Potential Fantasy Football Running Back Fades: Offensive Line Fallers (2026)

August 7, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo's running back fantasy football draft fades for 2026. These running backs could deal with worse blocking in 2026 and include Josh Jacobs, Chuba Hubbard, and others.

Last week, I wrote about several running backs who could be ready for big seasons running behind improved offensive lines. A lot of folks read it, and there doesn't seem to be a lot of other analysts who are interested in breaking down offensive line stats and metrics, so I have decided to run it back with some running backs whom I will be fading because they could have worse blocking this season than they had in 2025.

I'll say this again. I think we overlook how important a factor the offensive line of any team is for a running back's success. Every back in the league can be successful when there are holes to run through, and I am not taking away from any runner's specific skill set in saying that. Ask any football coach, and they will tell you that they're usually more concerned with blocking (and tackling) than they are with how hard their backs run or how elusive their backs can be.

In this piece, I'm going to highlight some offensive lines that could be worse this coming season, or just continue to be below-average units, which affects how I view the starting running backs on their teams. Let's get back in the trenches, shall we?

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

• Jacobs' ADP: 34
• 2025 Rushing Offense DVOA Rank: 18
• 2025 Adjusted Line Yards Rank: 13

Jacobs is coming off an underwhelming 2025 season in which he failed to hit the 1,000-yard mark despite carrying the ball 234 times, and he missed just two games with injury. His 62 yards per game was a big drop-off from the 78 yards per contest that he averaged in 2024, his first season with the Packers.

For a team that likes to run the football as much as Green Bay does, they weren't very efficient in the run game as Jacobs finished with a 4.0-yard-per-carry average and the team rushed for just 4.1 YPC on the season, which ranked 24th in the NFL.

Whether Jacobs is losing a step or not is debatable, but what is more concerning to me is that the Packers' offensive line finished with the 22nd-rated run blocking grade and was a bottom-half team in overall rushing offense (DVOA) at 18th.

This unit lost Rasheed Walker to Carolina in free agency and is plugging in a new starter at left tackle, Jordan Morgan, who played guard as a part-time starter. Morgan is a better pass-blocker than run blocker, and doesn't represent much of an upgrade over Walker.

Meanwhile, both projected starting guards graded out very poorly as run blockers last season. Anthony Belton, a converted tackle, had one of the worst run-blocking grades of any guard last season as a part-time starter and is backed up by rookie Jager Burton, who could eventually overtake him if he starts slow. Aaron Banks wasn't very good at left guard last season either, with just a 56.3 run-blocking grade.

Sean Rhyan was fine (19th among centers) as a run-blocker, and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele is the lone starter who had an above-average grade last year.

When building out my graphics, I didn't include tight ends or fullbacks in the projected grade as every team utilizes them differently and it's pretty tough to account for them accurately with how many different formations teams use to run the football. But for comparison's sake, the average 5-man starting unit last year was at a 64.5 run-blocking grade. So even with a modest potential upgrade at left tackle if Morgan pans out, this still projects to be a below-average unit.

I'd rather invest in Jordan Love and some of his pass catchers than Jacobs this season. I think we see the Packers throw the ball more often, and I think they'd be wise to do that!

D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears

• Swift's ADP: 47
• 2025 Rushing Offense DVOA Rank: 3
• 2025 Adjusted Line Yards Rank: 3

We stay in the NFC North for my next fade, and this one is going to ruffle some feathers for sure. The Bears were an elite rushing offense last year, finishing third in both rushing offense (DVOA) and adjusted line yards. They also finished third in rushing yards per game (142.3) behind only Baltimore and Buffalo and fifth in YPC (4.7).

Ben Johnson brought his highly effective system from Detroit and implemented it rather seamlessly, allowing Swift to record career highs in rushing yards (1087) and touchdowns (9), while rookie Kyle Monangai added 783 yards of his own. The dynamic duo were unstoppable at times and helped this offense move the chains consistently, taking a lot of pressure off Caleb Williams in the passing game.

Their overall run-blocking grade of 75.3 (PFF) was good for fifth best in the league. However, there are two major holes in that unit from last year that will have to be filled this season.

Rookie Ozzy Trapilo, a towering six-foot-eight behemoth of a man, ruptured the patella tendon in his left knee in the playoffs and is not likely to return until late in the season. Right now, the Bears have an open competition at left tackle between Braxton Jones and free agent acquisition Jedrick Wills Jr. Jones played only sparingly last season and rated poorly as a run-blocker, while Wills Jr. missed the 2025 season with an injury and has started only 12 games since the 2022 season.

Trapilo drew high marks (for a rookie) for his blocking last year, rating 70.3 in pass blocking and 68.6 as a run blocker. I am not sure any of his potential replacements are up to the challenge of replacing him, and it could be a pretty sizeable downgrade at an incredibly important position.

Speaking of important positions, there may not be a more important spot on the offensive line when it comes to the running game than center. While veteran Garrett Bradbury, who comes over from New England, should be reliable in pass protection (64.1), he rated as one of the worst run-blocking centers in the league (55.9).

The Bears lost their All-Pro starting center Drew Dalman, who retired after only one season with Chicago after coming over from Atlanta in the 2024 offseason. Dalman rated as the seventh-best run-blocking center (74) in the NFL, so replacing him is going to be a tall task for Bradbury.

Listen, I am not saying that Chicago will fail to run the ball well at all this year, but they could definitely struggle in tougher matchups. They have one of the toughest schedules in the league this year, so they'll be tested quite often. They'll face Minnesota's stout defensive front twice, the top-rated Seattle run defense, a fourth-rated Jags unit, an improved New Orleans team (ranked 8th vs. the run), and Philadelphia.

With Swift and Monangai already splitting touches, which lowers their overall ceiling, I have a hard time investing in either of them if we think Chicago is going to be less effective running the football this year. I'd take the same approach here with Bears' skill guys and focus on Caleb Williams, Colston Loveland, and Luther Burden Jr. instead of counting on the running game to be the strength of this offense, especially if the Bears have fewer favorable game scripts for the running game in 2026.

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers

• Hubbard's ADP: 74
• 2025 Rushing Offense DVOA Rank: 17
• 2025 Adjusted Line Yards Rank: 8

I promise this has nothing to do with the steady drumbeat that you hear from other fantasy analysts for Jonathon Brooks. Okay, it might have a little bit to do with the competition for touches, but it mainly has to do with the current offensive line situation in Carolina to start the season.

You could argue that the Carolina backs underperformed a bit last year when you consider how well their offensive line graded out. The big men up front ranked eighth in adjusted line yards and had the fourth-best run-blocking grade per PFF.

Yet, Hubbard managed only 3.8 YPC, and Rico Dowdle, who replaced him as the starter midseason, faded down the stretch, averaging just 46.6 yards per game from Week 10 on. He had three really big games (206 yards vs. Miami, 183 yards vs. Dallas, and 130 yards vs. Green Bay) that buoyed his stats.

The entire offensive unit ranked just 25th in overall DVOA offense and 27th in points per game (19.0). I'd love to think that Bryce Young and company take another step forward this year, but I am not convinced that he does or that Carolina had many meaningful additions to this lackluster offense.

Let's talk about this offensive line already. They made a modest upgrade at the center position, bringing in Luke Fortner from New Orleans to replace Cade Mays. Robert Hunt started only three games last season before his season ended, but didn't rate very well in the run game. He's backed up by Brady Christensen, who is coming off an Achilles injury of his own.

The issue here is really at both tackle positions. Left tackle will likely be manned by Rasheed Walker, who comes over from Green Bay, as Ikem Ekwonu is set to miss the majority of the regular season recovering from a patellar tendon injury to his right knee that he suffered in the playoff loss to the Rams. Walker graded out at 53.7 as a run blocker, while Ekwonu had a solid 70.4 grade.

An even bigger issue is the recent development with right tackle Taylor Moton. He's been on the shelf since June with a blood clot in his lung and is expected to miss at least the start of the season. That's a tricky situation, and there's no timetable for his return as it depends on how soon he can stop taking blood thinners and resume practicing.

Right now, rookie Monroe Freeling is set to start in his absence, but graded out rather poorly as a run blocker in his senior season at Georgia. His 61.7 PFF grade at the college level is a far cry from the 80.4 grade that Moton posted against NFL competition last year.

With four new starters on this unit to start this season, I'm pretty leery about the Carolina run game. Especially when you consider that they're missing both starting tackles, and the outside run game was where Hubbard was at his best, averaging 4.5 YPC off left tackle and 4.6 YPC off right tackle. He was under 3.8 YPC on all other carries between the tackles.

Dowdle was his most productive running outside, too, going 29-241 on outside runs to the right and 36-168-2 on outside runs to the left (per PFF).

Both Hubbard and Brooks may seem like values at their ADP, but a timeshare on a team that could run the ball even less effectively this season is something I think I want to avoid.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders

• JCM's ADP: 115
• 2025 Rushing Offense DVOA Rank: 23
• 2025 Adjusted Line Yards Rank: 18

It's happening again! The fantasy football touts all convened in the offseason and decided to steam up JCM this preseason. Everyone's favorite seventh-round draft pick is coming off a season where he split time as the starting running back with the likes of Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jeremy McNichols, finishing as RB38 in per-game scoring in half-PPR leagues.

It's not that I don't think he's a decent back, or that I think that Rachaad White will take over the RB1 job entirely. It's really just a question of "Do we really think that the Commanders will run the ball successfully this year?"

Washington ranked 24th as a team in run blocking, and 23rd in DVOA rushing offense. They lost starting center Tyler Biadasz to free agency (Chargers) and will attempt to replace him with Nick Allegretti, who graded out as one of the worst run blockers at any position last year.

Even worse than Allegretti was left guard Chris Paul, whose 38.2 rating was the worst grade of any guard who logged at least 500 snaps last year. This group could be worse than last year, when they were already a bottom-third run-blocking unit.

If the Commanders do struggle to run the football, then I'd prefer the running back who is in line to get more work as a receiver.

Despite the reports that JCM is "looking good as a receiver," I'm much more inclined to trust the back who has been an excellent receiver out of the backfield during his career, Rachaad White, to get the majority of passing-down snaps.

JCM's production was propped up by eight touchdown runs, but Jayden Daniels only played in two of the games in which Croskey-Merritt scored and remains a threat to steal touchdowns as a runner.

There's always the argument that he's worth the risk at his late-round ADP, but let's just admit that he's no sure thing, and I'm willing to bet that White finishes ahead of him when the dust settles in January.

Other Below-Average Offensive Lines To Avoid

New York Jets (Breece Hall)

So my crude projections here actually have the Jets as slightly better this season. But remember that a rating of 62.1 is still below the league average of 64.5, and the only position where they got better was at left guard, where Dylan Parham represents a mild upgrade over John Simpson, who started there last year.

That Jets unit last season ranked 28th in adjusted line yards and 27th in DVOA rushing offense. I don't really view Geno Smith as much of an upgrade for this offense, and I am actively avoiding running backs on bad teams. I know Breece Hall can still get it done as a pass-catcher, but I'd simply rather have a back with a better team context surrounding them at that ADP - someone like Kyren Williams or Javonte Williams.

Cleveland Browns (Quinshon Judkins)

How about a team with five potential new starters in 2026? The Browns struggled to run the football last year, finishing 31st in DVOA rushing offense, and the line shoulders plenty of that blame, ranking 31st in adjusted line yards. They completely re-tooled their offensive line this season, bringing in three players in free agency and drafting Spencer Fano with the 9th overall pick.

I think Fano is an obvious upgrade, but I have my doubts about the rest of this group, including right guard Teven Jenkins, whose grade is based on a small sample size as he only started four games late in the season when injuries forced the Browns to turn to him to fill in.

The Browns are simply not an offense that I want to invest in, regardless of who is their quarterback this season.

Quinshon Judkins averaged a measly 3.6 YPC last year and faced the highest rate of "stacked boxes" (eight or more defenders in the box) at 45.2%. I think teams will load up to stop the Browns' run game against this year until they develop a passing attack that will force defenses to play them honestly. And you can't ignore Judkins' lack of passing game involvement when the Browns could be playing catch-up in negative game scripts.

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