RADIO
A weekly look back and ahead in the NASCAR Cup Series for DFS NASCAR players. Who were the best picks on DraftKings and FanDuel?
Every week following the most recent NASCAR Cup Series race and before the next event, we will review the latest results for top takeaways, featuring the projections and predictions of the RotoBaller staff. Anchored by the 2023 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Racing Writer of the Year and well-regarded NASCAR DFS wizard Jordan McAbee, the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass includes everything you need to climb the tournament ladders, prevail in cash games and cash out in wagers every week.
I will look back at Jordan’s pre-race forecasts and also loop in the analysis of our other top NASCAR experts in a post-race breakdown of what was learned and can be utilized successfully going forward on DraftKings and FanDuel. Recent trends will be identified, and we will highlight where Jordan and the NASCAR team succeeded in their predictive endeavors.
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The Post-Race Inspection: USA Today 301 at New Hampshire
Faring Well With Bell
After sitting through a rain delay of two-plus hours, Christopher Bell notched his second career win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. He now has registered three victories this season. The Joe Gibbs Racing standout led for a race-high 149 laps and paced the field with a Driver Rating of 142.1, which is not too far off from the perfect DR of 150.0.
In the pre-race picks article, which is prominently featured every week on RotoBaller’s NASCAR page, he identified Bell as his top core play at a price tag of $11.0K
“One of the obvious plays on this slate is Christopher Bell, who was the heavy pre-race favorite and will now start fourth after qualifying was rained out. Bell's No. 20 Toyota has been an absolute rocketship on the short, flat tracks this season, and New Hampshire has been one of his best tracks on the NASCAR circuit. We could definitely see a one-dominator race and see him run away with this thing. “
I don’t know what it is about Christopher Bell and New Hampshire, but his driving style suits that track so well.
A well deserved weekend sweep for C-Bell.
— Christopher Hansen (@Chris_Hansen98) June 24, 2024
RotoBaller’s Justin Carter, who supplies a free Cup race preview every week to complement Jordan’s rundown, also endorsed Bell, who was at 13.5K on FanDuel, as a top-shelf play.
“I think you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who didn't view Christopher Bell as the favorite this weekend. Between his dominance at this track across his stock car career and his strong runs this year when running on the tire compound NASCAR's using for the race, Bell is an easy driver to pick to win this one.”
“Sure, you could make a good argument that means you should fade him in GPPs because he'll go over-rostered, but I think I'd rather ride with the Bell chalk and find other ways to differentiate my lineup from everyone else's.”
The Cup series next heads to Nashville Superspeedway next, where Bell has finished seventh, eighth, and ninth in his three starts at the site.
Algorithm Update
Jordan McAbee’s outstanding and undeniably effective algorithm for forecasting Cup race performances is a centerpiece of RotoBaller’s NASCAR coverage for DFS competitors. Those who often lean on the regular reliability of the formula have been rewarded with quality returns in recent weeks.
A mix of important statistics is the heartbeat of the algorithmic formula, including recent driver showings and overall trends, specific track data points, similar track performances, projected strength of the cars, practice speeds, starting positions, and other principal stats.
The algorithm then provides a "Power Index" number for each driver that predicts which cars will deliver the top speeds in a race. All drivers are ranked by their Power Index indicator to construct a projected finishing order.
Recent highlight weeks for the algorithm have included pinpointing eight of the top 11 at Sonoma and nailing five of the top seven finishers at Gateway. Four of the top eight finishers at Darlington were forecasted to place in that range. At Dover, the formula accurately projected eight drivers who finished in the top 10 to do so. Four of the top five finishers at Kansas placed within one to two spots of their predicted final positions.
At New Hampshire, the formula correctly forecasted Bell to end up in Victory Lane. Martin Truex Jr. and Ryan Blaney were predicted to finish second and third and may have finished close to those spots if not for bad luck. A spinout into the wall and a rough pit stop sapped Truex’s momentum that saw him register 33 of the Fastest Laps, which ranked second overall. He still rebounded to finish ninth.
Blaney consistently ran in the top 5 and was in second when he collided with Michael McDowell late in the race, and he finished in 26th. Kyle Larson was projected to finish seventh and placed fourth. Ross Chastain was predicted to finish 11th, and he finished 10th.
Chase Elliott was projected to finish fifth. He led for 43 laps and had the third-best Driver Rating (105.5) of the day but suffered significant damage in a mishap involving Joey Logano on lap 194. Elliott finished in the 19th position despite looking like a contender earlier in the event.
The algorithm would have come through with another shining week if not for a few unfortunate incidents. It was apparent that several of the drivers projected to place within the top 10 did run well enough to showcase the potential accuracy of the algorithm. The potential of the formula was still reflected when we consider how well drivers such as Truex, Blaney, and Elliott performed for significant portions of the race.
A Berry Good Lineup Option
RotoBaller NASCAR Driver News writer Adam Erhardt comprehensively explained why Josh Berry should receive consistent DFS lineup consideration right now in his post-race driver recap: “In what was a long afternoon in The Granite State, Josh Berry persevered to finish third. Sunday's finish marked Berry's second top 5 finish of the season and his fourth top 10 over the last six races.”
“Despite his recent hot streak and having earned a reputation as a strong flat-banked track racer, the Stewart-Haas Racing star only had 13.75% ownership in DraftKings’ premium contest. By comparison, this percentage was lower than what Justin Haley (21.08%), Erik Jones (20.72%), Carson Hocevar (15.71%), and Michael McDowell (15.15%) had. Those drivers are certainly not elite nor have the reputation that Berry has on this style of track.”
A lot of positives for @joshberry and the No. 4 team. pic.twitter.com/fcwcqWxrth
— Stewart-Haas Racing (@StewartHaasRcng) June 24, 2024
“Nevertheless, the 33-year-old came through big for those who put their faith in him, earning 54.30 DraftKings points, the sixth-most of any driver on the slate. Sunday's performance, along with his recent top-10 finishes, are particularly important for the rookie driver. His 2025 status is up in the air since Stewart-Haas announced it would close down at season's end.”
“Given that he is proving himself under the most challenging of circumstances, both the NASCAR and the DFS community will want to take notice of the No. 4 moving forward, including this weekend at Nashville, a track he finished fifth at in the Xfinity Series last season.”
Social Media Spotlight
This week’s betting preview for Nashville Superspeedway.
First bet for Nashville is locked in. Article up on @RotoBaller
Use code JORDAN24
+45 units since Phoenix#NASCAR #Betting https://t.co/43udkV1YhJ
— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) June 25, 2024
A fun fact that Jordan reposted.
Here's a weird stat for you: Yesterday's New Hampshire race had just six lead changes, the fewest on a paved oval in the Cup Series since the spring 2022 Martinsville race had five.
— Jeff Gluck (@jeff_gluck) June 24, 2024
An authentic, trustworthy analyst always offers insights on what he learned from a disappointing day, as Jordan does here.
Betting card got wrecked today.
Got to stop going in over my head when there's an unpredictability potential for a race.
-3.44 units at New Hampshire
Still +45.52 units since Phoenix 💰We'll rebound and get back on track at Nashville.@RotoBaller pic.twitter.com/2TUOXi9o8F
— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) June 24, 2024
Forecast Of The Week
Adam Erhardt was totally on target with Chase Briscoe as a prime value play, as he finished second: “On Saturday afternoon, Chase Briscoe qualified 23rd for Sunday's USA Today 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Heading into this weekend, Briscoe is one of the more intriguing plays from a DFS perspective, as there is a lot to like about the young driver. While his experience at this track is limited compared to others on the slate, he has made the most of his three Cup starts at this venue.”
“With an Average Finish of 17.3 and given that he has improved his finish each year at the site, it is clear the Stewart-Haas star is not intimidated by a track that has gained a reputation for being very challenging, especially for inexperienced drivers. It is also worth noting that his 48.83 DraftKings points in the Next Gen car at this track is the fourth best of anyone in the Cup Series, while his four appearances in the DraftKings optimal lineup on flat tracks tie him for fifth most.”
“At a DraftKings salary of just $7,200, with a starting position that offers Place Differential upside, and given his success both here and on similar track styles, Chase Briscoe should be considered among the top value plays in DFS this weekend.”
Around The Track
-Bell also won the Xfinity Series race at Loudon, and Carter pinpointed him as the top DFS play for the NHMS event: “With qualifying rained out, we have a really odd starting lineup, which was set according to the metric, taking various aspects of past performance into account to set the starting order. That's why Christopher Bell is back in 23rd in the No. 20 for Joe Gibbs Racing.”
“Bell's pretty good at New Hampshire, winning there in 2022 in the Cup Series and also winning all three of his starts there in this series in dominant fashion. In 2021, Bell started 14th but still managed to lead 151 of 200 laps.”
Driver news writer Chris Wassel already has his eye on another big Larson run at Nashville after his fourth-place showing at Loudon: “Kyle Larson had one of the faster cars in terms of speed, but the Hendrick Motorsports car never could get to the lead. Larson only accumulated four stage points in the No. 5 car on Sunday. Larson slipped and slid his way up to fourth place by the end of the USA Today 301.”
“It was another Top 5 result at New Hampshire for Larson. The news gets even better for Hendrick's leading driver as he has an Average Finish of 3.3 at Nashville. This includes a win in 2021 and consecutive Top 5 results in 2022 and 2023. Larson's speed is always something to watch on higher-banked intermediate tracks.”
