Antonio Brown's Fantasy Outlook in Tampa Bay

October 30, 2020

Scott Engel examines possible fantasy football outcomes for wide receiver Antonio Brown in Tampa Bay for the rest of the 2020 NFL season.

Antonio Brown was the hottest pickup of the previous week. We’re not just talking about fantasy football, either. Bruce Arians seems to be as grateful to have him as any of us will be if the troubled fallen star can recapture much of his past form.

The Buccaneers have a definite need for Brown as they continue to deal with injuries at wide receiver. He still has the potential to push an NFL and fantasy team to greater heights at the most important points of each respective season.

What can you expect from Brown during the second half of the fantasy schedule? Here we will examine some of his ROS or "Rest Of Season" possible outcomes.

Why Tampa Bay Needs Antonio Brown

Even before Chris Godwin was ruled out for Week 8 with a fractured finger, Arians told the media that he brought Brown in for necessary depth as the Buccaneers try to make a serious push for supremacy in the NFC. His WR corps has been riddled by injuries so far this season, so the opportunity for Brown to step in and contribute rather quickly and frequently should be there. For both Arians and fantasy players, the upside of a returning potential standout is tantalizing.

After today’s win, Bruce Arians was asked about adding Antonio Brown. He called him “an insurance policy,” noting the injuries the WR group has faced and the low salary. “I believe he’s matured. I believe in second chances.” He says Tom Brady had “nothing to do” with the signing.

— Jeff Darlington (@JeffDarlington) October 25, 2020

Godwin had played in three games this season prior to Week 7 because of hamstring and concussion issues. Mike Evans has been battling through an ankle injury and was limited to eight catches for 88 yards in the past three games. Arians told the media that Evans is playing at 80 percent and Scotty Miller (hip) is at 85 percent.

According to published reports, Brown will likely join the Buccaneers for Week 9. His fantasy outlook, though, remains unclear in terms of what his statistical floor may be in the near future and longer-term for the playoff push. Availability of the other WRs may be uncertain from week to week, but there are no current indicators of any long-term absences for now. How soon Brown will be able to make significant contributions remains to be seen, and you may have to be patient before expecting quality results.

Brown has not played since Week 2 of the 2019 season, so there has to be an expected “grace period” for him to get into true game condition and be able to perform at an adequate level for fantasy purposes. Of course, Brown is considered to be one of the hardest-working wide receivers to have played the game in recent years. He is well known for keeping himself in fine shape and preparing for game days. If this recent video workout clip with Russell Wilson is a true indicator of how Brown can look, we surely should be intrigued by his fantasy promise for the stretch run and playoffs in 2020.

Russell Wilson and Antonio Brown were working together this summer ??

(via @AB84) pic.twitter.com/tQ4XdQe1Jn

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 21, 2020

If anyone may be able to come off a year-plus layoff and get into game flow quickly, it should be Brown. Arians has already raved about how good Brown has looked since he joined the team. But he also did not engage in any real NFL preseason activities of any sort. So you should not be thinking about penciling him into your lineups for Week 9. That is when the fantasy scouting work on Brown will begin. We will simply have to wait and see until we see real signs that he is on the verge of becoming a true threat in the Tampa Bay offense, or he delivers a quality performance. You may not be able to consider starting him until at least Week 10.

When Brown Could  Help Your Fantasy Team

Fantasy football is truly a weekly game, so we have to evaluate Brown carefully on an ongoing basis. Once he returns, Brown can obviously have the most upside if injuries are still an issue at WR for Tampa Bay. The best-case scenario for him from a fantasy perspective is that he is in the starting lineup by Week 11. If both Godwin and Evans are available and healthier by then, Brown will be more of a volatile fantasy play with less of a statistical floor.

In the scenario where Brown has to battle for targets with Godwin and Evans, you should not expect him to cut into Godwin’s value too much. He has already drawn 29 targets in four games and has developed a solid on-field rapport with Tom Brady. Mike Evans, however, has not only been banged up, but he appears to have less chemistry with Brady. Brown could certainly threaten Evans’ fantasy production. In fact, the two could conceivably battle to become the true No. 2 target in the Tampa Bay passing game.

Evans’ usage has been inconsistent, as his reception totals have been the following each week so far: 1-7-2-7-5-1-2. The inconsistency has been obvious, and some of his recent down outings could be partially attributed to his health. But Brown has an obvious on and off-field friend in Brady, who will make a strong effort to get him the ball. Brown’s production may come at the expense of Evans more than Godwin.

In the four games Chris Godwin has played this year, Mike Evans has seen a TOTAL of 12 targets.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 26, 2020

In the longer-term view, a civil trial against Brown is currently set for December and does raise some concerns about his availability for the fantasy playoff portion of the season. But such matters are highly unpredictable and those who added Brown know of the risks associated with him. He is a fantasy gamble who could pay off well in the best-case scenario or could be only a temporary contributor in the worst case.

Projected Outcomes

The more likely upside outlook for Brown is tied to the potential to challenge Evans for a primary role in the passing game and possibly become worthy of fantasy usage from Week 11 and beyond. If injuries continue to be an issue in Tampa Bay, though, he could contend for a regular starting slot in fantasy lineups. While it is overly optimistic to expect Brown to re-emerge as a fantasy star, it cannot be fully ruled out. The most likely positive scenario would see him becoming a quality fantasy WR3.

If Brown has to operate as a third WR and cannot push past Evans in the Buccaneers pecking order, though, he may become more of a streamer type with a boom-or-bust outlook. That should be his floor, while the ceiling remains rather high. Working in his favor is his relationship with Brady and his past familiarity with Arians. Working against him is a long layoff, two other notable WRs to contend with for targets, and an always uncertain future.

Of course, you took on Brown as a well-known risk. If he pans out, he could help boost your fantasy team to a title. If he does not, you can cut him when it becomes apparent that it won’t work out. But considering his desire to regain what he lost career-wise, you should be betting on Brown at least re-emerging as a strong fantasy streamer for your playoff and championship stretches.

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