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Welcome back to RotoBaller's 2016 Bold Predictions series. We've heard from several writers already, but have plenty more fearless forecasts coming down the pike. Today, it's my turn to put my sterling reputation on the line.
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Bold Predictions for 2016
1) Mark Teixeira will play more than 140 games
I realize that I'm swinging for the fences on the very first pitch of the first game of the season with this one. But, before going down with another injury in 2015, Tex was on pace for 40 home runs and 110 RBI's. And although failing to play in over 130 games for the fourth straight season, there appeared to be a lot more life in the veteran first baseman's bat. Now, auditioning for either a contract extension or a starting gig elsewhere, Tex will do all he can to stay on the field and take advantage of the short right field porch at Yankees Stadium. A prediction within a prediction, Tex will reach and exceed last year's home run and RBI totals.
2) Will Smith to finish within top 10 of saves
Na na na na na-na-na-na, na na na na na-na, Will Smith will get jiggy with it this season for the Milwaukee Brewers. Although currently in a spring training competition with hard throwing reliever, Jeremy Jeffress, it will be surprising if Smith doesn't emerge as the Brew Crew closer. Milwaukee scored the ninth fewest runs in the MLB last season and are likely to see a slight rise in the rankings with Ryan Braun and Jonathon Lucroy healthy, and the acquisitions of Khris Davis, Will Middlebrooks, and Domingo Santana. Not enough to contend in the best division in the league, but enough to stay in games, take leads late, and set up Smith with plenty of save opportunities. Smith has picked up 50 holds in two seasons and is ready to take his thrown as the prince of Milwaukee's bullpen.
3) Jacoby Ellsbury will steal more than 40 stolen bases
I'm not biased towards my Yankees, I promise. I'm simply confident that all the money the Bombers dumped on all these players heading towards AARP membership is finally going to pay off. To an extent, of course. Ellsbury has looked focused thus far into spring training and is quite possibly the most important part of the Yankees lineup. It's up to Ellsbury to get on base and put himself into scoring position for the rest of the big bats that follow. Not saying that Ellsbury will reach stolen base totals like he did with the Red Sox, but he will reach a pinstripes career high and exceed the 39 he stole two seasons ago. Health is of course a big factor here, but with the acquisition of Aaron Hicks, Ellsbury will get his days off and keep his legs fresh to compliment the undeniable speed he's gifted with.
4) Miami Marlins to contend in the NL East
With Don Mattingly at the helm and hitting coach Barry Bonds competing in an impromptu home run derby with Giancarlo Stanton, the Miami Marlins finally have the makeover they've so desperately needed. Last season was a step in the right direction, finishing third in the NL East, but with a healthy Stanton and Jose Fernandez, along with Dee Gordon and up-and-coming catcher J.T. Realmuto, the Marlins have plenty of talent, and potential, to knock on Washington's and New York's door, and announce their arrival. Veterans Ichiro Suzuki and Martin Prado, alongside Donnie Baseball and Bonds, will mentor and help all the young talent on Miami and will at least find themselves in striking distance of first place all season.
5) Nolan Arenado wins National League MVP
So this one isn't exactly that bold considering his numbers from 2015, but after putting up 130 RBI in one season and not winning, what else does Arenado need to do to get the nod? It's simple; have a better 2016 campaign than Bryce Harper. There is no reason to believe that Arenado will regress this season. Evidence points to him getting even better. Arenado is 24 years old and has been in the league only three years. He's still maturing every day, and adjusting to big league pitching. Arenado hit .339 in September and .313 in the shortened October, ending the season with his two highest batting averages in any month. That will transfer over come Opening Day. It also always helps batting at Coors Field for half the season. Plus, there's no way Harper can repeat, right?
6) Blake Swihart will finish inside Top 10 of fantasy catchers
Swihart is undoubtedly the future of the Boston Red Sox. After receiving quite a bit of praise from Boston's last franchise catcher, Jason Varitek, in the offseason, Swihart is well on his way to following in his footsteps. Swihart posted five home runs, 31 RBI's, and 17 doubles in 288 at-bats last season, and will see a boost in plate appearances as he enters 2016 as the Red Sox starting catcher. Swihart also provides some speed out of the catcher position, not as much as Realmuto, but enough to increase his fantasy-appeal. Swihart batted .303 in his final 44 games of 2015 and is capable of teetering around .300 for an entire season, just as long as he cuts down on the strikeouts. In his upcoming second season, Swihart will grow exponentially and become more patient at the plate.
7) Aaron Hicks will play more games than Brett Gardner
Hicks can hit against lefties. Gardner cannot.
Hicks posted a .307 average against south paws last season while Gardner didn't even come close to that against lefties or righties. Hicks enters 2016 at a young 26 years old and is likely to be rotated into the lineup often, relieving not only Gardner but Carlos Beltran and Ellsbury as well, both of whom struggle against lefties as well. Hicks has yet to play more than 100 games in a season since starting with the Twins three years ago, but has continued to improve in every stat category. He can provide some pop at the plate and speed on the base paths. Gardner has never quite utilized his speed to full potential and has often hesitated before taking off from first. The Yankees and Yankees fans continuously wait for Gardner to break out, but Hicks will be the one doing so this season, and provide a youthful spark to an aging lineup.
8) Tyler Duffey: American League Cy Young candidate
Duffey stormed onto the scene at the beginning of August and was a huge part of Minnesota's late season run. The Twins won all but two of Duffey's 10 starts and averaged 6.9 runs during each of the young righty's starts. Entering only his second stint in the Bigs, Duffey has already proven that he's got the stuff to sustain his 3.10 ERA and 1.31 WHIP for an entire season. The Twins are once again on the rise and finished with the 13th most runs scored in 2016. The run support will undoubtedly be there again for Duffey, and since he will pitch the way he did in 2015, he won't need too much help in his first full season as a big league pitcher. Duffey relinquished more than three runs in only one of his starts and two or less in eight. The one game where he was tagged for more; his first start in the MLB against the surging Toronto Blue Jays.
9) Joe Mauer will bat .300
Alright, so maybe this is a bit of a stretch, but Mauer played 158 games last season; his highest total in 12 professional seasons. Even though his .265 average was the lowest of his career, expect Mauer to bounce back and show why he has been one of the best hitters in the past 10 years. It's only been two seasons since Mauer batted .324 in 2013 and will enter his second straight campaign as a full-time first baseman. He still managed to pick up 157 hits in his career high 592 at-bats, and while the Twins are likely willing to trade some points on his average for his continuous health, Mauer will combine his newly found durability with his ability to hit above .300, as he's done seven other times in his career.
10) At least one Colorado Rockies pitcher will win 10 games
In 2015, Jorge De La Rosa led Rockies pitchers with nine wins. Coors Field has never been too friendly to pitchers, yet is one of the best places to swing a bat. The Rockies scored the fifth most runs in the league last season and will finish 2016 with over 700 runs scored again. This should aid in Rockies pitchers picking up more wins, as the Rockies field one of the best lineups in baseball. Nolan Arenado continues to rise and impress while Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Nick Hundley, Gerardo Parra, D.J. LeMahieu, Jose Reyes, Ben Paulsen, and Mark Reynolds are all more than capable of driving in a ton of runs and going deep over 10 times in a season. There should be no reason why De La Rosa or even Chad Bettis don't pick up 10 wins with such an abundance of power hitters backing them up. De La Rosa has won 16 games twice with the Rockies and will certainly lead their shaky rotation again.
