Week 9 Plays: Betting picks and predictions for Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee and more …

October 25, 2023

Week 9 NCAA college football betting picks and matchups previews. Dominick's top CFB games to watch in Week 9, including betting lines and recommendations.

Week 8 brought some great games. Not to mention some surprising results. We can only hope Week 9 is much of the same as the season comes down to the final month.

Let us look at some of the best games of Week 9 and make some predictions. Can Florida defeat Georgia in Jacksonville without Brock Bowers? How will Ohio State fare after a physical and emotional win over Penn State? Will Tennessee rebound from a bad loss at Alabama?

These answers and a few more will be looked at as we attempt to make some predictions. And some money. I mean, who doesn’t like money?

Biggest Games of Week 9:

(1)Georgia vs. Florida: Betting Lines: Georgia -14.5(-108) O/U 47.5 O(-110)U(-110)

The game which used to be known as the world’s biggest cocktail party is now just another neutral site game between two well-known teams. Ok, it has not fallen that far. It is still a big rivalry and in 2023, could have a lot to do with who comes out of the SEC East.

Georgia has not looked like a team looking to three-peat so far in 2023. The run game, usually a strength, has been limited due to injury. This has allowed the Bulldogs to rush for just 172.3 yards/game, good for 48^th in the nation. This limitation has forced Georgia to turn to QB Carson Beck to move the ball. Something he has done well as Georgia ranks third with 509.3 yards/game of offense.

Florida comes in with a 5-2 record and is looking to beat Georgia for the first time since 2020, a 44-28 victory during the COVID-altered season. But this is a different Georgia team. One coming off two straight national championships and one that relies more on its offense than its defense after two memorable defensive units over the course of the championships.

The Bulldogs still have a talented defense. They rank sixth in the country, allowing only 262.6 yards/game, and rank top 11 in rush defense and pass defense. This will be the biggest challenge of the season for Graham Mertz and the Gators.

If Florida wants to come out on top, it will need to control the clock and keep the Georgia offense on the sidelines. This will need to be done with a mixture of running the ball, somewhere the Gators rank 81st with 144.9 yards/game, and by using the short pass game. This is where Mertz and the Gators could be effective as Florida quarterbacks rank third with 76.0% completions. If Florida can significantly win the time of possession battle, an upset could be in order. If Beck and the Georgia Bulldogs offense finds its way onto the field, this could be another lop-sided loss.

Betting: Georgia -14.5 OVER 47.5(-110)

(9)Oregon vs. (13)Utah: Betting Lines: Oregon -6.5(-110) O/U 48.5 o(-115)U(-105)

This has been a closely-fought rivalry in the past few seasons. After losing twice to Utah by a combined score of 76-17 in 2021, Oregon came out victorious in 2022 at home winning 20-17. This game will return to Utah, and it will be another tough environment for Oregon after facing a similar environment against Washington in Week 7.

Utah is coming off a big win against USC. A game in which the Utes were able to bully the Trojans all over the field and produce a 34-32 win in the final minute. Oregon, while not the most physical in the past, is far more so in 2023. This has allowed the defensive intensity to match the offensive output of QB Bo Nix, WR Tony Franklin, and RB Bucky Irving.

Irving, who finished with 122 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries in Week 8 against Washington State, will need to be a key contributor against Utah. His ability to gain yardage and sustain drives will allow Oregon to move down the field on the Utes' tough defense, which has limited the Ducks in recent games.

Utah and new QB Bryson Barnes had a great game against USC, putting up 34 points. This Oregon defense, which ranks 12th,  allows 95.1 yards/game. This is in far contrast to a Utah team that rushes for 183.3 yards which ranks them 32nd nationally. Oregon is weaker against the pass with a national rank of 57, but Utah is unable to take advantage of this weakness with a passing offense ranked 119th with only 161.7 yards/game.

Utah barely cracks the top 100 in scoring offense at 23.4. If it is unable to hold down the Oregon offense to far less than its average of 47.0, this game will be over early. If it can again out-physical Oregon in the trenches, another upset could be in order.

Betting: Oregon -6.5 (-110) UNDER 48.5(-105)

(3)Ohio State vs. Wisconsin: Betting Lines: Ohio State -14.5(-110) O/U 43.5 O(-115)U(-105)

How does Ohio State come back from a solid, defensive win against Penn State in Week 8? An effective way to do so is against a Wisconsin team which despite its record, has been a bad team in 2023.

Coach Luke Fickell has tried to bring in a more pass-friendly offense to the dairyland. He did so by not just bringing in Phil Longo from North Carolina but also by bringing in experienced QB Tanner Mordecai from SMU. So far neither has worked out and Mordecai is now done for the season.

Ohio State, a team that normally wins with offense, is winning this season with a defense ranked top 10 in total yards, yards per play, yards per rush, and pass yards per game. It also brings in the third-ranked scoring defense at just 10.0 points/game. The defensive coordinator finally has his guys in Columbus.

This has allowed him to make the changes needed to make this a good defense. And a defense easily capable of holding down a Wisconsin offense that ranks 79th in scoring and 66th in total yards. Wisconsin does not have much to put up in the fight against the Buckeyes. It might be close early, but Ohio State will be able to pull away in the second half with QB Kyle McCord finding Marvin Harrison Jr. downfield.

Betting: Ohio State -14.5 (-110) UNDER 43.5(-105)

(20)Tennessee vs. Kentucky: Betting Lines: Tennessee -3.5(-110) O/U 51.5 O(-105)U(-115)

Tennessee lost what could be a pivotal game in its season on Saturday.

After being up 20-7 at halftime against Alabama, they failed to score a single point in the second half and allowed the Crimson Tide to rattle off 27 in a 34-20 loss. This will be an entirely different game for the Volunteers as they will look forward to playing a team that, in many respects, mirrors themselves.

Both Kentucky and Tennessee will look to control the game through the run. Tennessee, after being a pass-first team with Hendon Hooker, has become a run-first team with Joe Milton struggling to find the same magic in the offense. The Volunteers rank seventh in rush offense and have rushed for 217.3 yards/game on the season. In the passing game, Tennessee ranks 76th with 221.3 yards/game. It will run, run, and run again. And so will Kentucky.

After bringing in Devin Leary from North Carolina State, Kentucky was hoping to replace Will Levis and be able to pass the ball on opposing defenses. Unfortunately, at 196.7 yards/game, Kentucky ranks 105th in this area of the offense. The run game, while not much better, is able to produce 155.6 yards and ranks 67 nationally. While this will be a challenging task against the Tennessee rush defense (25^th at 109.9 yards/game) this will be the only way in which Kentucky will be able to keep its offense on the field.

Lexington is in store for a low-scoring, three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust type of game. This will be 1930’s football at its best. So be ready for a snoozer. But one that could be important in the SEC East standings at season's end.

Betting: Tennessee -3.5 (-110) UNDER 51.5(115)

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