MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/18/2025)

September 18, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/18/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including George Springer, Michael Busch, Giancarlo Stanton, and Andrew Vaughn.

We have a surprisingly large slate of games this Thursday, featuring 10 MLB games. I have found some great spots on today’s set of games to win us some money on some home run bets. We will focus on park factor, weather, and great matchups to try to hit some longer odds bets and build a bigger bankroll heading into the weekend.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, September 18, 2025. Odds for each pick are from Fanduel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/18/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, September 18:

• George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays
• Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs
• Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
• Andrew Vaughn, Milwaukee Brewers

George Springer OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+388 DraftKings)

The Blue Jays will play a day game at George M. Steinbrenner Field today, taking advantage of a warm day in Tampa. There is good hitting weather today in a stadium that is susceptible to the long ball.

Shane Baz will be squaring off against the Blue Jays, and he will be our target in this spot. Baz has allowed 25 home runs this season. He has allowed a 2.1 HR/9 and a 12.6% Brl at home. Righties have hit 16 home runs off him as well as a .464 SLG, .213 ISO, 15.2% Brl, and a 45.1% Hard Hit.

George Springer is always a favorite target of mine when he faces a reverse split righty, especially in a hitters' paradise. Springer has 29 home runs this season and is slashing .323/.406/.569 against right-hand pitching. He has a .537 SLG and two home runs over his last ten days.

George Springer LEADS ALL of @MLB in AVG, OPS and runs scored in the second half! pic.twitter.com/bajVg4WJCv

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) September 17, 2025

Baz has allowed 10 of his 16 home runs against two pitches to right-handed hitters this season, which are his four-seam and slider. Springer has a .657 SLG, .352 ISO, and 10 home runs off the four-seam and a .492 SLG, .200 ISO, and three home runs off the slider.

I love this spot for Springer to cash us our first home run bet of the day.

Michael Busch OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+244 DraftKings)

The Reds will host the Cubs in their first game of their series this weekend at Great American Ball Park. The Reds Park is one of the shortest porches in the big leagues and is always a great venue to target for home runs.

Hunter Greene will toe the rubber for the Reds, and although he is an elite arm, he struggles with the long ball. Greene has allowed a 2.00 HR/9, 50.8% FB, and a 39.7% Hard Hit over the last thirty days. Those numbers increase to a 2.89 HR/9, 52.9% FB, and a 47.1% Hard Hit over his previous two starts.

Lefties have hit nine home runs off Greene in 2025 and have a .402 SLG, .213 ISO, 15.9% Brl, and a 57.% Hard Hit. Greene has allowed seven home runs to lefties off his high velocity fastball and his slider.

Michael Busch leads the Cubs with 26 home runs off right-hand pitching in 2025. He is slashing .269/.348/.526 with a 19.5% Brl and a 47.5% Hard Hit against the split this season. He is on fire at the moment with a .647 SLG and three home runs over the last ten days.

Busch hits the mix of Greene extremely well. He has a .607 SLG and a .314 ISO  against the four-seamer as well as a .469 SLG and a .245 ISO against the slider. He hits a fastball 98-101 to a .532 wOBA and a .700 ISO, which is very important when targeting Greene.

All signs point to Busch getting one over the right field wall tonight against Greene.

Giancarlo Stanton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+327 DraftKings)

The Bronx Bombers will head to Camden Yards for their first game in a divisional set with the Orioles. Two southpaws in Max Fried and Cade Povich will square off, and when the Yankees face a lefty, you all know what to do.

We attack them with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and today is no different. Povich has allowed a 1.50 HR/9, 40.3% FB, and a 34.7% Hard Hit this season. Over the last thirty days, he has allowed a 2.21 HR/9, 36.1% FB, and a 41.9% Hard Hit.

Right-handed bats have been a nightmare for Povich. Righties have hit 13 home runs this season with a .449 SLG, .177 ISO, 13.6% Brl, and a 47.8% Hard Hit.

When examining pitch mix, his four-seam fastball and curveball have yielded nine home runs against them. These  are the two pitches we want our hitters to profile well against.

Stanton has 20 home runs on the season. He is slashing .259/.375/.463 with a .838 OPS against southpaws. There are two pitches Stanton dominates against left-handed pitching which happen to be the two Povich throws the most. He has a .500 SLG and a .375 ISO against the four-seam and a .545 SLG and a .182 ISO against the curveball.

This is an excellent matchup for both Stanton and Judge, but we are going to take the discount and better odds in Stanton to hit a dinger.

Andrew Vaughn OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 FanDuel)

Andrew Vaughn will get the nod for our last home run bet of the night, and he is always a sure thing, at least it seems to be this season, to be live to leave the yard.

Vaughn squares off against Yusei Kikuchi, who is a walking home run. He has allowed 23 home runs this season, of which 22 have been to right-handed hitters. He has allowed a 40.9% FB and a 36.3% Hard Hit this season.

Right-handed hitters, as stated above, are going to be the way to get to Kikuchi. He has allowed a .455 SLG, .184 ISO, 12.3% Brl, and a 43.3% Hard Hit against righties in 2025.

There are two pitches in his arsenal against righties that we are looking to attack. They are his four seamer and his slider. He has allowed nine home runs on each pitch. His four-seamer has a .544 SLG and a .231 ISO against it. His slider has a .500 SLG and a .229 ISO against it.

Andrew Vaughn has been a menace since joining the Brewers. He has 14 home runs this season and has a .410 SLG. He is swinging the bat well, slashing .458/.500/.583 over the last ten days. He does not have a home run during that span, but he is slugging way too well at the moment for one not to happen soon.

He hit the four seamer and slider from southpaws as mentioned above really well. He has a .486 SLG and a .114 ISO against the four-seam and a .500 SLG and a .188 ISO against the slider.

Vaughn against a southpaw was automatic money in the middle of the season, and he is heating up again. I love this bet to wrap up our card.

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