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Dave's Week 12 NFL player props picks and anytime touchdown wagers. Get his best Week 12 NFL player prop bets with odds, expert analysis and predictions. Top weekly NFL prop bets and winning picks.
The 2025 NFL season continues to move at warp speed. As the holidays draw near, we are also coming toward the end of the NFL regular season.
We witnessed a slew of injuries across the league last weekend. Some of these injuries will impact the player prop market going forward. We also have to be ready to make our own adjustments as teams make improvements, or in some cases, get worse during the second half of the season. The betting lines typically are their sharpest at this time of the year. However, there are still some great opportunities out there to turn a profit.
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Here are some of my favorite player props for Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season.
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Week 12 Passing Prop Bets
J.J. McCarthy UNDER 17.5 Completions (+101) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .5 Units to Win .5 Units
So far, McCarthy looks like he is a massive bust. He is struggling to see the field, make consistent throws, and just doesn’t look the part as a starting-caliber NFL quarterback.
McCarthy struggled mightily in what should have been a plus matchup against the Chicago Bears last weekend. Now he goes against one of the best defenses in the NFL this week. The Green Bay Packers rank second in PFF’s pass coverage grade and have allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards per game in the league.
Minnesota’s QB1 has only completed 52.9% of his passes this year. I expect his struggles to continue this weekend and think we might see the bottom completely fall out in this game.
Drake Maye OVER 36.5 Yards Longest Completion (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .57 Units to Win .5 Units
Maye’s incredible sophomore season continues, and his MVP odds have now climbed to +185. This weekend is another spot where his hot streak should continue, as the Bengals have been one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
Cincinnati ranks 32nd in FTN Fantasy's defensive passing DVOA, 27th in PFF’s pass coverage grade, and allows the second-most passing yards per game in the NFL. New England should have no resistance to moving the ball however they like. Wide receiver Kayshon Boutte is also set to return to the Patriots' lineup this weekend. His presence could mean we see Maye and the passing game pop for a few big plays down the field.
I like playing this prop as opposed to Maye’s yardage total, as there’s a scenario where New England gets ahead multiple scores early and relies on its ground game to pick up the win.
*This line has moved to 37.5. I would still play it at this number, but would scale down in units.*
Kirk Cousins UNDER 31.5 Yards Longest Completion (-110) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .55 Units to Win .5 Units
Cousins re-takes the reins as Atlanta’s QB1 following a season-ending knee injury to Michael Penix Jr. Given how Cousins played against the Miami Dolphins in Week 8, that’s probably not a good thing for Atlanta’s offense.
Cousins just hasn’t looked like the same player since tearing his Achilles tendon a few years ago. His arm strength is not there, and his ability to drive the ball down the field is all but gone. Atlanta will also be missing WR1 Drake London in this game, and that will also limit the Falcons’ pass attack.
Even though Cousins has two players capable of getting downfield in Kyle Pitts Sr. and Darnell Mooney, this offense is much easier to defend with London out and Cousins at the helm. Expect this offense to struggle and Cousins to continue looking like an aging, over-the-hill veteran in this game.
Week 12 Rushing Prop Bets
Kenneth Walker III OVER 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
Walker played well last week against a good Los Angeles Rams run defense. He ran for 67 yards on 16 carries and scored his fourth rushing touchdown of the year.
Kenneth Walker III for the score! +6️⃣
📺: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/gYX2j7Wt5R
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) November 16, 2025
What was most eye-opening, though, were the comments made by Walker’s head coach, Mike Macdonald, following last weekend’s game.
Kenneth Walker III in Line to See More Backfield Work? https://t.co/845PeGGjc1
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) November 18, 2025
Last week in this space, we outlined a slew of data points that showed Walker is the superior back to Zach Charbonnet. It seems as though the Seattle coaching staff is starting to recognize this fact, and we could soon see a backfield shift in Walker’s favor.
If Walker does see an increased role, this is the perfect spot for him to post a big game. The Seahawks are fresh off a disappointing loss to the Rams last week. Quarterback Sam Darnold threw a season-high four interceptions in that game. We are very likely to see Seattle lean into the ground game to help take some pressure off Darnold and help him rebuild his confidence.
That would be great news for Walker, as Tennessee ranks 26th in defensive rushing DVOA and allows 134.7 rushing yards per game. The Titans have also allowed the fourth-most explosive rushing yards in 2025 per Fantasy Points Data Suite. That weakness aligns pretty well with Walker’s strengths.
I played this line at 55.5 earlier in the week for a full unit and threw some cash on his alt lines as well. I expect Macdonald to stay true to his word and give Walker a bigger piece of the rushing pie. Don't be shocked if Walker pops for his best game of the season.
Saquon Barkley UNDER 78.5 Rushing Yards (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit
Barkley has gone over this number just three times all year. He saw a lot of volume against the Detroit Lions in Week 11 and had 83 rushing yards, but only averaged a paltry 3.2 yards per carry.
The Eagles draw a road matchup against the Dallas Cowboys this weekend. On paper, it looks like a good spot for Barkley, as Dallas ranks 29th in defensive rushing DVOA and 30th in PFF's rushing defense grade. However, a few things are working against Barkley in this matchup that I believe the market has overlooked.
For starters, Philadelphia will be without standout left tackle Lane Johnson in this game, and we cannot overstate the impact of his absence. Dallas’ run defense was also much better in Week 11, and the team finished the week fourth in defensive rushing DVOA.
That was significant because it marked defensive tackle Quinnen Williams' first game as a Cowboy. Even though it came against the lowly Las Vegas Raiders, Dallas’ rushing defense looked much improved. Pairing Williams, who is PFF’s second-highest graded defensive lineman in terms of rush defense, with Kenny Clark and Solomon Thomas gives Dallas a sneaky good defensive front to limit opposing ground games.
As a result, I think Dallas’ current defensive rushing metrics could be a bit misleading relative to what we may see in this game. Combine that with Philadelphia being down one of its top offensive linemen, and this looks like a perfect spot to fade Barkley. I would play this line for a full unit down to 70.5
Ashton Jeanty UNDER 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
Jeanty has been very disappointing during his rookie season and is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry. However, that does not tell the whole story. The Raiders only rank 26th in PFF’s run blocking grade, and the offensive line has been downright awful.
The rookie has routinely been hit in the backfield in every game this year and has not had much running room. Now, Las Vegas takes on one of the best run defenses in the NFL this weekend. The Cleveland Browns rank first in PFF’s rushing defense grade and first in defensive rushing DVOA. Cleveland has also held opposing rushers to just 3.9 yards per carry this season.
It’s hard to envision a scenario where Jeanty pops for a big game against this defense. That makes this another good spot to fade the Raiders' first-round pick. Hopefully, the Las Vegas brass realizes another house-cleaning is needed and Jeanty gets a fresh start in 2026. Until then, we should expect Jeanty to continue to struggle in this offense, and he will likely do so again in Week 12.
Week 12 Receiving Prop Bets
Tee Higgins UNDER 71.5 Receiving Yards (-114) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1.14 Units to Win 1 Unit
With Ja’Marr Chase set to miss this weekend’s game serving a one-game suspension, that puts Higgins in line to function as the team’s WR1. Conventional logic would dictate that this is the perfect time to back Higgins. However, that may not necessarily be the case.
Chase’s suspension now locks Higgins in for a showdown with star Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez. He is one of the best cover corners in the league and is known for completely neutralizing a team’s top receiver. This is problematic for Higgins as he profiles more as a throwback, vertical X receiver, and may not move around the formation much in this game. That would mean he will be going against Gonzalez for most of his reps.
Even though New England has been vulnerable to opposing passing attacks this season, it could have success shutting down a Cincinnati Bengals attack missing its best weapon. That would also spell trouble for Higgins. I feel like this line is over-inflated thanks to Chase’s absence, and believe this is a good spot to sell-high on Higgins’ props.
A.J. Barner UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-185) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .93 Units to Win .5 Units
Barner is coming off a big performance in Week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams. He posted a 10-70-0 line on 11 targets in that game. Those 11 targets were also a season high. However, this weekend looks like a spot where we will see Barner’s numbers regress.
Seattle takes on the Tennessee Titans this weekend. While Tennessee’s defense has been far from good, it has quietly done well against opposing tight ends. The Titans rank seventh in DVOA against the position and allow an average of 46.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends, too.
We could also see the Seahawks turn to their running game to take some pressure off quarterback Darnold following a poor performance in Week 11. Less passing output would also hurt Barner’s upside. Truthfully, he probably only saw an increase in targets last week because Seattle was in a negative game script.
That all makes this feel like it’s a perfect spot to sell-high on Barner, and I plan to do just that.
Week 12 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown (+175) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .5 Units to Win .88 Units
The Cincinnati Bengals' defense has been bad this year, but it’s been downright awful against opposing tight ends. Cincinnati ranks 31st in DVOA against tight ends and has allowed the most receiving touchdowns to the position.
This is a good spot to take a stab at Henry finding the endzone. Plus odds make it even better.
Shedeur Sanders Anytime Touchdown (+625) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .25 Units to Win 1.6 Units
Sanders was awful in relief during the team’s Week 11 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. We’ll see how he fares this weekend with a full week of preparation.
Sanders has a nasty habit of trying to create with his legs and extending plays in the process. The issue is that he is not a good enough athlete at the NFL level for this approach to work. However, the Raiders' defense is a middle-of-the-road unit, so the Cleveland rookie may have some success here.
I’ll take a shot at Sanders finding the endzone on some kind of broken play or scramble.
Kenneth Gainwell Anytime Touchdown (+333) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.33 Units
We’ll see if Jaylen Warren suits up for the Steelers this weekend. Even if he does, I still like Gainwell’s chances to find the endzone in this game. He played well in relief of Warren last weekend and scored two touchdowns in the process.
Touchdown #️⃣2️⃣ for KG 💪 @KENNETHGAINWEL
📺 #CINvsPIT on @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/IppHYwmqIJ
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) November 16, 2025
Chicago’s defense played better against the Minnesota Vikings last week, but the team still allowed 115 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Bears still rank just 28th in defensive rushing DVOA and 23rd in PFF’s run defense grade.
With Aaron Rodgers either limited or forced to miss Sunday’s game, we will likely see Pittsburgh deploy a run-heavy game plan to expose a key weakness in Chicago’s defense. We know Steelers' offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is not averse to mixing in other running backs, so Gainwell could poach a touchdown from Warren even if the latter does suit up. Plus, Gainwell is also live to score another touchdown through the air.
This is a good matchup to take a shot on the veteran back finding the endzone for the second straight week.
Long Shot Props & Value Plays
Jahmyr Gibbs Most Rushing Yards - Sunday Only (+1300) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 1.3 Units
Jameis Winston Most Passing Yards - Sunday Only (+2000) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 2 Units
Kenneth Walker III Most Rushing Yards - Sunday Only (+2500) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 2.5 Units
Weather & Surface Impact Analysis
Severe weather conditions can have a major impact on NFL games. It can influence play-calling and thus affect props totals.
Just make sure you keep an eye on the forecasts as we get closer to game time.
Week 12 Props Summary
Here's a quick, handy recap of all the props I recommended in this article in one place!
- J.J. McCarthy UNDER 17.5 Completions (+100) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Drake Maye OVER 36.5 Yards Longest Completion (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Kirk Cousins UNDER 31.5 Yards Longest Completion (-110) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Kenneth Walker III OVER 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Saquon Barkley UNDER 78.5 Rushing Yards (-110) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Ashton Jeanty UNDER 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Tee Higgins UNDER 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114) DraftKings Sportsbook
- A.J. Barner UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-163) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown (+150) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Shedeur Sanders Anytime Touchdown (+600) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Kenneth Gainwell Anytime Touchdown (+175) Bet365 Sportsbook
Thanks for reading, and make sure you check back again before Sunday for updated info and more betting content from RotoBaller!
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