12 Breakout Hitters For Fantasy Baseball Drafts

February 28, 2025

Michael Florio's 2025 fantasy baseball hitter breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued hitters and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.

The word “breakout” is a polarizing one in fantasy baseball. To some, it is a player that will simply outlive the value you have to pay to draft a player. To others, it is a player who is set to take a big step and be going significantly earlier in fantasy drafts next season. 

I fall into that second bucket and view breakouts as players that have league-winning upside. I wrote this article last year featuring players such as Elly De La Cruz, Seiya Suzuki, Triston Casas, and Oneil Cruz. That article helped me get nominated for FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year! 

And I am back for another go this year. I will focus on a number of players with varying ADP. Some you need to pay up for a bit more cause they appear close to breaking out, and others are a little more under the radar, and you can get later in your drafts. 

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Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Kansas City Royals 

I was buying Vinnie Pasquantino last season as a sleeper and loved what I saw. Not only does Pasquantino limit strikeouts, which gives him a boost in points leagues, but he also provides pop. He finished with 19 homers last year, but from May on, he really flashed. He hit .276/.316/.461 with 15 homers, 24 doubles, and a 46 percent hard hit rate in that span.

Those numbers remained consistent, but he especially caught fire in August, hitting seven home runs with a .505 slugging and .243 before injury cut his season short. 

Fun Fact: #Royals Vinnie Pasquantino was the only player in 2024 (min 100 AB) to have at least a 50% hard hit rate and 90% contact rate on pitches in the zone

Stat via @JonPgh MLB leaderboard pic.twitter.com/dIEreRTP4F

— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) January 3, 2025

Pasquantino’s ability to put the ball in play, paired with his pop, gives him a lot of upside. Plus, he will hit in the middle of the order giving him chances to drive in runs. You get this upside and barely have to draft him as a top-12 first baseman, if that.

Lawrence Butler, OF, Athletics 

If you checked out at the All-Star break, you missed a lot when it came to Lawrence Butler. In the second half, he slashed .300/.345/.553 with 13 homers and 12 stolen bases. Butler was in the top 20 among hitters in wOBA (.380) and ISO (.253). He reduced his strikeout rate by 10 percentage points in the second half compared to the first while hitting the ball harder.

He showed the ability to hit for average with some pop and good plate discipline in the minors, all while stealing plenty of bases. He will hit leadoff and is a lefty in a park with a short right-field porch. He should be able to contribute weekly, but if he can build off of his second half, he has the upside to alter your lineup. 

James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals

James Wood was an elite prospect who showed the ability to hit for average, get on base, hit for power, and steal bases in the minor leagues. In about a half of last year's season in the bigs, he hit .264 with a .354 OBP, with nine homers and 14 steals. Strikeouts were a concern, but he improved in that regard with seasoning in the minors, so perhaps he could do the same in the majors. The tools are elite, though.

Not only that, at just 22 years old he is still only getting better. He had a 52 percent hard-hit rate and 11 percent barrel despite seeing big league pitching for the first time last year. Having that crucial experience under his belt is huge, as there is always a learning curve when hitters make the jump.

Wood has the potential to be an early-round pick in drafts next year. The upside is sky-high, and I will bet on the former top prospect in drafts this year. 

Parker Meadows, OF, Detroit Tigers

Parker Meadows came up as a prospect with a lot of hype, and when you look at his minor-league stats, you see why. He stumbled out the gate in 2023 and in his first go around in 2024. He was then recalled in August and raked. From that point on, he slashed .296/.340/.500 with six homers, five steals, a .204 ISO, and .359 wOBA.

He is slated to hit leadoff for the Tigers so he should get plenty of chances to score runs. Meadows was awesome down the stretch, but that also happens to be when people tend to turn to football. That could lead to a breakout candidate being a little cheaper in drafts than he should be. 

Not seeing hardly enough Parker Meadows hype heading into the 2025 season and that absolutely needs to change pic.twitter.com/ZdtMQxor8H

— Calico Joe (@CalicoJoeMLB) January 28, 2025

Meadows is dealing with a nerve issue in his right arm that has shut him down early in Spring Training. He continues to work his way back and there is now hope that he will be ready for Opening Day. Even if not, the encouraging report could mean he only misses minimal time. An injury scare leads to a lower ADP, which continues to keep Meadows as a player to target.

Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays

Junior Caminero has generated a lot of hype with his strong minor league numbers, even if his MLB stints haven’t lived up to the hype yet. It is important to remember he is still just 21 years old and already has two MLB stints under his belt. Having seen MLB pitching and having a chance to adjust is huge for his upside this season, as young players are often a little slow out the gate as there is a big adjustment.

He’s flashed big power potential and the ability to hit for average. Plus, his ballpark could be a huge plus. The Rays will be playing outdoors in the Yankees spring training park, which features the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium. The ball could carry in the Florida heat in a park with very short dimensions. I am willing to roll the dice on a young player with a ton of talent in those conditions. 

Jordan Westburg, 2B/3B, Baltimore Orioles 

Jordan Westburg flashed big power numbers last year, hitting 18 homers in just 447 plate appearances. He sported a .216 ISO along with a 46 percent hard-hit rate and 11.8 percent barrel rate. His expected stats were all better than what he posted, as well. Westburg had shown the ability to mash for power in the minors.

The one concern with last year was he did not walk much, but for most of his minor league career he posted a walk rate of over 10 percent, so there is room for him to grow. He also has the speed to steal double-digit bases. He could realistically give you 20 homers and 10 steals with a solid average and counting stats hitting in a good Orioles lineup. 

Kerry Carpenter, OF/DH, Detroit Tigers

Kerry Carpenter was already a safe floor player for fantasy purposes. He took another step forward, though, last year and was really set to break out in a huge way. In just 296 plate appearances he hit 18 homers, he hit 20 in 459 plate appearances the year prior. He slashed .284/.345/.587 with a .303 ISO, .390 wOBA, 45 percent hard hit, and 17 percent barrel rate - all of which were career bests.

Amongst players with 100 plate appearances, he ranked fourth in ISO and 14th in wOBA. Simply put, Carpenter was mashing last season. He is set to hit in the middle of the Tigers order and if he stays healthy, a career year is in store. 

Brandon Lowe, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays

Brandon Lowe has topped 20 homers despite missing time in two straight seasons. The last time we saw him play a full season's worth of games, he hit 39 homers. I do not need to convince you that Lowe is good or has a ton of power, as we have seen it before. He is probably the best power bat at the middle infield positions.

But imagine how good he would be if the lefty played in Yankee Stadium. Well, he pretty much gets to this year, but even better conditions since it will be outdoors in Florida. The ball could fly off the bat in those conditions. You already get the injury discount baked into his ADP. The upside is sky-high. You can make a similar case for his teammate, Josh Lowe. 

Jackson Holliday, 2B, Baltimore Orioles

It is no secret that Jackson Holliday struggled in his highly anticipated MLB debut last year. He was his usual productive self in the minors. We have seen top prospects come up and falter before, just to break out when they get another chance. There is usually a learning curve in adjusting to MLB pitching. I am banking on that being the case with Holliday.

He is still the elite prospect he was last year, just with some seasoning under his belt. And on top of that, he is going even cheaper than last year. Yeah, that is enough for me to roll the dice on the prospect who was the most hyped at this time last year. 

Francisco Alvarez, C, New York Mets

Speaking of former top prospects who have not yet panned out, there’s Fransisco Alvarez. The former No. 1 prospect faltered last season, hitting just nine homers. The young backstop missed time due to injury and has been vocal that he was simply trying to force things too much and it led to him wrecking his mental approach.

He has talked about having a much more free approach heading into 2025. Plus, he did hit 25 homers in 2023. At just 23 years old, with an everyday job, MLB success already under his belt, and, best of all, a cheaper ADP than last year, Alvarez brings a similar breakout upside, just at a reduced cost. 

Francisco Alvarez always wants to improve.

At the recommendation of J.D. Martinez, Alvarez worked over the offseason at a facility in Atlanta (basically living there), where he revamped his swing: https://t.co/0ZHMtBz517

— Will Sammon (@WillSammon) February 13, 2025

Alvarez is out 6-8 weeks with a broken hamate bone. It is frustrating that the young catcher continues to be sidelined, but the upside when he is on the field is there. His ADP will certainly fall a number of rounds now. While you cannot draft him as your top catcher, he remains an option in two-catcher leagues or ones with an IL spot.

Pavin Smith, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Pavin Smith has been around the block a bit and has yet to really make himself fantasy-relevant. Perhaps this is the post-hype sleeper of all post-hype sleepers because I see a lot to like here. Smith hit nine homers with a .270/.348/.547 slash line in just 158 plate appearances. His .277 ISO was the seventh highest, while his .395 xwOBA was 10th among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances.

Smith, who has always done a good job of drawing walks, posted a career-high OBP last season. He also posted career bests with a 15 percent barrel and 44 percent hard-hit rate. Perhaps it was just a small sample size, but Smith is so cheap in drafts I am willing to throw a dart at him especially since he could be the main DH for the DBacks. 

Players with: (Min 100 PA)
- barrel% >= 10%
- chase% <= 25%
- SwStr% <= 10%

AKA good quality of contact, limited chasing outside the zone, and limiting swing and miss on strikes

- Juan Soto
- Kyle Tucker
- Mike Trout
- Seiya Suzuki
- Pavin Smith
- Trent Grisham pic.twitter.com/FCpcxXklkh

— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) January 26, 2025

Jhonkensy Noel, OF, Cleveland Guardians

The world was introduced to Jhonkensky Noel in a big way in the MLB playoffs. He hit 13 homers in just 198 plate appearances, sporting a .268 ISO. Noel is a massive human being who has raw power with the best of them.

He has poor plate discipline, which makes him better in Roto formats than points, but that was something he was better at in the minors, so he could still improve. I am willing to throw a dart on his power potential in the later rounds of drafts.

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