NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 4 Targets and Avoids

September 27, 2025

The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season. Kevin's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids -- expert picks for survivor leagues.

Welcome back to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season! There are so many different pools, fantasy leagues, weekly bets, and futures bets that it's hard to decide what to do with these choices. But survivor pools are the oldest and simplest leagues out there. All you have to do is pick a team and have it win, but you can't choose the same team again.

All season long, I'll bring you weekly survivor pool advice for NFL teams to target and teams to avoid each week. Survivor league strategy is a major part of winning your pools, and this article will help you through the 2025 NFL season. We're ready to preview Week 4, with more information and data points about each team to help guide you on your quest to win your survivor pool!

It's Week 4, and we're starting to figure out who these teams are in 2025. But that doesn't mean we won't sweat these games out, as Green Bay was upset by the Cleveland Browns in Week 3. Not great! That game was the first true landmine of Survivor Pools. Will we get another in Week 4? Let's get some boilerplate stuff out of the way before diving right in with our picks for Week 4 of the NFL season.

Survivor Pool Tools and Resources

Love survivor pools as much as we do? Of course you do. Be sure to check these out:

Survivor Picks Tool
Optimize your weekly picks and plan your future picks with our free new Survivor Pool Picks Tool!

Survivor League Guide
For detailed Survivor Pool strategy and tips to help you win, check out our "How To Win Your Survivor League" guide!

Implied Point Totals, Point Spreads, and Over/Under Totals for Week 4

Before jumping into the picks for Week 4, it's helpful to get an overview of the slate with implied point totals, point spreads, and over/under totals from betting markets. All implied totals come courtesy of FantasyLabs each week.

My Weekly Survivor Picks

• Week 1: Denver Broncos (def. Tennessee 20-12)
• Week 2: Los Angeles Rams (def. Tennessee 33-19)
• Week 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (def. NY Jets 29-27)
• Status: STILL ALIVE!

I really played with fire in Week 3, but hey, a win is a win! After the Packers took out a chunk of the field in nearly every Survivor Pool still going, it could be a spot to play it a bit safe this week to advance to Week 5.

Now, let's look at the survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 4.

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 4

Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints

My pick for Week 4

With the likelihood of a decent part of your Survivor Pool field being taken out by the Green Bay Packers losing to the Cleveland Browns in Week 3, your plan for Week 4 may be to just play it safe and advance. The Buffalo Bills offer a sense of security as they host the New Orleans Saints in Week 4.

The Bills are massive 16.5-point favorites at home against the Saints, who were blown out in Week 3 by the Seattle Seahawks 44-13. While the Saints have been plucky and hung around in the first two weeks of the season with the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers, the Seahawks dropped the hammer with an emphatic win.

This game features the combination of the Bills having the highest implied point total of any game thus far through four weeks and the Saints having the lowest implied point total of any game this season. While there are no sure things in the NFL, this feels as a safe of a spot as any with a dominant Bills team at home against a Saints team that just got demolished by a mid-level Seahawks team.

While there are still good spots to use the Bills later this season, this is a Week 4 pick made solely in the name of advancing to Week 5. We've got to use the good teams eventually, and I'm fine with using one of them this week, given that this week features a limited amount of games with point spreads over 7.0 points.

Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Denver Broncos were in a slugfest with the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3 and while they lost 23-20, it was anybody's game. For Week 4, the Broncos come back home to host the reeling Cincinnati Bengals, who were thoroughly dominated by Isaiah Rodgers and the Minnesota Vikings' defensive unit to the tune of a 48-10 blowout.

At home in Week 4, Denver is a 7.0-point favorite against the Joe Burrow-less Bengals, who struggled on the road against the Vikings' excellent and opportunistic defense. Denver's defense is no slouch either, and Cincinnati backup quarterback Jake Browning looked every bit like backup with just 140 yards on 27 pass attempts and two turnovers to compound issues.

According to the RotoBaller Survivor Picks Tool, the Broncos have the 11th-highest future value left this season, but I actually think it should be lower in future value. Their highlighted matchups feature a Jets team that could have Justin Fields back by then, a Giants team that is a pure "Jekyll and Hyde" team and could be improved with Jaxson Dart at the helm, and a divisional matchup with the Raiders. While the Broncos are a good team, getting this current version of the Bengals feels like a slam dunk right now.

Other Survivor Picks in Consideration:

• Detroit Lions (vs. CLE)
• Los Angeles Chargers (at NYG)

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 4

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

Upon looking at some of the odds set for Week 4, I looked at this particular game and couldn't believe what I saw. I had to rub my eyes and question what I was seeing. Do I need an eye exam? What have the Houston Texans done to deserve being a 7.0-point favorite at home against ANY team? Even a team like the Tennessee Titans, who haven't looked very good this season?

It's not like the Texans are world-beaters by any means; they've been one of the worst offenses in the NFL with the fifth-lowest EPA per play. Even on defense, which people look to as one of the few redeeming qualities of the Texans, the team is just 18th in the NFL in EPA allowed per play. C.J. Stroud has looked terrible, the run game is inefficient, and Nico Collins must have a strong back because he is carrying this team right now on offense.

For the Titans, they're not much better in EPA per play on offense, as they're second-to-last behind the Bengals and the fourth-worst team in the league in EPA per play allowed. Cam Ward and this offense is a work in progress, but in a game that has the lowest over/under total of the entire Week 4 slate, it's likely a low-scoring affair that should keep the Titans in the game at the very least.

I don't want to use the Texans here, even is this matchup against the Titans is by far the best spot to use the Texans all season. There's nothing here that gives me any confidence in taking them here in Week 4.

New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers

The New England Patriots have been a puzzling team so far this season, despite quarterback Drake Maye taking a big leap in his second season. He's still dealing with one of the worst receiving groups in the league and the running game has yet to feature their most dynamic player: rookie TreVeyon Henderson. Even at home, the Patriots being 5.5-point favorites against the Carolina Panthers doesn't feel very good.

The Panthers put forth an excellent defensive effort against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3, blanking them 30-0 on the strength of three turnovers and a defensive touchdown. Even on the road in Foxboro for Week 4, I'm not sure how a 5.5-point line in favor of New England can be justified. I know the Panthers likely aren't very good, but the Panthers have shown more on offense this season than the Patriots have.

This is a game where people could see this line and play it a bit cute by taking the Patriots based on that factor.  I understand the play of taking a team to win who isn't very likely to be used all season and saving the good teams for later weeks. That said, I have zero confidence in either team and there are at least a dozen teams I'd rather place my bet on to advance in my Survivor Pool than the Patriots.

Other Risky Survivor Picks:

• Indianapolis Colts (at LAR)
• San Francisco 49ers (vs. JAC)

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