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Three years ago, Texas Motor Speedway introduced a new configuration to the racetrack, expanding the width of Turns 1 and 2 while reducing the banking. Some driver say that change ruined TMS, hindering drivers from searching for grip.
In the six races ran under the track surface, sure, there's been some duds. Kevin Harvick has been best in class since the repave, while others have yet to figure it out.
But even while it's hard to pass and made for much of a one-groove track, there are still DraftKings points on the line. Given Sunday's race is 334 laps (500 miles), there are 83.5 points up for grab for laps led, while 167 will be given out for quick laps. Track position will be king, but even so, let's see who you should have in your lineup.
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My DFS Lineup - O'Reilly Auto Parts 500
Kevin Harvick ($11,300)
Career at Texas: 34 starts, 3 wins, 614 laps led
Average finish at Texas: 10.4
Remember how I said Harvick has been best in class since the new configuration debuted in 2017? Yeah, the No. 4 team has been lights out.
In six starts since the repave, Harvick has won three times, however, all have come in the playoff race in the Lone Star State. Cause for concern? Absolutely not. The No. 4 team has 11 consecutive top-10 finishes at the track, dating back to the fall of 2014.
Straight up, Harvick will be a factor on Sunday, and he's proven to be the fastest car in the field this season. In the overall points standings, he has an 88-point advantage on second place. Center your lineup around this guy, as 498 of his 614 career laps led at TMS have come in his last six starts at the track.
Christopher Bell ($9,100)
Career at Texas: 0 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Texas: N/A
Via the weekly random draw for starting positions, Bell's No. 95 will roll-off 33rd on Sunday, his eighth start of 32nd or worse in 10 draws this season. That, my friends, is bad luck.
With that, though, means Bell has had the opportunity to score a ton of DFS points, which is what the No. 95 team has done. Since the resumption of the NASCAR season two months ago, Bell has earned eight top-20 finishes in 13 races, five of which have been top 10s.
The Leavine Family Racing team has shown speed, probably more so than ever before. Bell's record at TMS isn't too shabby either in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, scoring three podium finishes in the last four races. You need the Oklahoma native on your team.
Erik Jones ($8,600)
Career at Texas: 7 starts, 0 wins, 103 laps led
Average finish at Texas: 9.4
OK, I don't know about you, but I'm really waiting patiently for the No. 20 team to get consistent this season. After all, Jones is a free agent following this season, needing to impress Joe Gibbs Racing among other teams for 2021.
But that's the future. Since joining RotoBaller, I've chosen Jones to be on my team more times than not. Of late, he's gone to some of his best tracks on the circuit, only to find inconstancy (I see you, Pocono -- finishes of third and 39th in two races). I feel like I'm repeating myself when it comes to Jones, but since moving to Cup full-time, TMS has been one of his best tracks.
Entering Sunday's 500-miler, Jones has five consecutive top-10 finishes at the track. Driving the No. 20 for JGR means he has top-notch equipment and should perform well. Starting 23rd gives you some wiggle room and the potential to gain quite a few points in the final rundown.
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Aric Almirola ($8,100)
Career at Texas: 19 starts, 0 wins, 65 laps led
Average finish at Texas: 18.1
Uh, have you watched the last six races? Aside from Harvick and Denny Hamlin, Almirola has been the fastest guy in NASCAR. Surprising.
Since his fifth-place finish at Homestead-Miami Speedway last month, Almirola has five top-five finishes and six straight top 10s, a career long. Not even halfway through the season, Almirola has already set a new career-high for laps led in a single season (218).
Almirola has also been hot at Texas, posting three consecutive top-10 finishes, including a runner-up to his Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Harvick last fall. In the process, the No. 10 car led 62 laps, which prior to last Sunday's race at Kentucky Speedway was the most he's led in a single race since mid-2018. I'm bought in -- for now -- on Almirola, and he's undervalued this week, starting from the pole.
Michael McDowell ($6,600)
Career at Texas: 20 starts, 0 wins, 6 laps led
Average finish at Texas: 31.4
OK, so after Wednesday night's mishap in the All-Star Open, where McDowell intentionally hooked Bubba Wallace into the wall, he might be the most hated driver in NASCAR. That doesn't take away from his stellar season with Front Row Motorsports.
There's no doubt, McDowell is having a career year. Sitting 24th in points, the No. 34 car has upped its average finish by nearly five positions from the last two seasons.
Since joining FRM in 2018, McDowell's had a pair of top-15 finishes in four races at TMS. His 34th-place starting position is attractive because he's shown top 15-20 speed over the past month, earning two top-10 finishes at Pocono Raceway and Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Ryan Newman ($6,300)
Career at Texas: 33 starts, 1 win, 100 laps led
Average finish at Texas: 18.6
I'll be honest, Newman's performance since NASCAR's return at Darlington has been a little disappointing, having yet to score a top-10 finish. But, his price value this weekend is a steal.
No, Texas isn't one of Newman's best tracks on the circuit, but he did have a pair of top 15s in the No. 6 car last year, his first season with Roush Fenway Racing. 15th is exactly where he starts on Sunday.
Because he starts 15th, it might be a cause for concern. But I'll leave you with this; Newman has proven over the years to get the most out of his racecars, he's nicknamed "Rocketman" for a reason. It's only a matter of time before he re-enters the top 10.
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