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Nick Federline's college basketball betting picks for the 2021 NCAA Tournament's Final 4. He analyzes CBB Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
The NCAA Tournament field has been reduced to our Final 4 contenders. As we near the end of the Tournament, we can appreciate the hard work and dedication that was put in by countless individuals to ensure that this Tournament happened without any hitches. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament coverage and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and betting picks.
During the Elite 8, our expert betting picks produced a 3-1 record. On the losing side, Oregon State hit a "meaningless" three-pointer with less than 3 seconds left to backdoor cover our way to our only loss from the Elite 8. On the winning side, however, Baylor and Arkansas easily combined to crush their over, Gonzaga dominated from start-to-finish to embarrass USC, and UCLA continued their magical March run by not only covering the 7.5-point spread, but also winning straight up over Michigan. The season record to date is 38-25.
Here are some of the top college basketball betting picks for the Final 4 (Saturday, April 3, 2021). Let me know your thoughts, and follow along with the action on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time. Season record to date: 38-25.
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#11 UCLA (22-9) vs. #1 Gonzaga (30-0) - 7:15 PM, Monday
| Projected Starting Fives | ||
| UCLA | Gonzaga | |
| PG | Tyger Campbell | Andrew Nembhard |
| SG | Jules Bernard | Jalen Suggs |
| SF | Johnny Juzang | Joel Ayayi |
| PF | Jaime Jaquez | Corey Kispert |
| C | Cody Riley | Drew Timme |
| Key Reserve | G David Singleton | F Anton Watson |
Spread: Gonzaga -14
O/U: 145
After victories over #11 Michigan State, #6 BYU, #14 Abilene Christian, #2 Alabama and #1 Michigan (including three of those five wins being by double digits), is it finally time to give Coach Mick Cronin some credit? The Bruins' starting five are playing a cohesive brand of basketball that took down the top two favorites in their region. Cronin has taken his normally short bench and made things even more extreme, relying on his trio of 6-foot-6 interchangeable wing players - Juzang, Jaquez and Bernard - to rarely leave the floor during tournament play. If it weren't for Cody Riley's foul trouble against Michigan, it is likely that the five starters would have played well over 90% of the team's total minutes. In the Bruins' 51-49 slugfest of a win over Michigan in the Elite 8, UCLA forced 14 turnovers (+6 turnover margin), and held the Wolverines to 39% shooting from the floor. The matchup with Gonzaga is an interesting one, because both teams keep short benches, both teams stylistically play four guards around one big man, and both teams' head coaches are under 6-feet tall. The ultimate key for UCLA to stay competitive in this game will be center Cody Riley, who averages 9.8 points per game, while chipping in 5.2 boards as well. Riley, who was a highly touted recruit in 2017 out of Sierra Canyon High School, is the only player on the Bruins' team who can hope to guard Gonzaga's Drew Timme effectively. Timme's recent 3-game stretch with 30, 22 and 23 points, respectively, is just the latest for the Richardson, Texas, native's dominant season.
Entering the game against USC, prognosticators who gave the Trojans a fighting chance pointed to their strong interior play and size that Gonzaga couldn't match. To counter that size, Gonzaga shot 50% from the field and actually out-rebounded USC by 11. The 85-66 beatdown was just the latest chapter in a story book season for the school from Spokane, Washington. Through four games, Gonzaga has covered the spread all four times, scored over 80 points in each game, and has given no indications of slowing down. The Zags have now scored over 80 points in 27 of 30 games (all wins). Featuring three Wooden Award (presented to the most outstanding player in the Country) finalists - Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert and Drew Timme - the Zags have star-power that is unrivaled this season. Since November, an inevitable Gonzaga vs. Baylor matchup has seemed likely, and if Vegas is right that's what we'll end up seeing on Monday. However, basketball is a game of runs and Gonzaga is pitting up against arguably the second hottest team in the country right now. While I fully expect Gonzaga to win, seeing UCLA put a scare into Gonzaga and become only the second team this year to lose by single digits would not surprise me.
Pick: UCLA +14
#2 Houston vs. #1 Baylor - 9:55 PM, Monday
| Projected Starting Fives | ||
| Houston | Baylor | |
| PG | Marcus Sasser | Jared Butler |
| SG | Dejon Jarreau | Davion Mitchell |
| SF | Quentin Grimes | MaCio Teague |
| PF | Justin Gorham | Mark Vital |
| C | Reggie Chaney | Flo Thamba |
| Key Reserve | G Tramon Mark | G Adam Flagler |
Spread: Baylor -5
O/U: 135
Houston, under the leadership of Coach Kelvin Sampson is in the midst of a successful run that has been given the easiest path to the Final Four, including victories over double digit seeds in every game. The combined seeds of their opponents - #15 seed Cleveland State, #10 Rutgers, #11 Syracuse and #12 Oregon State puts Houston in a tie for the highest combined seed numbers on a team's path to the Final Four in history. Not to diminish Houston's accomplishments, however, as Sampson's Cougars sport a sterling 28-3 record, and the defense has been stellar in the Tournament thus far. Quentin Grimes, who started his career at Kansas, is the leading scorer at over 18 ppg. Houston has only allowed two opponents all season to convert at least 10 three-pointers all season, which will pit strength vs. strength in the contest with Baylor.
Baylor's backcourt of Macio Teague, Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell will be crucial if the Bears hope to hoist the trophy on Monday night. The Bears sport a 41% three-point field goal percentage, ranking the best in college basketball. The biggest "weakness" for the Bears might be their rebounding, where they have not had significant advantages throughout much of the year. Still, with a 24-2 record, Coach Scott Drew's 18th season in Waco has turned out to be his finest in his first Final Four appearance. The Bears are about as complete of a team as you'll see this year, and definitely have the talent to be the last one standing this year. Expect at the end of the day that we'll be blessed with the Baylor vs. Gonzaga National Championship that we all have hoped for and deserve.
Pick: Baylor -5
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