RADIO
Dan Fornek analyzes the best fits for three NFL wide receivers who will be hitting free agency soon, including Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Chris Godwin.
With just three games remaining in the 2020 NFL season, it is time to shift our fantasy focus to free agents and teams looking to fill needs from a fantasy perspective. Ultimately only one team can win the Super Bowl every season, but there will be 32 teams trying to win this offseason to put themselves in a position to be seen as a competitor next year (hopefully with fans in the stands across the NFL). This year’s crop of free agents has a ton of depth across the board at skill positions, but especially with wide receivers.
Over the course of the next several articles, I will be taking a look at the top free agents in this class and figuring out ideal and likely fits for them in fantasy football. Because of the depth of the wide receiver position, this position group will be broken up into two parts.
For today, I will be focusing on arguably the top three receivers getting ready to hit free agency and what their ideal or likely fits are from a fantasy perspective. Next week will be a bit bigger list of wide receivers getting ready to get paid and more focused on the optimal fantasy landing spot for each of them. With that being said, let's take a look at an in-depth breakdown of the top three free-agent receivers heading into the 2021 offseason. AirYards data from this article can be found on addmorefunds.com. Salary cap figures were provided by Spotrac.com.
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Allen Robinson
Allen Robinson heads into free agency for the second time in his career with much more momentum than the 2016-2017 season. Robinson hit free agency the first time at age 24 and was coming off an ACL tear in his final season with the Jaguars. He signed a three-year, $42 million deal his first go around and wound up on the Bears with Mitchell Trubisky at the helm. Despite how that has gone, Robinson has continued to be one of the most impressive wide receivers in the NFL.
In his last three years in Chicago, Robinson has amassed 399 targets, 255 receptions, 3,151 yards, and 17 touchdowns while hauling in passes from the superstar quarterback trio of Trubisky, Nick Foles, and Chase Daniel. Since 2018, Robinson has averaged a 23.2% target share in Chicago operating as the de facto alpha receiver. Robinson has made it known that he is looking forward to his impending free agency in recent days, stating in his end of season interviews that “everything is on the table” in regards to his future. Whatever team is willing to pay him is going to get one of the best pass-catchers in the NFL today.
Potential Free Agent Fits
New York Jets
The Jets find themselves at a crossroads heading into the 2021 season. They are searching for a new coach and need to figure out if Sam Darnold is the answer in the Big Apple. Armed with the second pick in the NFL draft, the Jets will have to decide if he is the future or if they would be better off investing in Justin Fields or Zach Wilson going forward. The Jets struggled to move the ball in Adam Gase’s offense last season, totaling just 3,115 passing yards and 16 touchdowns on the season. More than anything, they lack a true WR1. Jamison Crowder led the team with 59 receptions for 699 yards and six touchdowns and Denzel Mims showed promise when healthy during his rookie season.
The Jets have a solid offensive line in place and have around $70 million in available cap space to upgrade their offensive weapons and add defensive players. It remains to be seen if Robinson would be willing to gamble again with a new head coach and a shaky quarterback situation, but heading into potentially his last chance at a big contract, money may talk more than anything else.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals represent an interesting option for Robinson if he is looking to attach himself to an ascending quarterback in a pass-happy offensive scheme. The Bengals' offense showed promise with Joe Burrow at the helm, scoring over 20 points in six of his ten starts despite a patchwork offensive line and an injury to running back Joe Mixon. Burrow completed 65% of his passes and threw for 2,688 yards and 13 touchdowns in just over nine games. A.J. Green struggled to bounce back after several seasons of injuries, catching just 47 passes for 523 yards and two touchdowns. Despite that poor stat line, Green commanded 104 targets and averaged 11.1 yards per reception. The Bengals have Tyler Boyd operating in the slot and had a strong season from rookie wide receiver Tee Higgins but could use a true number one receiver to open up their other weapons.
Zac Taylor is likely heading into 2021 on the hot seat, but he runs an offense that isn’t afraid to sling the ball around in any situation. In his last two seasons as the offensive play-caller, the Bengals have averaged 598.5 passing attempts despite rolling out options like Brandon Allen, Ryan Finley, and Andy Dalton as their starter for 26 of the last 32 games. The Bengals have $42 million in cap space and are losing A.J. Green, John Ross, and Alex Erickson coming off the books. The Bengals need to make a serious investment in their offensive line and could just look to upgrade through the draft, but Robinson would be a serious upgrade to their receiver corp to help Joe Burrow take his game to the next level.
Houston Texans
This is more of a dream scenario than anything, but man would this be a fun pairing. Deshaun Watson is currently feuding with the Houston front office and ownership, but getting him a true WR1 would certainly go a long way to improve his spirits. Despite losing DeAndre Hopkins in the last offseason, Watson completed 70% of his passes for 4,823 yards, 33 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in 2020. The 25-year-old quarterback was able to accomplish that with 15 games of Brandin Cooks, 11 games of Will Fuller V, and tight end Jordan Akins functioning as his third-leading receiver in terms of target share.
It would take a lot of work to get Robinson to Houston. The Texans are still searching for a head coach and are currently sitting at -$17 million in cap space. Houston would have to move around and restructure some deals to make a move to get a player that is the caliber of Robinson’s talent. However, the Texans may want to move on from Will Fuller after injury-plagued seasons and a PED suspension. Robinson would give Watson a go-to pass catcher and the WR would be playing with a quarterback that is lightyears ahead of anybody who has ever thrown him the ball before.
Chicago Bears
We can’t ignore the possibility of Allen Robinson returning to the Bears on a one-year deal via the franchise tag. The tag is projected to cost $15.3 million for wide receivers in 2021, making the total reasonable given past seasons. Robinson has been one of the most productive receivers in the Bears’ history and it would make little sense for the team to just let him walk without receiving any compensation at all. Expect a holdout if Chicago puts the tag on Robinson, but ultimately there is a strong chance the Bears will take the risk and use that as an opportunity to lock him up for the long haul.
In terms of fantasy, the Bears' starting quarterback for the 2021 season is in flux and Matt Nagy will be returning as head coach while also potentially having play-calling duties. That hasn’t capped Robinson's impact in the passing game yet, but it could fuel his desire to slow play showing up to camp at the start of next year.
Chris Godwin
Chris Godwin came into 2020 with massive expectations given his primary role as the slot receiver in Tom Brady’s offense. Unfortunately, injuries limited him to just 12 games this season but Godwin was still able to finish second on the Buccaneers in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns on his way to a WR31 finish in PPR leagues. There has been a steady floor for the WR since Bruce Arians took over the head coaching job in Tampa Bay (his last two seasons) that he can use to his advantage as he hits free agency at age 24.
Since the beginning of the 2019 season, Godwin has played in 26 of 32 possible games and put together 151 receptions on 205 targets (73% catch rate) for 2,173 yards and 16 touchdowns. Despite missing six games in that time, Godwin has averaged a 19.8% target share as the big slot receiver ranks second only behind Mike Evans the last two years, which makes sense considering Evans has played in three more games during that time. Godwin should be highly coveted by teams looking for a young receiver that can generate mismatches in the middle of the field.
Potential Free Agent Fits
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The most logical landing point for Godwin would be right back where he started in Tampa Bay on either a long-term deal or the franchise tag. Bruce Arians loves utilizing the big slot position and Tom Brady loves throwing to slot receivers, making this an excellent pairing. With Tampa operating in win-now mode, it makes sense for them to keep their primary weapons intact considering there is no sign of Tom Brady retiring like his fellow ancient quarterback contemporaries Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Antonio Brown is also set to hit free agency in Tampa Bay this offseason, but his role in the offense could easily be replaced with Scotty Miller or rookie Tyler Johnson compared to Godwin’s. A return to Tampa just makes the most sense for the first-time free agent.
Washington Football Team
If Godwin does hit the open market, the Washington Football Team makes a ton of sense as a landing spot. For starters, Washington currently has just over $43 million to utilize to upgrade their offense, which should be a priority for them given how well their defense performed in their first year under head coach Ron Rivera. As it stands, Washington has a legitimate WR1 in Terry McLaurin, but little else to protect him from getting focused on by opposing defensive coordinators. Running back J.D. McKissic and tight end Logan Thomas were the second and third-leading receivers in Washington and don’t offer much in the way of field-stretching. Cam Sims came on strong to close the season, but he is an undrafted free agent. Godwin would provide an immediate complement to McLaurin in Washington D.C. and would ultimately help the WFT quarterback situation regardless of who they put under center in 2021.
Green Bay Packers
Everybody has been clamoring for the Packers to add a receiving weapon to their offense to help Aaron Rodgers even though the Packers find themselves just one game away from the Super Bowl. A lot of the big names like Allen Robinson have been tied to the Packers, but Godwin may make more sense if he hits the free-agent market. Davante Adams is established as one of the top receivers in the NFL today, but he operates primarily on the outside (just 22% of his snaps came out of the slot in 2020), which would give Godwin free reign to take on his role as the slot receiver in Green Bay. The Packers could also opt to bring back Allen Lazard or use Marquez Valdes-Scantling as their other outside receiver to put opposing secondaries in a bind. An Adams/Godwin pairing with MVS as a field stretcher for Aaron Rodgers would be a nightmare for NFC teams for the foreseeable future. Green Bay would have to do some work with their cap situation (currently $22 million over the cap), but that isn’t anything a few cuts and restructures could solve.
Miami Dolphins
Miami is a young team on the rise, but they lack star power on the offensive side of the ball. Miami has a young quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa but is lacking any weapons to make him comfortable in the passing game. DeVante Parker was able to show that his 2019 breakout (1,202 yards and nine touchdowns) wasn’t a complete fluke, but he only played in 14 games and failed to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards this year. Their second-leading receiver was Mike Gesicki, a tight end that played in 15 games and compiled just 703 yards and six touchdowns. No other Dolphin broke 400 yards receiving on the season. Second-year receiver Preston Williams showed a lot of promise, but his second year in the league ended after eight games due to a foot injury and he has only played in 16 of a possible 32 games so far in his career. Godwin would immediately provide Miami with a legitimate receiving threat that could operate in the slot and allow Parker and a hopefully healthy Williams to enjoy single coverage outside the numbers. With Mike Gesicki running out of the tight end (or opposite slot), it would be difficult to key in on any one receiving threat and would give Tua plenty of options to throw to on any given play.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
It seems like just yesterday that JuJu Smith-Schuster erupted onto the list of top wide receivers in his second season across from Antonio Brown. Smith-Schuster finished his age-22 season with 111 receptions on 166 targets for 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns in 16 games, totals that launched him into the conversation as one of the top young receivers in the league. JuJu has struggled to match that production since that huge season, combining for 139 receptions on 198 targets for 1,383 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last two seasons with Pittsburgh.
While some of that can be attributed to Pittsburgh adding Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Eric Ebron in recent seasons to their pass-catching corp, a lot of it can be seen as the decline in quarterback play for the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger missed most of 2019 with an elbow injury, so JuJu was catching passes from the underwhelming duo of Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges. This season, Roethlisberger made his return, but he was coming off a major elbow injury in his age-38 season, causing him to average 6.4 yards per attempt, the 29th highest mark in the NFL this season. JuJu will likely enter free agency heading into his prime thanks to a collection of receiving weapons in Pittsburgh and a questionable cap situation (negative $21 million on the books), which should give him plenty of options.
Potential Free Agent Fits
New England Patriots
New England’s offense was a mess in 2020 and a lot of it can be tied to the ineffectiveness of their passing attack. The Patriots attempted 440 passing attempts, the second-fewest in the NFL after the Baltimore Ravens. Their 2,890 yards through the air ranked them as the 30th team in the NFL and their 12 total passing touchdowns were tied for the worst mark with the New York Giants. Cam Newton, their starting quarterback for 15 games, had eight passing touchdowns to 10 interceptions on the entire season. As easy as it would be to blame Cam Newton, a lot of this falls on the Patriots’ weapons on the perimeter. New England’s leading receiver was Jakobi Meyers, an undrafted free agent in 2019. Their second-leading receiver was Damiere Byrd, a former undrafted free agent that the Patriots signed in the offseason. Julian Edelman is 34 and N’Keal Harry is seemingly a bust, so New England could use an influx of talent. With $58 million in cap space, JuJu would add a legitimate wide receiver that attacks the intermediate parts of the field and help whoever is under center for the Pats in 2021.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have had some sizable issues on offense pop up since the end of the 2020 season thanks to the retirements of left tackle Anthony Castonzo and quarterback Philip Rivers. However, the Colts enter the 2021 offseason with a good amount of cap space ($56 million) and set at many key positions along the offensive line and on defense. At the wide receiver position, T.Y. Hilton had a solid season in Indianapolis, but he has seemingly lost a step and is entering free agency. Michael Pittman Jr. showed flashes his rookie season, but it may be too soon to ask him to step into the WR1 role. JuJu would help the Colts in many ways, giving them a versatile receiver to fit alongside Pittman, Parris Campbell, and Zach Pascal while fitting the age window they currently have. Smith-Schuster is just one year older than Pittman and Campbell despite being in the league for four seasons. His impact in the passing game would allow head coach Frank Reich to keep moving his players around formations while giving whoever the next quarterback in Indianapolis a talented target.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders flashed a fairly strong passing attack in 2020 despite the lack of a true WR1. Darren Waller led the Raiders in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns from the tight end position. Nelson Agholor would up as their leading receiver as a free agent reclamation project, catching 48 of his 82 targets for 896 yards and eight touchdowns. The Raiders invested heavily in wide receivers the last draft, taking Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards in the NFL draft, although neither player made a significant impact in the passing attack their first season. Agholor will likely head back into free agency after his one strong season, opening up nearly 100 targets in the passing game. JuJu would slot in great for the Raiders, pulling coverage to him and freeing up Jon Gruden to utilize mismatches to get the ball to Waller, Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow, and Edwards. Las Vegas is only $7 million over the cap, so it wouldn’t take much to get the money to bring a star receiver like JuJu to Vegas. Given his love of social media and ability to interact with fans, JuJu would also provide an excellent face to the franchise as the Raiders establish their brand in Sin City, which would be a bonus.
New York Jets
Once again, the Jets find themselves on this list thanks to a lack of talent and a surplus of the salary cap (over $70 million). JuJu would give the Jets a WR1 that would be able to operate on the outside or move to the slot and free up Jamison Crowder. Denzel Mims would be able to operate as the field stretcher and wouldn’t be pressured with being the de facto WR1 after a rookie season that was marred by inaccurate passes and injuries. Plus, with Mike LaFleur taking over the offensive coordinator job for the Jets, JuJu would have a chance to play in the Shanahan offensive scheme that is known for getting players open and taking advantage of opposing secondaries. The WR would be a great fit with Sam Darnold (or whoever the Jets choose to draft) and would fit the age-window New York is currently operating under to try and work towards competitiveness. Between Breshad Perriman and Jeff Smith, the Jets are vacating 97 targets, more than enough for JuJu to have an impact without taking touches from anybody else.
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