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Chris Clegg's fantasy baseball dynasty buy lows, sell highs, and news for Week 14 (2024). Notable prospects debuts, risers and fallers, and trends to watch.
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my Week 14 fantasy baseball news, notes, and buys/sells for dynasty leagues. Thanks for bearing with me. Due to the birth of my daughter, I am much more sleep-deprived, but I am ready to rock and roll with new dynasty news and notes!
Today's article will look at recent prospect call-ups like David Festa and Jhonkensy Noel along with several other dynasty related news. This weekly series will take a look at various prospects, dynasty news, and discuss fantasy implications. If you enjoy dynasty baseball, you know it is a fast-paced game. Keeping up with the Joneses per se keeps you in the game and at the top of the standings. At the end of the day, we all want to build a dynasty team that sustains and lasts for the long haul. I am here to help you do so.
Keeping up with all the current happenings can help you stay ahead of your league mates. Call-ups, trends, and buying and selling players are all just small pieces to help you stay ahead. So, that's what we will do in this article each week, break down everything you need to know to be successful in dynasty. Let's get to it. What do you need to know for dynasty leagues in Week 14 of the 2024 season?
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Recent MLB Prospect Call-Ups
David Festa was recently featured in my Prospect Splash article here on RotoBaller. He got the call to start on Thursday, June 27.
Through 59.2 innings pitched this season, Festa currently owns a 3.77 ERA backed by a 3.13 xFIP. The walk rate has steadily improved and now sits at 9.7 percent, which is pretty impressive considering he pitched in Triple-A with the ABS. Over his last 10 starts, he has just a 6.7 percent walk rate and a 66% strike rate, which is impressive.
Leading with a fastball that sits near 96 mph, Festa gets an elite ride with IVB up to 20 inches on occasion but consistently in the 18-19-inch range. While the pitch does not have much horizontal movement, Festa misses bats thanks to his low VAA and location of it up in the zone with velocity and IVB. The extension allows the pitch to play up even further.
The slider and the changeup both sit in a similar velocity band, around 87 mph. The changeup generates a high IVB number for a changeup but averages 10-12 inches of horizontal movement with low spin rates. The changeup misses a ton of bats and plays well off his four-seam, having an elite 23% swinging strike rate. The slider has a shorter horizontal break while showing nice depth, and it also misses bats at a high clip. I think Festa could step in and pitch well from the jump. Having over 70 innings in Triple-A, he has the experience and arsenal.
Jhonkensy Noel also got the call and proceeded to mash a home run in his first at-bat in the majors. Noel tops out as one of the top minor league hitters leading into his debut after mashing 18 home runs and slashing .295/.359/.578.
He is not the kind of profile that is going to take a walk, so Noel is going to play down in an OBP league due to a 40 percent chase rate and a 57 percent overall swing rate. The overall contact skills don’t look great, but things have improved. Over the last month, Noel’s chase rate has dropped 10 percentage points and his zone contact is up to 88 percent, an impressive mark.
With a max exit velocity of 118.4 mph and a 90th percentile exit velocity of 109.5 mph, Noel checks in at the top of his age and league. Noel is a fun power hitter who is a different type of prospect than most of the guys in the Cleveland system. I would add him in most formats as his power upside is immense.
Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Trends to Watch: Barrel and EV Risers and Fallers
We are basically halfway through the season at this point. I know that is wild to say, but nearly every team has played over 81 games, marking the official halfway point. With that being said, I broke the first three months of the season into two halves. I took a look at data for the first 40 games for most players, getting us to May 15, and then looking at data post-May 15.
Average EV Risers
| Name | 1st Quarter | 2nd Quarter | Delta |
| Corey Seager | 89.3 | 94.7 | 5.4 |
| Nolan Gorman | 85.7 | 90.2 | 4.4 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 91.3 | 95.5 | 4.2 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 92.6 | 96.5 | 3.9 |
| JJ Bleday | 87.3 | 91.2 | 3.9 |
| Francisco Lindor | 88.8 | 92.2 | 3.4 |
| Jonathan India | 86.2 | 89.5 | 3.3 |
| Jarren Duran | 89.8 | 93.0 | 3.2 |
| Leody Taveras | 88.6 | 91.9 | 3.2 |
| Zach Neto | 87.9 | 91.1 | 3.2 |
Average EV Fallers
| Name | 1st Quarter | 2nd Quarter | Delta |
| Matt Olson | 94.7 | 88.9 | -5.9 |
| Carlos Santana | 91.0 | 86.7 | -4.3 |
| Justin Turner | 88.2 | 84.4 | -3.8 |
| Adolis Garcia | 92.4 | 88.8 | -3.6 |
| Cal Raleigh | 94.2 | 90.6 | -3.6 |
| William Contreras | 94.4 | 90.8 | -3.5 |
| Juan Soto | 95.9 | 92.5 | -3.4 |
| Nico Hoerner | 87.4 | 84.3 | -3.0 |
| Tyler Freeman | 89.7 | 86.8 | -2.9 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 93.1 | 90.2 | -2.9 |
Barrel% Risers
| Name | 1st Quarter | 2nd Quarter | Delta |
| Aaron Judge | 23.5% | 36.8% | 13.3% |
| Ian Happ | 7.1% | 18.2% | 11.0% |
| Francisco Lindor | 8.6% | 19.2% | 10.6% |
| Anthony Santander | 5.8% | 15.0% | 9.3% |
| Taylor Ward | 12.8% | 21.5% | 8.7% |
| Jonathan India | 2.8% | 10.1% | 7.3% |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 16.1% | 23.4% | 7.2% |
| Corey Seager | 12.3% | 19.0% | 6.7% |
| Oneil Cruz | 14.6% | 21.1% | 6.5% |
| Nolan Gorman | 12.5% | 18.9% | 6.4% |
Barrel% Fallers
| Name | 1st Quarter | 2nd Quarter | Delta |
| Matt Olson | 15.5% | 5.7% | -9.9% |
| Cal Raleigh | 19.5% | 10.5% | -9.0% |
| Andrew McCutchen | 17.6% | 9.5% | -8.2% |
| Salvador Perez | 16.4% | 8.7% | -7.8% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 22.5% | 14.8% | -7.6% |
| Manny Machado | 10.7% | 3.8% | -6.9% |
| Riley Greene | 16.8% | 10.0% | -6.8% |
| Connor Joe | 8.8% | 2.3% | -6.5% |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 10.7% | 4.4% | -6.3% |
| Dansby Swanson | 12.4% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Buys and Sells
I hate to talk about this one as a sell, especially with how well he has pitched all year, but it is time to cash out on Luis Gil. As a pitcher with major walk issues, he scraped by and had an impressive 1.82 ERA across his first 12 starts of the season. The xFIP sat at 3.61, nearly two full runs higher, largely because of the batted ball luck he had of a .178 BABIP where .300 is league average and a walk rate of 12.6 percent.
Things have really fallen apart over the last four, especially in his last two starts. It was easy to write off the seven-earned-run blowup in 1.1 innings against the Orioles as one bad-luck outing. But he followed that up with a five-earned-run outing against the Mets in 4.1 innings with four walks.
Over Gil's last four starts, the strikeout minus walk rate is negative. Fifteen percent strikeout rate to a 16.7 percent walk rate. The good news is that you can probably still sell him to someone who is looking at surface numbers. A 3.15 ERA across 85.2 innings this year will play, especially when you pair it with 99 strikeouts. Cash out.
One of my favorite dynasty buys right now is MacKenzie Gore. He has pitched extremely well all year, but I am not sure the value has actually caught up. Gore has a 3.81 ERA on the year, which is fine, but a 1.40 WHIP is not ideal by any means. His strikeout rate sits just south of 27 percent to pair with a 7.5 percent walk rate.
All of the ERA indicators look much better, as he has a 3.13 FIP and 3.55 xFIP. Now feels like the perfect time to buy as well, as Gore is coming off two starts in which he allowed four and five earned runs, respectively, over five innings each start.
Gore's fastball has made major improvements this year, which is notable, and he has three secondaries with a 35 percent whiff rate or higher. The post-hype, former top pitching prospect is still just 25 years old. It is not a sexy profile, but one worth buying!
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