Jimmy Graham to the Packers - Fantasy Spin

March 16, 2018

Green Bay Packers TE Jimmy Graham is on a new team for the 2018 NFL season. Justin Carter evaluates his fantasy football value in redraft leagues.

I have a lot of feelings about former Seattle Seahawks tight end Jimmy Graham moving to the Green Bay Packers and the cumulative effect of all these feelings is essentially just me sitting in a chair at a coffee shop with my hands above my shoulders because Graham's fit with the Packers is so tough to judge.

During the Aaron Rodgers era at Lambeau, "Green Bay Packers" and "elite tight end" have been mutually exclusive terms. The Packers have seemed to always have a wide array of receivers that Rodgers fed the ball to, with the tight end position mostly remaining an afterthought. Then again, they've never had a talent like Graham either.

Let's look at what the former hoopster brings to the team and how he fits in the historical data we have about Green Bay's tight end usage.

Jimmy Graham: The Strengths

Let's start with Graham's fantasy stats. Graham has finished as a top-five fantasy tight end in six of the past seven seasons. If we ignore 2015, when Graham played in just 11 games and finished outside the top 10 at his position, we have a pretty clear picture of Graham as one of the league's best tight ends. Even when he moved to Seattle and he seemed like less of a dominant force, he still put up top-five TE seasons. The numbers were worse than in New Orleans, but in context with the rest of the league his play didn't necessarily fall off. Graham was a worse player in Seattle for real-life reasons, but the struggles of the tight end position as a whole -- a position that has become, more and more, Gronk, Kelce, and the field -- didn't hurt Graham from a value perspective.

Graham's big value comes down in the red zone. When he was with the Saints, he was targeted inside the 10-yard line at least 10 times for four straight years. His first two years in Seattle, that figure fell to just five total targets in that part of the field. The fact that Graham had two catches for eight yards over that time frame shows that Seattle wasn't able to take advantage of what Graham does best; the fact that he scored touchdowns on both of those catches should further frustrate Seahawks fans, who were able to see a glimpse of Graham at his best.

In 2017, though, Graham was targeted 16 times inside the 10 yard line. He turned that into eight catches for 22 yards and eight touchdowns. He had 10 total touchdowns in the red zone on just 15 catches. Despite a major downturn in Graham's total yards last season, his fantasy effectiveness didn't wane because the Seahawks figured out how to take advantage of defensive mismatches down near the red zone.

Now, something possibly negative to note here: those 16  targets inside the 10 were the most of Graham's career. Overall, he had the fewest yards since his rookie season, the fewest yards per reception of his career, and the lowest catch percentage. He averaged just 32.5 yards per game. Maybe this leads to the next point...

Jimmy Graham: The Weaknesses

Before we talk about Graham's fit in Green Bay, let me just copy and paste the sentence I wrote above for emphasis: He had the fewest yards since his rookie season, the fewest yards per reception of his career, and the lowest catch percentage. He averaged just 32.5 yards per game.

2017 Jimmy Graham wasn't the dynamic player that Saints-era Jimmy Graham was. Injuries played a role, as he was banged up and playing through injury for much of the season. But it's hard to look at Graham's raw numbers and not think about the big, bad d-word: decline. Graham was 31-years-old and playing one of the league's most physically demanding positions. While there are notable players who have played into their late 30s at the position, including Jason Witten and Antonio Gates, Graham's recent injury history suggests he might be nearing the end of his usefulness as anything other than a red zone threat. Now, that isn't terrible -- red zone threats can change the way a defense has to plan against a team -- but it also puts a limit on his upside, because he could becomes too dependent on touchdowns to sustain his value. Essentially, we have to weigh two competing factors and decide which to go with: were Graham's first two seasons in Seattle an aberration in terms of scoring productivity, or did they represent a new trend in Graham's career and his return to form in regards to red zone efficiency in 2017 was just a blip on his radar. It's a tough question to answer.

Graham's DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) ranked just 27th in the league. His usefulness on a play-by-play basis has dropped, which makes his ability to sustain his red zone productivity crucial to his fantasy value.

The Fit in Green Bay

How does Aaron Rodgers make use of his tight ends? Since I spent some time looking at how Green Bay's number one tight end (as judged by the tight end with the most targets on the season) has been used inside the 10 yard line during the Rodgers-era, since that part of the field represents where Graham will do the majority of his fantasy damage. Skipping 2017 and 2013 because of Rodgers's injuries, we get this:

2016: Jared Cook -- two targets, one catch, six yards, one touchdown

2015: Richard Rodgers --  nine targets, six catches, 25 yards, six touchdowns

2014: Andrew Quarless -- seven targets, two catches, eight yards, two touchdowns

2012: Jermichael Finley  -- three targets, one catch, one yard, one touchdown

2011: Jermichael Finley -- 10 targets, seven catches, 33 yards, six touchdowns

2010: Quarless and Finley were close enough in targets that I'm combining them here -- four targets, one catch, nine yards, one touchdown

2009: Jermichael Finley -- seven targets, four catches, 15 yards, two touchdowns

2008: Donald Lee -- four targets, four catches, 14 yards, three touchdowns

There are some productive seasons sprinkled through there, but only once did the Packers number one tight end see double-digit targets inside the 10, whereas Graham has achieved that feat five times in eight seasons. Now, the numbers for Green Bay aren't consistent enough to extrapolate some grand meaning, but they do suggest that Graham is likely to see a drop in is his target share in his most productive part of the field. That's worrisome for fantasy owners.

The Verdict

Fantasy Pros has Graham as their seventh-ranked tight end right now. His past success suggests that he could end the season as a top seven tight end, but with his fall off in yards last season and the Packers shaky history of targeting tight ends inside the 10 yard line...I don't know. The three tight ends behind him in the rankings -- Kyle Rudolph, Jack Doyle, and Delanie Walker -- all feel like options I'd rather have on my own fantasy teams at this point, but I'd rather have Graham than anyone below those guys. Someone like O.J. Howard is too raw. Jordan Reed is too injury prone. Graham has plenty of upside with Aaron Rodgers and with the departure of Jordy Nelson opening up some opportunities, but there are still a lot of mouths to feed in Green Bay. I have Graham's stock going down after this move.

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