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Michael Florio's 2024 fantasy baseball hitter breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued hitters and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.
Just saying the word “breakout” is enough to make the hair on the back of fantasy players' necks stand up. Every fantasy player has one thing in common. They want to win. Nothing helps a player's odds of winning more than finding a breakout player or two.
Everyone has their own definition of a breakout. For me, a fantasy breakout is a player that will not only exceed their draft day cost, but will become one of the better players in fantasy. This is a player that next year will be going significantly earlier, likely in the first handful of rounds.
Finding these breakout players in the middle to later rounds of drafts can completely transform your team. It can elevate you from a middle of the pack team to a legit contender. Not all of these players will break out, but it is always good to have targets in mind!
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Royce Lewis, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Royce Lewis is a popular breakout candidate and it is easy to see why. Injuries may have delayed the former top prospect's path to the bigs, but they certainly did not zap him of his abilities. In just 58 games last year, Lewis hit 15 home runs, scored 36 runs, drove in 52, and stole six bags. He hit .309 with a .372 OBP and .548 slugging percent. Do you know what we call that in fantasy baseball land? A five category contributor. The more you dive under the hood, the more there is to like.
He posted a .240 ISO and a 12 percent barrel rate per FanGraphs, with a 16.2 launch angle. That means he hits the ball hard and lifts it, which is exactly what you want to see a young powerful hitter do. He also showed the ability to spray the ball to all fields, all while showing strong plate discipline and the ability to hit all pitches.
Lewis will get hyped up this draft season and for good reason. Not only can he be this year's biggest breakout hitter, if he stays healthy and things break right, we could be talking about an All-Star or maybe even an MVP dark horse.
VOLUME UP
Hear the sweet, sweet sound of the ball smashing off Royce Lewis' bat in Fort Myers today.Royce is healthy, look out all opposing pitchers.#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/IaYmVSl4Bm
— Alec Ausmus (@A_TwiceKSTP) February 21, 2024
Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox
Triston Casas potentially broke out last year when he hit 24 home runs with a .263 average and .367 OBP as a 23-year-old rookie. However, he can continue to reach new heights as he was significantly better in the second half. He hit .317, with 15 homers, a .300 ISO, and .417 OBP, all while raising his walk rate and lowering his strikeout rate in the second half.
As he felt more comfortable, the results came, and that is significant when talking about a 23-year-old in his first full MLB season. Casas barreled the ball up well last year, with a rate of 13 percent. He makes hard contact and lifts the ball well. He draws walks and gets on base at a high clip. That means he is even more valuable in points or OBP leagues. There is a lot to like here with Casas.
Triston Casas 2024 projections:
.268/.371/.523 | 31 HR | 3 SB | .894 OPS
The kid does indeed “have it.”
Casas may legit already be the face of the franchise. Hits for power, takes walks, and has made tremendous strides since last year. Bigtime leader.pic.twitter.com/Q9iDrMvmNj
— G.G. (@ggeiss_mlb) February 22, 2024
Nolan Jones, 3B, Colorado Rockies
Nolan Jones hit .297 with a 3.89 OBP, 20 homers, 20 steals, 60 runs, and 62 RBI in his first full MLB season. Jones showed that rare power-speed combo that roto players love. He also gets on base and hits lots of doubles, which helps maintain his value in points leagues. It is worth pointing out that 15 of those homers and steals each came in the second half.
The strikeout rate decreased, while the walks ticked up, and his ISO jumped to .272 in the second half. Second-half splits can be overrated, but when talking about a young player in their first full season -- it shows signs of growth and adjusting to the big leagues. Plus, he barreled the ball 16 percent of the time. In Coors Field, that should lead to a lot of homers. Jones brings a lot of promise in the best ballpark a hitter can play in.
Elly De La Cruz, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees
Elly De La Cruz and Anthony Volpe were two I wanted to include together because they are similar players to me. Both are extremely toolsy players that have power and speed at the shortstop position. But both struggled to hit for average or OBP and had huge strikeout issues.
Last year, both swung at 32 percent of pitches out of the zone and both had a swinging strike rate over 12 percent. However, each will be 22 years old on Opening Day (Volpe turns 23 later in April) and have a year of seasoning under their belt where they did a lot of very impressive things. The upside is sky-high for both all at a premium position. Understand the floor is risky, but the ceiling is very high with both of these young players.
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Oneil Cruz only played nine games before injuries cut his season short last year. It is an extremely small sample size, but it is worth noting that in his 40 plate appearances, he cut down on strikeouts, raised his walk rate, and got his OBP up to .375. Perhaps it was just a small sample blip, but perhaps it was a sign of improved plate discipline in his second season.
It is worth mentioning that he was swinging at more pitches in the zone and making more contact. That is scary because Cruz is a shortstop in a linebacker's body. ATC has him projected for 23 homers and 22 steals with a .247 average this year -- but it is possible he clears all of those numbers. Get excited for Cruz.
#Pirates insider @JMackeyPG sees star potential in Oneil Cruz this season.
Listen: https://t.co/D3St3a9DRX pic.twitter.com/bbicEMbYh4
— 93.7 The Fan (@937theFan) February 23, 2024
Bo Naylor, C, Cleveland Guardians
Bo Naylor is a 24-year-old catcher who hit 11 home runs and stole five bases. He showed good plate discipline with a 23 percent strikeout and 13 percent walk rate in his first real taste of big league baseball last year. He did all of that in just 230 plate appearances. I am buying into what we saw because it lines up with the production Naylor put up throughout the minor leagues.
As a young catcher, projection systems are never going to expect a ton offensively out of him. Naylor can easily hit 15 home runs and add double-digit steals while drawing walks and getting on base at a nice clip. That is a game-changer type of catcher if he hits.
Seiya Suzuki, OF, Chicago Cubs
Seiya Suzuki took a big step forward in his second year in the bigs. He improved upon his home runs, runs, RBI, batting average, OBP, wOBA, slugging percent, ISO, and hard-hit rate. He also cut down the strikeouts and improved his plate discipline.
ATC believes in the growth, as they project him for even more in all four counting stat departments when compared to his stats in 2023. Do not forget that Suzuki was one of the top hitters in Japan for years before coming to America. Suzuki is already a very solid piece at his draft cost, but if he can take another step forward, he will be a true difference-maker in fantasy baseball.
Jordan Walker, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Walker hit .276, with a .342 OBP, 16 homers, 51 runs, 51 RBI, and seven stolen bases in just 465 plate appearances as a 21-year-old rookie. Walker showed he has the power-speed combination throughout the minors, but seeing the plate discipline carry over right away is a huge plus.
Projections always play it safe with young players, but most are expecting around the same numbers as last year. I would expect an increase for a former top prospect, in a good lineup, with lots of veterans to show him the ropes. Walker, like many of the young players on this list, is very easy to get excited about in fantasy baseball.
Logan O'Hoppe, C, Los Angeles Angels
Logan O’Hoppe got hurt early and then did not return until August. So if you are one of those fantasy baseball players that checks out around fantasy football time, you may have missed the Angels catcher. In just 199 plate appearances, he hit 14 homers.
The plate discipline needs some work, but ATC projects him for 22 homers, 55 runs, 63 RBI, and a .253 average. That would make him a top-12 catcher in fantasy baseball and there is room for the 24-year-old to grow. I was excited to have him on teams last year, and I will certainly be targeting him in drafts.
Almost an hour after practice, @logan_ohoppe and Wash are out here getting in extra work! pic.twitter.com/YYxcnift1a
— HaloDiehards (@halo_diehards) February 19, 2024
Davis Schneider, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
Davis Schneider debuted last year and hit .276 with a .404 OBP and eight homers in just 141 plate appearances. When you dive under the hood, there is a lot to like. He had a .328 ISO, .424 wOBA, and his 17.8 percent barrel rate was the 10th best in baseball.
He strikes out at a high rate, but makes up for it by walking a ton. The only concern is playing time, as the Blue Jays have a number of options, but Schneider will not be expensive in drafts. He is an upside shot worth taking.
Nelson Velazquez, OF, Kansas City Royals
Nelson Velazquez hit 17 home runs in just 179 plate appearances. That means he hit a home run nearly once every 10 times he stepped to the plate. If that makes you think of Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge, you are not crazy.
Ohtani was the only batter with a higher ISO than Velazquez (.352). Judge was the only one with a higher barrel rate (21.4 percent). That is elite company. Yet, ATC is the only projection with him over 20 homers (22). He will not cost you a ton and he should get plenty of chances with the Royals not being very competitive. The power alone is worth taking a shot at.
Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
Nolan Schanuel debuted last year and hit just one home run with no steals in 132 plate appearances. He has never shown much power or speed in his limited minor league career. This one is diving a little deep and I get that.
Schanuel in the majors and minors showed strong plate discipline. Last year in the bigs, he was one of just a handful of hitters with a higher walk rate than strikeouts (15.2 percent walk rate, 14.4 percent strikeout). He is purely a points-league specialist until he shows otherwise. If you find yourself in need of a first baseman in the later rounds of points leagues, here is a nice sleeper for you.
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