RADIO
The three-down back is starting to disappear in the NFL, and fantasy owners who don’t have a top first-round pick are missing out on the elite options. The shift to more committees in the NFL has also altered the way fantasy football owners draft.
There are some team backfields you may want to avoid for various reasons. Backfields that are too crowded, or even backfields that split touches evenly, can destroy fantasy value. For 2018, there are several teams with running backs I don’t want to own, and you shouldn’t either. I discuss them below. I am not saying you will lose your leagues if you invest in these running backs, but you may have some tough decisions on a weekly basis.
With that being said, if you choose to go ZeroRB with your draft strategy, you may need to invest in some of these same running backs. The ZeroRB approach has become more popular because owners are finding great value late in drafts for running backs, and in general ZeroRB can alter which players to target in drafts. But for the sake of this article, I will focus on non-ZeroRB strategies.
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Running Back Committees to Avoid in 2018
Detroit Lions - LeGarrette Blount, Kerryon Johnson, Theo Riddick, Ameer Abdullah
Let’s start with my home state team. The Lions backfield could be in its best shape in quite some time, but I would like to try my best to avoid it in 2018. I thought the Legarrette Blount signing was excellent for the Lions and was exactly what they needed to go with Theo Riddick. When they decided to move up in the draft and take Kerryon Johnson in the second round, the backfield became a little too crowded for me.
There is talk that the Lions could move on from Ameer Abdullah before the season starts, which would help to open some playing time, but I think the chances are better that the new Lions coaching staff waits to see what they have with him and he sticks for one more season. That could be four running backs that the Lions use to rotate and give touches to. That sounds like a committee we are used to seeing from the New England Patriots, the former team of new Lions head coach Matt Patricia.
The last time the Lions ranked in the top half of rushing attempts per game in a season was 2013. Even if you dedicate passing-down work to Riddick and at least 150 to 175 attempts for Blount, that may only leave 150 to 175 attempts for Johnson. The only viable running back could be Johnson, but he would need to play the Dion Lewis type role for the Lions in this season. That would require the Lions getting closer to the 448 rushing attempts the Patriots had last season and Blount seeing no more than the 104 attempts Mike Gillislee saw last year. The perfect storm could make Johnson a mid-range RB2. I don’t like investing in the perfect storm.
Oakland Raiders - Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin, Deandre Washington, Jalen Richard
The Raiders spent all off-season adding as many used-up veteran players as possible and one of those players is running back Doug Martin. It’s safe to say that a majority of the fantasy community has given up on Martin, but the Raiders signed him for a purpose. Martin isn’t in town to be a lead back or even split carries 50/50 with Marshawn Lynch, but he will get just enough work to leave Lynch owners frustrated.
The problem for me lies within the defense. The defense was bad last year, especially at shutting down the pass. They couldn’t create turnovers and in a division that will feature Philip Rivers, Patrick Mahomes and Case Keenum, who all lead pretty good offenses, scores could be run up quickly. If the defense can’t stop anyone this season, then the Raiders won’t have many more carries available than what they had last season.
Last season, Lynch finished as the RB24 in PPR leagues with 207 attempts. DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard, who were backups to Lynch, barley combined for half the attempts Lynch had. That won’t happen again with Martin on the roster. If the Raiders give Martin at least 100 carries this season, they will also need to factor in passing down work to a third back because Martin or Lynch won’t be able to help there. Lynch is the lead back, but he may not be a RB2 unless he remains extremely efficient and holds off Martin for as many carries as possible.
Miami Dolphins- Frank Gore, Kenyan Drake, Kalen Ballage
A big question many fantasy owners have been asking this off-season: “Is Kenyan Drake for real?” From Weeks 12 through 16 last season, Drake was the RB8 in PPR leagues, averaging 16.6 PPG. So, if Drake played so well down the stretch, why did the Dolphins need to sign Frank Gore and draft Kalen Ballage in the fourth round?
Let’s face it, if Gore shows up on your team, you are losing snaps to him. Gore doesn’t sign with other teams to sit around and not contribute. Gore was able to finish as the RB19 last season with a horrible offensive line and no Andrew Luck in Indianapolis.
Even with Drake's strong end to the season, you could see a 50/50 split with carries between Gore and Drake, but the dark horse is Kalen Ballage. He tested very well at the combine but may not become an every-down back. He could turn into a pass-catching back that works on third downs while Drake and Gore split the rest of the work.
Tennessee Titans - Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis
No truthers were more disappointed this off-season than Derrick Henry truthers. Hopefully you listened to my warnings of sell high after DeMarco Murray was released because Henry’s value is far less now and so will his fantasy contributions. So why would I be avoiding a backfield that could potentially house one or two RB2 candidates? Inconsistency.
Even though I’m not a fan of Henry, he could see some potential upside for touchdowns and if Dion Lewis gets hurt, which has happened frequently in the past, he would take over the backfield. Lewis on the other hand, will have standalone value in PPR leagues with his ability to contribute in all facets of the game.
The reason I’m fading the Titans backfield in 2018 is inconsistency. While both could have good seasons, trying to figure out which one to play on a weekly basis could be a pain. Henry and Lewis will be used based on game flow and that can be hard to predict at times. This isn’t a tandem of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, it’s just going to be the same Titans backfield we saw last season but with some more efficiency. Last season Murray finished as the RB20 while Henry finished as the RB37. Lewis will finish higher in PPR and Henry will finish higher than last season, but low-end RB2 value will be the only bet I’m willing to place.
New England Patriots - Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel, James White, Jeremy Hill, Mike Gillislee
We started the article with Lions who could be mimicking the Patriots. So, let's end with talking about the actual Patriots backfield. Or should we say, the crowded Patriots backfield. The Patriots currently have five running backs on the roster that could play any given week. The good news is one of them could be cut before the season gets here, likely Hill or Gillislee, but that still leaves four more backs to carry the rock.
My issue with the Pats is the potential for inconsistent play each week. Most fantasy owners feel Sony Michel will automatically step into the Dion Lewis role from last season, but if Rex Burkhead is healthy all season, the combination of his red zone presence and James White work in the passing game will cut down on the overall impact Michel could have. Burkhead only had 64 carries last season but averaged 4.1 yards per carry and scored five touchdowns. He’s going to see over 100 carries in 2018, like what Gillislee saw last year, and get the money carries inside the red zone. Don’t pay up for Michel in the middle rounds, but if Burkhead falls far enough, you could take a shot. Just don’t rely on anyone as a regular starter.
