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Dan Fornek analyzes the best fits for four NFL wide receivers who will be hitting free agency soon, including Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller V, Curtis Samuel, and Corey Davis.
The 2020 NFL season is officially coming to a close, which means it is time to start preparing for 2021 fantasy football drafts! Free agency will have a chance to change the landscape of the league for several teams and players and could have a massive fantasy impact for next season.
Throughout the next several articles, I will be taking a look at the top free agents in this class and figuring out ideal and likely fits for them in fantasy football. Because of the depth of the wide receiver position, this position group will be broken up into two parts. This is the second of these two articles. You can find the first wide receiver article here.
For today, I will be focusing on arguably the top three receivers getting ready to hit free agency and what their ideal or likely fits are from a fantasy perspective. Next week will be a bit bigger list of wide receivers getting ready to get paid and more focused on the optimal fantasy landing spot for each of them. With that being said, let's take a look at an in-depth breakdown of the top three free-agent receivers heading into the 2021 offseason. AirYards data from this article can be found on addmorefunds.com. Salary cap figures were provided by Spotrac.com.
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Kenny Golladay
Kenny Golladay will be a highly sought wide receiver in free agency despite a hip injury that cost him all but five games during the 2020 season. Whether it was a legitimate injury or a convenient reason to hold out without a new contract, Golladay will be in high demand and should be considered one of the top four free agents on the market. Golladay dominated for Detroit during his second and third seasons in the league, catching 135 of his 235 targets for 2,253 yards and 16 touchdowns. During those two years, he played in 31 of 32 games, proving that he generally has durability and 2020 is likely an aberration.
Despite his reputation as a jump ball receiver, Golladay played the role of the deep threat for Detroit in his two healthy seasons. In 2018 and 2019, Golladay averaged 1,586.5 air yards for Detroit, good for over 30% of the team’s air yards during that time. Over the last three seasons, Golladay’s 9.9 yards per target paced Detroit. He’s worthy of a contract paying him WR1 money even though he just turned 27.
Potential Free Agent Fits
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are in dire need of wide receiver help and Kenny Golladay could just be the cure for what ails them. Golladay may not command the immediate attention or the contract sizes of Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, but his impact in Baltimore would be just as important. Baltimore has only had two receivers command 100 targets in the past three seasons, Marquise Brown in 2020 and Michael Crabtree in 2018. In that time, their collective leading receiver has been a tight end (Mark Andrews). Golladay would fit in perfectly as the Ravens’ top receiving target and push Marquise Brown to a complementary deep threat role. Lamar Jackson would keep Golladay as a top-24 fantasy wide receiver in fantasy for the duration of his contract.
New England Patriots
The Patriots are even more desperate for receiver help than the Ravens and are still up in the air with their 2021 quarterback situation. New England’s top receiver in 2020 was Jakobi Meyers, an undrafted free agent from the 2019 draft class. New England needs a top-tier wide receiver to anchor their offense given the aging Julian Edelman and the underwhelming N’Keal Harry to this point. In the past three seasons, James White has factored in as a top-two receiver for New England thanks to a lack of receiving weapons. Golladay would provide a big-bodied target with a large catch radius that could help develop a young quarterback by being their featured weapon.
Detroit Lions
Detroit made the splash of the offseason to this point, trading Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff and draft picks. With a new quarterback in the fold, Detroit will also need to consider giving him weapons to be successful. As it stands, Quintez Cephus will be their most experienced returning receiver from 2020, which isn’t going to cut it. Detroit needs to consider bringing back their WR1 from the past few seasons to help acclimate their new quarterback. Goff may not be as good as Stafford, but even he is capable of funneling targets to a tall wide receiver and giving him weekly WR1 upside.
Will Fuller V
Will Fuller is the definition of a player in the modern NFL who has a prodigious amount of talent that can’t put together a full NFL season. Fuller hasn’t topped 11 games played since his rookie season in 2016. Fuller has had three total seasons with over 70 receptions but has topped 50 receptions and 700 receiving yards just once. In fairness, Fuller was poised to break 1,000 receiving yards (and probably double-digit touchdowns) in 2020 before a PED suspension cost him the final five games of this season and the first game of next year.
Fuller’s free-agency will be very interesting to follow. On one hand, he has shown that he can provide WR1 ability thanks to last season. On the other hand, he has never been able to put together a full healthy season throughout the entirety of his career. Plenty of teams could use his vertical stretching ability, but he may get a short-term deal because of his health questions.
Potential Free Agent Fits
Los Angeles Rams
With Matthew Stafford in the fold, the Rams are set to make a push to win the Super Bowl in the next couple of seasons. While their offense features two very good wide receivers in Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, they don’t necessarily have a deep threat option to attack opposing defenses vertically. If Fuller gets a smaller deal because of his injury history, he fits perfectly with the Rams. Los Angeles would have to free up cap space to make this work, but he would add a whole new dimension to this offense as an excellent secondary receiving option. Given his role as the deep threat, he would still possess immense fantasy upside even competing with Woods and Kupp.
Washington Football Team
Washington has an established WR1 in Terry McLaurin, but little else surrounding him at the receiver position. The Football Team’s second-leading receiver in 2020 was tight end Logan Thomas and their third-leading pass-catcher was J.D. McKissic, and that was enough to get Washington a first-place finish in the NFC East. Fuller would give Washington a deep threat receiver and would force teams to decide if they wanted to focus their coverage on Fuller or McLaurin weekly. Washington will likely need to address the quarterback position via free agency thanks to a later draft slot, but Fuller could have plenty of success in the NFC East.
New York Jets
The Jets had been a mess under the playcalling of Adam Gase. Jamison Crowder was New York’s leading receiver in 2020 despite playing in just 12 games. He was also the only wide receiver that surpassed 50 receptions, 600 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns. The Jets deep threat in 2020, Breshad Perriman, will be a free agent again and Will Fuller could fill that role and more. Fuller would give Sam Darnold (or whoever the Jets choose to draft) a legitimate WR1 talent and could help whichever young quarterback is in New York develop as a deep passer.
Curtis Samuel
After several seasons of showing massive potential with underwhelming results, Curtis Samuel finally was utilized as a versatile offensive weapon before heading into free agency. Samuel played in 15 games in 2020, catching 77 of his 97 targets for 851 yards and three touchdowns. He was also utilized as a rusher like in college, carrying the ball 41 times for 200 yards and two additional touchdowns. Samuel had always been underutilized as a deep threat. Carolina’s quarterbacks were unable to hit down the field, but in 2020, he was utilized more on short crossing routes and screens and flourished. He could have a very interesting market in the upcoming free-agent period thanks to becoming available after his most productive season at age-24. Samuel won’t likely get top-end wide receiver money, but he could very well command solid money given his versatility.
Potential Free Agent Fits
Jacksonville Jaguars
This first team is just a series of connecting the dots. Urban Meyer has taken over in Jacksonville and he coached Curtis Samuel in college. Jacksonville already has D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault Jr. in their receiving corps, but Keelan Cole Sr., Dede Westbrook, and Chris Conley are all free agents and Jacksonville could opt to replace his production via free agency instead of bringing him back. Samuel would be able to play multiple roles for the Jaguars and would get a chance to play with (presumed) number one pick Trevor Lawrence. Samuel would find himself in a versatile offensive role with a coaching staff that already has an understanding of his skillset, which could finally help him hit his upside as a top-24 wide receiver.
Carolina Panthers
Samuel could also return to the Panthers and slot in behind Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore once again, taking advantage of lighter coverage as the Panthers’ third receiving option. Carolina lacks depth at the wide receiver position and could very well opt to bring back a productive player who has an established role in their offense. The return of Joe Brady as offensive coordinator means that Samuel would be with a team that understands how to best utilize him. Samuel could see his role reduced a bit next season in Carolina if Christian McCaffrey returns to full health, but he would still factor in as a big part of the offense.
Miami Dolphins
Miami already has a WR1 in DeVante Parker and they have faith in Preston Williams’ ability to be their WR2. However, they have had a rotating cast in the slot receiver position, which is something Curtis Samuel could fix. Samuels’ versatility could also factor in the backfield on occasion given the slew of late or undrafted players Miami currently has. Samuel would be tied to Tua Tagovailoa, an accurate passer who flashed more ability as a short to intermediate passer during his rookie season. The Dolphins could use someone like Samuel to help Tua develop and have the other wide receivers pull coverage on the outsides and keep Samuel open on crossing routes underneath.
Corey Davis
Up until 2020, Corey Davis was seen as a massive bust. In his first three years, Davis played in 42 games, catching 142 of 246 targets for 1,867 yards and six touchdowns. This past season, Davis had his best season playing as the WR2 behind A.J. Brown, collecting 65 receptions on 92 targets for 984 yards and five touchdowns. The former top-10 pick set career highs in receptions, yardage, touchdowns, yards per target, and yards per reception in the last season of his contract. Davis struggled to emerge as a dominant WR1 in his time with Tennessee but saved his best season for last as he gets ready to hit free agency at age 26. He won't command the top-level contract of other names in the last two articles, but NFL teams could hope that he follows the same path as DeVante Parker, a late breakout wide receiver with an alpha receiver body.
Potential Free Agent Fits
Chicago Bears
If Chicago lets Allen Robinson walk, then Corey Davis could be their answer to get a WR1 at a cheaper price. Davis grew up in the Chicago suburbs and has the physical profile of a leading wideout even if he has struggled to occupy that role in Tennesee the past couple of seasons. The Bears would have a massive hole in their wide receiver corp if Robinson leaves, with 151 targets (24% of the team’s target share) and 1,454 air yards vacated. Chicago lacks a solid replacement on their roster for Robinson, so Davis would have an interesting upside as a fantasy asset (assuming the Bears can figure out the quarterback position this offseason).
Baltimore Ravens
If Baltimore opts to go for a cheaper alternative to the wide receiver position, Corey Davis could fill the role they need. Davis showed a better ability to get open in 2020 for Tennessee and would still have Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews to draw opposing coverages. Davis would give Lamar Jackson a bigger receiving target outside of Andrews, which could support strong fantasy seasons. Davis is young enough to fit the timeline of the Ravens and wouldn’t cost as much as the other top-tier receiving options, which would allow Baltimore to keep adding pieces on the offensive and defensive lines.
New York Giants
The Giants have a litany of secondary receiving options in Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and Golden Tate, but none of them have the size of a prototypical WR1. That (and injuries) led to Evan Engram functioning as the top receiver for New York this season. The Giants need a physical receiving option to operate on the outside and continue to allow Slayton, Shepard, and Tate to move through the short to intermediate crossing routes. Davis would provide Daniel Jones a solid perimeter option and safety net as he tries to prove to the Giants that he is their quarterback of the future.
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