MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/1/2025)

September 1, 2025

Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/1/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Eugenio Suarez, Juan Soto, Rafael Devers, and Colson Montgomery.

Welcome Back, RotoBallers! We have a solid slate of games ahead of us on this first day of September. We have exactly a month to let Green Day know to wake up. Enough of the jokes, let's get on with this 13-game slate. The weather isn't providing us with much help today, unfortunately, as it doesn't look like we have any big winds blowing out to aid us in our home run search.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use these plays in a round robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, September 1, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbooks and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/1/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, September 1:

• Eugenio Suarez, Seattle Mariners
• Juan Soto, New York Mets
• Rafael Devers, San Francisco Giants
• Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox

Eugenio Suarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 DraftKings)

The wind is blowing in pretty heavily, but I can't pass up a chance to go against Shane Baz. Baz has been specifically bad at home this season. Giving up 18 of his 26 home runs at home, and of the 18, 11 of those have come against RHP! So who else to take than the righty killer in Eugenio Suarez.

Suarez has some crazy reverse splits this season. He has hit 31 of his 42 home runs off of RHP this season and has started to heat up with the Mariners after a slow start. He has four home runs in his last 20 ABs against RHP. He has posted an ISO of .314 and a SLG of .574 this season off righties as well, which are just some absurd numbers. His power numbers have been the highest of his career with a HardHit% of 48.7% and a Barrel% of 14.5%.

Like I said, the wind blowing in hurts us, but with Shane Baz having a Barrel% of 10.3% on the season and a HardHit% of 40%. It's too good an opportunity to pass up, especially at +350 odds!

Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings)

Charlie Morton, at the ripe age of 41, is still slinging the rock. Whether or not he should be is a conversation for another time. That being said, the lefties in the lineup find themselves in a good spot. Specifically, Juan Soto has dominated him in his career.

Soto has seen him 22 times, and in that time, he has seven walks, eight hits, and three of those were for home runs. He has an SLG of 1.214 against him. The sample size isn't large, but to have that much success against a pitcher who is continuing to decline makes for an intriguing play.

Juan Soto is the third Mets player ever to have a season with 35+ home runs and 25+ stolen bases, joining Howard Johnson and Darryl Strawberry 👏 pic.twitter.com/7zrc4reh3a

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) August 31, 2025

Morton has given up 20 home runs this season, nine to lefties, which has resulted in a HR/9 of 1.2. He has a decent HardHit% of 43.2% but a low Barrel% of 7.7%. We will be relying on Soto's success and power here against Morton.

Soto has hit 27 of his 35 home runs off righties this season, which has resulted in a SLG of .562 and a .295 ISO. Soto has some insane power numbers as well, with a HardHit% of 56% which is second-highest of his career, and an 18% Barrel%. Everything lines up well here for a bomb from Soto. We aren't getting wonderful odds, but I'll still take them with all the data to back it up.

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Rafael Devers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+250 FanDuel)

Wouldn't be a home run article without some Coors Field, right?! I loved being able to play Chase Dollander away from home because he has shown how good a pitcher he can be when he isn't at Coors Field. Unfortunately for him, we are back at Coors, so let's dive into some of his home stats. At home, he has given up 10 home runs and 49 runs. The 9.88 ERA at home just goes to show how much of an impact Coors Field can have.

The Lefties at home have really had their way with him, as seven of those 10 home runs have come from LHH. They have an SLG of .621 and a .431 wOBA when facing him at Coors Field. I didn't want to go with Rafael Devers, but he is the clear choice as the main power lefty on the roster. You could take a shot on Dominic Smith at better odds, but he definitely hasn't shown the power that I would like to see out of him.

Devers has hit 19 of his 27 home runs this season off righty pitchers, and he matches up extremely well against Dollander, who loves to throw his four-seamer. It so happens that 8 of his 19 home runs this season have come off the four-seamer as well, where he has an XSLG of .607. Devers is sporting a .505 SLG and a .238 ISO, along with a HardHit% of 56.8% and a Barrel% of 15.6%!

The odds are fairly low, but I still think we get solid value with him going against Dollander. Given the venue of Coors Field, and as of right now, we aren't experiencing any crazy winds. Devers has three home runs in his last five games, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him go back-to-back with a home run here in Denver. Devers came through for Dan last night. Let's hope he can come through for me in this spot!

Colson Montgomery OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+ DraftKings)

Here comes my favorite play of the day to cap it all off. Bailey Ober is a great pitcher to pick home runs off of. I wish we had a better team going against him, but the White Sox will have to do. Lucky for us, we have a power-hitting rookie in Colson Montgomery, who has hit righties extremely well this season. 11 of his 14 home runs have come off of RHP this season, and he has some insane splits with a .578 SLG and a .336 ISO.

Colson Montgomery is slugging .828 with 5 home runs in his last 7 games 🔥
pic.twitter.com/7tZS7g5ruA

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) August 31, 2025

As for HardHit%, he is pushing a 43.4% this season with a Barrel% of 13.3%. These numbers line up well against Ober, who has the second-highest Barrel% on the slate at 11.1% and a 40.1% HardHit% this season. Against lefties alone, Ober has given up a 2.43 HR/9 this season.

He is also pushing a 50.8% FB%, which means, all it takes is some power to these fly balls to get them to go out. Colson Montgomery has an average exit velocity of 88.4 mph. That number has increased on average by nearly five mph across his last five games. He is getting a great opportunity to go yard in this one.

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