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After the first race of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs last weekend at Darlington Raceway, the postseason picture is a little clearer, at least we thought. But for the first time since the elimination-style format was introduced in 2014, there are two short tracks in the opening round.
This weekend, the stars of the Cup Series will tackle the tricky, three-quarter-mile Richmond Raceway for the first time this season. Typically, the Virginia racetrack hosts two events, but the first was replaced earlier in the year with the ongoing pandemic.
One thing's for certain at Richmond: Toyota typically dominates. Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch have swept the past two seasons at the track, plus Denny Hamlin has some home-field advantage, given he's from Chesterfield, less than 20 miles south from the track. Flashback to last fall, Joe Gibbs Racing swept the first four spots until Erik Jones' No. 20 car failed post-race inspection. You guessed it, this lineup will be Toyota-heavy.
My DFS Lineup - Federated Auto Parts 400
Denny Hamlin ($11,600)
Career at Richmond: 27 starts, 3 wins, 1,659 laps led
Average finish at Richmond: 9.1
Not only does Hamlin have 47 playoff points, but the opening round of the playoffs feature some of his best tracks on the circuit, with last weekend at Darlington and Saturday at Richmond. The No. 11 Toyota is typically stout at his home track.
In the last nine races at Richmond, Hamlin has eight finishes of sixth or better, including a victory in 2016. Between 2008 and 2012, he led at least half the race on four separate occasions, including a 381 beatdown, only to have a flat tire late and finish 24th.
Sure, a ton has changed in NASCAR since then, but one thing remain's certain: Hamlin is good, arguably in his best season to date. With a seventh-place starting position, the No. 11 car is likely going to soar up the leaderboard, lead some laps and contend for a fourth Richmond triumph.
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900)
Career at Richmond: 28 starts, 2 wins, 1,018 laps led
Average finish at Richmond: 17.9
If Hamlin's lost anything at Richmond over the past four years, Truex has been the one to find it, leading at least 109 laps in six of the past seven races (970 of his 1,018 laps led at Richmond have come in the past seven races).
Until his 13th full-time season in Cup, Truex failed to win a short track race. But cracking victory lane last Spring at Richmond, he's won four of the past six races on short tracks, almost always running at the front.
With a late-race incident at Darlington, Truex rolls off 14th on Saturday. There's a good chance the No. 19 will rocket through the field and lead the most laps, as he's done so more times than not in recent Richmond events. Spoiler: he's my pick to win.
Christopher Bell ($7,200)
Career at Richmond: 0 starts
Average finish at Richmond: N/A
At the Cup level, there is no past knowledge to base this pick off. But if you watched any of the four NASCAR Xfinity Series races at Richmond between 2018 and 2019, you know the Oklahoma native is as solid as they come at the short track.
Can that success translate instantly to Cup? Probably not. But he's won 60% of the races he's ever started in at Richmond, leading 457 laps in five races.
Look, Bell is in a lame duck scenario, for sure. Last month, Leavine Family Racing announced it would cease operations after the 2020 season, selling its charter to Spire Motorsports. But the driver has still shown raw speed many of times since that announcement. Expect Bell to improve on his 26th-place starting position.
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Bubba Wallace ($7,100)
Career at Richmond: 4 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Richmond: 22.8
Wallace's average finish at Richmond is a little deceiving, but the No. 43 Chevrolet did earn a 12th-place result the last time NASCAR visited the River City. But if we're talking about lame duck scenarios, Wallace is in a similar situation as Bell, though the driver doesn't have a contract signed for 2021... yet.
On Thursday (Sept. 10), Wallace and Richard Petty Motorsports announced the driver won't return to the famed No. 43 car next season. With other options on the table, Wallace will surely bring funding he's secured over the summer months to a team with better equipment, giving him a more likely chance of competing for checkered flags.
So, yes, Wallace is playing with house money, nothing to lose at this point. He's made half of his decision, but don't expect him to just layover, that's not what racers do. Plus, his 30th-place starting position is quite attractive to DFS players.
Matt Kenseth ($6,700)
Career at Richmond: 37 starts, 2 wins, 1,013 laps led
Average finish at Richmond: 17.0
Over the course of his 22-year NASCAR career, Kenseth has been hit or miss at Richmond. There's one race where he led 352 laps en route to the victory for Joe Gibbs Racing. In another race, he led 89 laps from the pole, only to crash into the back of an ambulance on pit road in 2017. Quite frankly, he's seen it all at this track.
Of course, Kenseth's return to the seat hasn't gone as planned this season, noting earlier this week he likely won't be returning to Chip Ganassi Racing in 2021. I can't say that's something nobody expected, right? It's been a downright struggle this season, with an average finish of 20.3.
Regardless, Kenseth lines up 19th on Saturday and is worth the price. The Wisconsin native is a streaky driver, so maybe a good run at Richmond sets him up well for the final month and a half of the season. Maybe?
Corey LaJoie ($5,800)
Career at Richmond: 5 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Richmond: 29.6
As has been the case many times this season, LaJoie is underpriced, especially when the No. 32 Ford starts from 34th position, meaning there's almost only one way to go: up.
LaJoie is in the midst of his best season at the Cup level, with an average finish of 24.7 -- the best of his career and Go Fas Racing. His numbers at Richmond aren't pretty, but the North Carolina drive made his name on short tracks at the lower level. And at the Cup level, he has consecutive top-20 finishes at Martinsville Speedway.
Now, Richmond drives nothing like Martinsville, but LaJoie is a low-risk selection. And if you're electing to put a couple of JGR studs on your lineup, this is a good substitute for a lower-priced driver. Otherwise, you're dealing with some severely underfunded teams. If not LaJoie, though, Michael McDowell is a good pick at $5,400. Your choice.
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