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Nathan Powell recaps the top five boom or bust plays heading into Week 3.
The Boom or Bust play is one of the most talked about aspects of fantasy football each week. Boom or Bust players can be used in the deep lineup leagues, when it appears you are a heavy underdog in your head-to-head matchup or even in Guaranteed Prize Pool Tournaments in DFS.
In this article, I will cover five of my favorite boom or bust plays for Week 3 of the fantasy football season.
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Quarterback
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers QB vs LA
Jameis Winston has been the definition of a Jekyl and Hyde quarterback through two weeks this season. In Week 1 in Atlanta, Winston was QB5 with 29.35 fantasy points. A trip to Arizona didn’t end as well as he finished with 13.05 fantasy points and a QB29 finish. So, how will Winston fare in the home opener against the Los Angeles Rams? I am projecting a bounce back for Winston despite a tough matchup against a Rams defense that allowed only three points to the Seahawks Week 2.
Doug Martin is out for this game with a hamstring injury, which makes Charles Sims the primary running back and his best skill set is his ability in the passing game. Winston and the Buccaneers will be throwing early and often against the Rams defense, which can only be a good thing for the young quarterback's fantasy prospects this week.
Verdict: Boom
Running Back
Jerick McKinnon, Vikings RB vs Panthers
Adrian Peterson is projected to be out for the foreseeable future this season, which has the fantasy football world extremely excited for metrics-extraordinaire Jerick McKinnon to have the best opportunity of his career thus far. I am a big fan of McKinnon as a talent, but I am not as excited as others about his current opportunity, particularly this week.
Matt Asiata out carried McKinnon 6-2 last week, and despite the hopes of the fantasy world, I think Asiata will be a legitimate part of the Vikings offense this week and moving forward. Additionally, even if McKinnon does get enough volume to be startable this week, the Panthers are far from a plus matchup. They allowed the fourth fewest rushing yards in the NFL in 2015, and not much has changed there from a personnel perspective to expect a big regression.
Verdict: Bust
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton, Colts WR vs Chargers
Traditionally, T.Y. Hilton is one of the safest plays in fantasy football. Hilton had only 4 games below 8 PPR points in 2015, despite being without Andrew Luck for the second half of the season. So, why is he a boom/bust play in Week 3? He is facing one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL in Jason Verrett. Through the first two weeks of the season, Jeremy Maclin and Allen Robinson have combined for a total of 8 receptions for 117 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. Is that terrible production? Not exactly, but it also isn’t typical Maclin and Robinson production.
The Colts will be without Donte Moncrief Week 3. While that may result in a couple extra targets, it just means that those targets will be better contested with Phillip Dorsett being better suited as a teams #3 wide receiver than a #2 at this point.
Verdict: Bust
Tight End
Coby Fleener, Saints TE vs Atlanta
Coby Fleener? Really? Coby Fleener. No, I obviously haven’t been hurt enough by Fleener through two weeks of the season. At the tight end position, it is all about targets, and despite his poor play, he has been targeted 12 times in the first two games. I expect Fleener to continue to be targeted like he has been.
Daily Fantasy players are salivating over this Atlanta vs New Orleans matchup with an over/under of 53.5. This game projects to be a shootout and rostering the so-far disappointing Fleener is a cheap way to get exposure to this game.
Verdict: Boom
Hail Mary of the Week
In the Hail Mary of the Week, I will choose a Boom/Bust candidate who is available on the waiver wire in most fantasy football leagues and could have a big week:
Sammie Coates, Steelers WR at Philadelphia
Sammie Coates has 4 catches for 153 receiving yards in the first two weeks of the season. If a 38.25 yards per catch average doesn’t scream hail mary pick, I don’t know what does. Coates has a plus matchup against the Eagles. The Steelers are using Coates exactly how we thought they would, similarly to how they used Martavis Bryant in 2015. He may not get the same volume Bryant got, but when Big Ben has taken deep shots in the first two weeks, Coates has often been targeted, and not Eli Rogers or even Antonio Brown. With Le’Veon Bell still on the sideline due to suspension, Coates has a good chance at getting in the end zone Week 3.
