NABC Coach of the Year awards, and twenty West Coast Conference regular season titles (every season since 2001, aside from the 2011-2012 season).
Coach Scott Drew is the understudy of this game at 50 years of age. As the son of former Valparaiso Coach Homer Drew, and the brother of former Valparaiso and NBA guard Bryce Drew, basketball bloodlines run deep in the Drew family. Drew is in the midst of his 18th year in Waco, Texas, and has brought the program well out of the depths of recruiting violations and misappropriated funds that Drew inherited from his predecessor at Baylor. This year is Coach Drew's first Final Four appearance, and he has two Big 12 Coach of the Year awards, and one Big 12 regular season title on his resume.
On The Court
| Projected Starting Fives | ||
| Gonzaga | Baylor | |
| PG | Andrew Nembhard | Jared Butler |
| SG | Jalen Suggs | Davion Mitchell |
| SF | Joel Ayayi | MaCio Teague |
| PF | Corey Kispert | Mark Vital |
| C | Drew Timme | Flo Thamba |
| Key Reserve | F Anton Watson | G Adam Flagler |
Entering the tournament, the consensus thought was that a team with superior size would have the best chance of taking down Gonzaga. The Bulldogs quickly dispelled that theory in their beatdown of USC, but did show some holes in their narrow Final Four win over UCLA. As we wrote in our Final Four betting expert picks, UCLA was the second-hottest team in the tournament behind Gonzaga, the starting five played a team-oriented style of basketball, and their center, Cody Riley, was able to stay largely out of foul trouble. Even though UCLA didn't feature superior size or rebounding to the Zags, they gave them their biggest scare of the season in an overtime loss.
If Gonzaga hopes to bring the NCAA Championship back to Spokane, Washington, for the first time ever, they'd better start by cleaning up the defensive side of the game. Despite knowing that UCLA wanted to play ISO-ball with Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez, Gonzaga did little to stop those two from getting the ball in isolation situations, and they paid the price dearly, almost to the tune of an upset. Center Drew Timme was fantastic, as he has been all tournament, with 25 points, and he'll be critical against a Baylor frontline that packs very little offensive punch but does feature some better rim protection than Timme's faced thus far. Future NBA top-5 draft pick Jalen Suggs and fellow guard Joel Ayayi have both been dynamic in this tournament but will have their hands full with the Bears' effective triumvirate of guards Teague, Butler and Mitchell. Gonzaga has never lost to Baylor, and will hope to improve on their current 5-0 all-time head-to-head record.
The Bears showed once again why their depth is not only enviable but could become Gonzaga's kryptonite. To date, the Zags have relied on a short bench that's dipped into forward Anton Watson and occasionally former Southern Illinois guard Aaron Cook - that's it. When Coach Drew opens up his bench, he'll trust them just as much as his starters with Adam Flagler, Matthew Mayer and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua all receiving 20 minutes or more of playing time regularly. Baylor's starting backcourt trio of Macio Teague, Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell will be the key, as they have been all season. Against an extremely physical Houston team in the national semifinal, Baylor held their own on the boards, with a +3 advantage, while holding the Cougars to a dismal 38% shooting from the field. At the end of the day, basketball fans will get to see the best two teams duke it out in a winner-takes-all setting. Expect barrages of three-pointers, and plenty of excitement in this highly anticipated National Championship contest.
Pick: Gonzaga -4.5 / Over 159.5
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