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Frank's deep dive into starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, waiver wire adds for Week 16 of 2026. Are these unlikely aces potential league winners?
It's time for the Week 16 edition of our Unlikely Aces column for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. This is a column where we dive into pitchers who are performing above expectations, hence the term "Unlikely Aces." The goal here is to dive in to see if there are any tangible improvements worth noting.
This season, it's been extremely difficult for pitching, as there have been several injuries, most notably to Garrett Crochet and Cole Ragans, who have been out for a while. Ragans is out for the year. That's why it's even more necessary for unlikely aces, as they're able to keep your starting rotation afloat while you navigate injuries. The big question to consider here is, can they keep it up? Or are they more likely to regress?
This week, we're focusing on Sonny Gray, Robbie Ray, and Taj Bradley. Two of these pitchers are dependable veterans. One should retain value, while another looks like a prime regression candidate. The other Unlikely Ace that we're focusing on looks like a true breakout pitcher this season. It's the case of a young arm finally putting it all together. With that in mind, we're going to see whether these pitchers can keep it going. Let's take a closer look, using rostered percentages from Yahoo! leagues. Each of these players is widely rostered, so they're more of trade candidates than waiver pickups.
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Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox
97% Rostered
Sonny Gray has been a valuable veteran pitcher for several years now, but I have to be honest, I was a bit skeptical about him as he entered his age-36 season in a hitter-friendly environment like Fenway Park. That couldn't have been more wrong, at least in the first half of the season, as Gray currently has a 2.54 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with a 22.3% strikeout rate and a 6.3% walk rate in 95.2 innings. Gray is doing a great job with elite command (82nd percentile) and inducing groundballs (77th percentile).
If we look at his pitch mix, we see some minor changes. Gray is leaning on his cutter more, increasing its usage from 12.6% to 20.3%. He's decreased his four-seamer usage from 21.7% to 18.7%, while continuing to lean on the sweeper (19.6%). The sweeper has been by far his most effective pitch, inducing a .213 xwOBA and a 38.1% whiff rate. But other than the cutter/four-seamer changes, the pitch mix is relatively similar.
Sonny Gray tonight against Texas:
6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 Ks
Retired 14 Rangers in a row at after a few hits and a run to start the game. His ERA for the year is down to 3.03. pic.twitter.com/eHTu1rTOFm
— Gordo (@BOSSportsGordo) June 13, 2026
Gray finished his first half on a high note. In his last 12 starts, he has a 1.98 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP with a 25.4% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate in 72.2 innings. During this stretch, he's been one of the most effective pitchers in baseball. I know we all viewed Gray as a dependable veteran to round out your rotation, but not one expected him to be this dominant.
But the biggest question is, will this be sustainable? If we look at Gray's overall underlying metrics, we see that his 3.81 SIERA is much higher than his 2.54 ERA. He also has a .273 BABIP, which is one of the lowest of his career. We also see that Gray's swinging-strike rate has plummeted from 12.1% to 9.6%, so he isn't inducing whiffs at nearly the same rate. In other words, there's no clear difference between Gray and what he's always been.
Verdict: Gray is someone you can try to sell-high on to see if you can get a better value with more upside. Perhaps someone like Eury Perez makes sense. However, if you can't get a deal done, just ride the wave with Gray. Yes, he'll regress, but he's still be a valuable mid-level arm to provide strong ratios for your rotation.
Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants
87% Rostered
When I was looking to choose players for this week's article, I didn't expect that Robbie Ray would fit the bill of an "Unlikely Ace." But I was surprised to see that he has a 3.38 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP with a 20.3% strikeout rate and an 11.7% walk rate in 106.2 innings. The strikeout rate is way down from 24.6% to 20.3%, but he's on quite a roll lately.
In his last five starts, he has a 1.08 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP with an 18.6% strikeout rate and a 12.4% walk rate. While that's a bit intriguing, the lack of strikeouts and high walks is concerning. The underlying metrics don't support this hot stretch either, as highlighted by a 5.13 SIERA. Ray's SIERA for the season is 4.95, which is significantly higher than his 3.38 ERA.
While I wasn't actively targeting Ray this draft season, I thought that the overall hate he got from the fantasy community was a bit too much.
Everyone hates Robbie Ray this year.
He often falls way past ADP.
Ray was 1 of only 12 SPs to go 180+ IP with a 24.5+ K% in 2025:
Logan Webb
Garrett Crochet
Christopher Sanchez
Carlos Rodon
Tarik Skubal
Paul Skenes
Bryan Woo
Hunter Brown
Jesus Luzardo
Nick Pivetta
Sonny Gray— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) February 4, 2026
When looking at Ray's pitch mix, we see that he's reduced his four-seamer usage from 51.9% to 36.0%. His changeup is also not nearly as effective, as its whiff rate has dropped from 39.2% to 24.3%. Simply put, this is no longer a pitcher who can eat innings and rack up strikeouts. Now, all he gives you is volume with some solid ratios when he's running hot, as he was towards the All-Star Break.
Verdict: There's really not a lot of upside with Ray moving forward. Sure, he's had a nice little run, but he's nothing more than a backend starter or matchup-based streamer going forward.
Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins
78% Rostered
Taj Bradley has always been an intriguing talent, but it looks like he's finally putting it all together this season. The 25-year-old right-hander has a 3.59 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with a 27.4% strikeout rate and a 9.3% walk rate in 102.2 innings. You have to love the strikeout upside that Bradley brings to the table, as he has three outings with double-digit punchouts this season.
In his last five starts, he has a 2.32 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP with a 31.7% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate. During this stretch, he has an impressive 3.19 SIERA. For the season, Bradley has a 3.76 SIERA, which is pretty close to his 3.59 SIERA, so I'm optimistic that this breakout is sustainable. This is especially the case because Bradley has always had the talent to be a high-end starter.
Taj Bradley strikes out the side 🔥
He's got 10 Ks through 4 innings! pic.twitter.com/y1Ewx6e6HK
— MLB (@MLB) July 2, 2026
In terms of pitch mix, Bradley has three pitches with a 38% whiff rate or better, including a cutter, splitter, and curveball. Add in a four-seamer that sits at 96.9 MPH, and you can see that this is a righty who has the necessary weapons to reach his full potential. This looks like a true breakout season, so enjoy the ride moving forward.
Verdict: I'd be even looking to buy high on Bradley. After a brief rough patch in the middle of the first half, it appears as if he's figured it out. Expect a 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP with a near 30% strikeout rate. Can't be mad at numbers like that, especially from one of your mid-level starters.
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