Fantasy Baseball Draft Values: Later-Round Hitters to Target in Draft and Hold Leagues (2025)

February 21, 2025

Corbin's fantasy baseball draft sleepers, later-round hitters to target in draft-and-hold leagues for 2025. These batters are fantasy baseball ADP value picks.

We love the word sleeper in the fantasy world, especially when we can identify ones in the later rounds. Typically, draft-and-hold leagues tend to be 12 to 15 rounds, so in this article we're looking at hitters around pick 300 and beyond. Below we identify later-round hitters to target by looking at skills, projections, and playing time to find potential values.

We tend to have difficulties finding later-round hitters besides outfielders and platoon bats. That suggests we must prioritize certain positions earlier in drafts by using National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) Average Draft Positions (ADP) as a guide to working backward. These five hitters look like potential value options in the later rounds, as playing time matters for draft-and-hold contests.

Now, let's dive in for more below!

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Jordan Walker, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

NFBC ADP Since January 1: 291

When a former top prospect struggles and sees a dip in their ADP, it presents a buying opportunity. Jordan Walker fits that mold after 16 home runs, seven stolen bases, and a .276 batting average across 465 plate appearances in his rookie season. However, Walker's outcomes plummeted in 2024 with five home runs, one stolen base, and a .201 batting average.

Walker was sent down to the minor leagues twice in 2024, and there appear to be potential opportunities for him in the Cardinals' lineup. The argument against Walker involves his xBA (.248) being nearly 30 points lower than his actual BA in 2023. That's mainly due to his underwhelming contact rates and power metrics.

One way to find potential sleepers in the power department involves examining the Exit Velocity 50 or EV50 leaderboards. EV50 is the average of the hardest 50 percent of a player's batted balls, giving us a better potentially more reliable metric than average exit velocity. In 2023 as a rookie, Walker boasted an EV50 of 101.9 mph near Ryan McMahon, Shea Langeliers, Nolan Gorman, and Luis Robert Jr. among batters with 250 batted ball events.

The visual below shows the hitters with an Exit Velocity 50 or EV50 of at least 100 mph (min. 250 batted ball events).

The challenge seems to be consistency because Walker possesses the tools to smash his ADP in 2025 but the plate discipline issues, stolen base opportunity lows, and struggles against fastballs have tempered expectations. Built like a linebacker, Walker's athleticism and speed can wow us, though his eight percent stolen base opportunity rate limits the ceiling.

Walker's wOBA against left-handed pitchers throwing fastballs remained the same with a .343 wOBA in 2024 compared to a .342 wOBA in 2023. Interestingly, Walker's batting averages against fastballs in 2024 declined by 80 points to .179.

We have a drastic difference for Walker against right-handed pitchers throwing fastballs. That's evident in Walker's .208 wOBA against fastballs from righties in 2024 down from a .378 wOBA in 2023.

The visual below shows Walker's fastball results by location in 2023 compared to 2024.

Part of the challenge with Walker's success against fastballs seems to be location. When opposing pitchers threw fastballs up in the zone or on the inside of the plate, Walker's results were nearly cut in half. Walker had a .228 wOBA in Zones 1-4 (up in the zone and inside of the plate, but not low and inside) during 2024 compared to a .533 wOBA in 2023.

As a hitter listed at 6-feet-6, Walker's sweet spot of the zone might be low and inside, with somewhat of a golf swing. Opposing teams likely have the data with the heat maps, and could attack him in the weak spots in 2025.

There have been reports of Walker making swing changes, to hit more line drives while not focusing on hitter home runs and elevating the ball. Take the discount in Walker's price because it's reasonable to expect 20 home runs and double-digit stolen bases, with a serviceable .250 to .260 batting average and more playing time. Target Walker once the draft hits pick 250 and beyond.

Christopher Morel, 2B/3B, Tampa Bay Rays

NFBC ADP Since January 1: 277

Christopher Morel struggled after joining the Rays in late July, with three home runs, one stolen base, a .191 batting average, and 59 wRC+ in 190 plate appearances. The power tools were typically in the high-end to near-elite range for Morel with the Cubs, with a 133 Expected Power Index (xPX) in 2023, dipping to 103 in 2024.

Morel's xPX expectedly dipped with the Rays, especially when we consider the home ballpark is typically more pitcher-friendly. Morel's challenges have been plate discipline, though he posted a career-best contact rate of 70 percent. He also lowered his chase rate to a career-low (25.3 percent), a few percentage points below his career average.

That should help boost his expected (and actual) batting average, especially considering the exit velocity metrics suggest more home runs. Morel uses a pull-heavy approach (46.5 percent) but arguably possesses high-end power regardless of pulling the ball. It's worth noting Morel's EV50 in 2023 dropped from 103.5 mph (No. 20) to 101.2 mph (No. 71) in 2024. That's still an above-average EV50 out of 252 qualified hitters.

Removing plate discipline, the visual below shows the hitters with a similar maximum exit velocity, EV50, and a six percent barrels per plate appearance rate or higher in 2024.

Morel flashed some stolen base potential, but the challenge about it continuing might be related to his conversion rates. Throughout Morel's career, he has a solid 13 percent stolen base opportunity rate, yet converted 60 percent of his chances. That's concerning because he may lose stolen base opportunities while the on-base skills are a question mark.

The Rays will play their home games at the Yankees' Spring Training facility, which has dimensions similar to Yankee Stadium. Tropicana Field ranked third-worst in Statcast Park Factors and middle of the pack (18th) in the three-year rolling Home Run Rolling Park Factors. Yankee Stadium ranks third in Home Run Park Factors and second-best for right-handed hitters compared to Tropicana Field at 14th.

Morel dealt with knee soreness, foot, and heel issues but never landed on the injured list last season. There should be a bounce-back season for Morel with the middle and infield flexibility, plus the temporary home park.

Joey Ortiz, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers

NFBC ADP Since January 1: 296

Joey Ortiz checks off the boxes of power and speed, as hitters to target later in drafts. Ortiz showed strong plate discipline skills, evidenced by a 92.7 percent zone contact rate. That should keep the xBA similar to his actual, though Ortiz's power has been below average, with a career 92 xPX.

Ortiz's issues surround his launch angle since he hits groundballs nearly 50 percent of the time. If hitters hit tons of groundballs, we want them to smash line drives and flyballs. However, Ortiz's 91.4 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives rank below average at 194th out of 252 qualified hitters.

He might benefit from pulling the ball more to tap into the pull-side power, but hitters with a strong hit tool like him tend to spray the ball all over the field. Ortiz's 99.4 mph EV50 (No. 150) gives us more hope for average-ish power metrics.

Ortiz played all over the infield, including shortstop, second base, and third as an athletic and good defender. With Willy Adames moving onto the Giants, it clears a path for Ortiz to play shortstop, potentially gaining dual eligibility at 3B/SS. Keep tabs on whether Ortiz continues to struggle to convert stolen base opportunities because that might lead to fewer green lights, as one of the worst on the Brewers last season, seen below.

With the defensive athleticism, comes stolen base potential. Ortiz had a 14 percent stolen base opportunity rate in 2024, though he struggled to convert them (64 percent) in the 511 plate appearance sample.

Target Ortiz once the draft inches past pick 250 because there's a path for regular playing time as the starting shortstop. The floor for Ortiz involves 12-15 home runs and 12-15 stolen bases with a quality batting average (.260 or so) supported by the strong hit tool

Jarred Kelenic, OF, Atlanta Braves

NFBC ADP Since January 1: 427

At this stage in the draft, we're mostly dealing with platoon options. That's the case with the post, post, post-hype sleeper in Jarred Kelenic. The Braves added Jurickson Profar and Bryan De La Cruz, but Kelenic has the chance to be the strong-side platoon option in right field. However, Kelenic's opportunities become muddier when Ronald Acuna Jr. returns.

Kelenic dealt with a wrist in early June, but never hit the injured list. Sometimes wrist injuries can negatively impact power, though Kelenic career bests in home runs (15) were supported by the xPX (129). However, we saw Kelenic struggle after June, post-wrist injury.

He increased his pull rate to just under 45 percent (44.9), reaching a career-high, possibly impacting the slight xPX gains. Kelenic struggles to make contact but doesn't tend to chase outside the zone. If Kelenic earns more playing time, he could project for 20-25 home runs at his peak.

Kelenic saw a decline in stolen base opportunities (nine percent) in 2024 compared to a career average of 15 percent. Thankfully, he slightly improved his ability to convert his stolen base opportunities into production.

Kelenic struggled to attack fastballs when thrown in the zone in 2024. That's evident in Kelenic having a .362 BA (.352 xBA) and .417 wOBA (.447 xwOBA) in fastballs in the heart of the zone in 2023. Unfortunately, Kelenic's results against fastballs in the heart of the zone plummeted to .238 BA (.296 xBA) and .305 wOBA (.359 xwOBA) in 2024, as seen below.

The expected BA and wOBA tell us there's possible regression for Kelenic against fastballs in the heart of the zone based on the contact quality. However, Kelenic's struggles against fastballs in the zone concern us. Let's speculate on the why.

The numbers regressed for Kelenic against fastballs higher in the zone, and on the inside of the plate. Opposing pitchers may attempt to continue attacking Kelenic in those areas, meaning he must adapt and adjust his approach.

When we're taking shots later in the draft, we want to make bets on players who possess power and speed. Kelenic fits that mold as a strong-side platoon option in one of the better (projected) lineups, making him a late-round hitter target in draft-and-hold leagues.

Chas McCormick, OF, Houston Astros

NFBC ADP Since January 1: 468

If the ADP market shows us anything, the options for non-platoon players have been lacking. We're one season removed from Chas McCormick's near 20/20 season, with 22 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a .273 batting average in 2023. McCormick dealt with injuries (hamstring and fractured hand), causing him to miss time in 2024.

Unsurprisingly, McCormick's xPX fell to a career low (90) in 2024 compared to a career xPX of 129. That suggests the injuries impacted McCormick's power and 2024 might be the outlier season. With Kyle Tucker moving to the Cubs, McCormick's path to playing seems clearer as one of their better outfield options.

McCormick struggles to make contact and uses an aggressive approach, evidenced by his zone and overall swing rates. Sometimes the aggressive swing rates in the zone don't align with making contact, as seen above. Thankfully, McCormick boasts above-average power skills, with optimal launch angles when he crushes it, evidenced by a 6.2 percent barrels per plate appearance rate, two percentage points above the league average.

The defense and athleticism should keep McCormick's bat in the lineup when healthy, with higher stolen base conversion rates (75-80 percent) with 22 percent (2023) and 17 percent (2024) stolen base opportunity rates.

McCormick's likely outcome involves 15/15, with 20/20 being possible given the power and speed tools. It's rare to find players who could potentially rack up 500 or more plate appearances past pick 450. Buy the discounted price for McCormick as one of your last-round picks in 15-team leagues.

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