RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 20, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
Sunday belonged to the west, as we saw some excellent pitching from hurlers who call the western divisions their home. First, we'll look at Chase Silseth, who delivered an incredible performance in a game the Angels ultimately lost, as is tradition in Anaheim. Then, we'll break down Austin Gomber's six scoreless innings in St. Louis, the latest in a string of strong outings for him.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of 08/07/2023.
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Chase Silseth, Los Angeles Angels – 24% Rostered
2023 Stats (prior to this start): 29.1 IP, 3.99 ERA, 5.04 FIP, 11.3% K-BB%
08/06 vs. SEA: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 12 K
Shohei who? It was a career day for Chase Silseth on Sunday, as the young right-hander mowed down Seattle for 12 strikeouts over seven innings. His outing was spoiled by the Mariners in extra innings, but the start marks the third straight effective outing for Silseth since rejoining the Angels’ rotation. In fact, Silseth has a cool 2.04 ERA, 13.2 K/9, and 34.3% K-BB% over his last three starts. Could Silseth be the spark the Halos and your fantasy team need to make a run down the stretch, or will this Angel fail to produce a miracle?
Originally an 11th-round draft pick out of Arizona, Silseth was a mid-tier prospect in a weak Angels farm system. Silseth projected more as a tweener — a player who could make the occasional spot start and hang on as a number five, but not someone expected to be a strong fantasy contributor. He works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, splitter, and cutter. However, Silseth has simplified his repertoire since returning to the rotation, relying more heavily on his slider and splitter while eschewing his cutter. In fact, the slider was his most frequently used pitch in his recent start. It is looking to be quite the weapon.
Silseth threw his slider 41.4% of the time in this start, which continues a trend that began upon his return to the majors. Silseth has thrown his slider 35.1% of the time over his last three starts, compared to an 18.3% usage rate prior to July 19. His slider has also morphed into a more effective pitch. Silseth has taken a few MPH off the slider, lowering it from 84.7 MPH on average to 81 MPH. He also added three inches of horizontal movement to the pitch, changing it from a traditional slider into a big, spinning slurve. To get an idea of the change, let’s look at Silseth’s slider from a start back in May and compare it to one from this start.
Oops. The pitch was poorly located and hardly moved, making it easy pickings for a left-handed slugger. Now, let’s look at two from his most recent start.
It’s an entirely new pitch and a big reason why Silseth has a 13.2 K/9 over his last three starts after posting a mediocre 8.2 K/9 in his eight previous MLB starts. Batters are now managing just a microscopic .087 AVG and .044 ISO against the pitch, along with a 23% swinging strike rate. It’s far too early to declare the pitch a bona fide strikeout weapon, but there’s a lot to like about what Silseth has done with it thus far, including his ability to target hitters from both sides of the plate.
So, is it move over Justin Steele? Is Chase Silseth our new slider king? What if I told you the slider wasn’t even his best strikeout pitch in this start? It’s true, as Silseth notched 12 of his 21 whiffs with his splitter, compared to eight whiffs with his slider. An 88 MPH offering, Silseth’s splitter is best characterized by its low spin (1,121 average RPM) and six additional inches of vertical break. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.
Silseth had Julio Rodriguez nearly swinging out of his shoes. Fantasy players should certainly be encouraged by Silseth’s splitter usage, as he threw the splitter 23.2% of the time against Seattle. This was a big increase from his previous starts, including his two July starts. If Silseth can effectively wield both the slider and splitter, he could become a strikeout machine.
Before you break open the FAB piggy bank, there are some areas of concern. Yes, it is shocking to hear this about a pitcher with only 65 big-league innings under his belt, but it had to be said. Silseth’s fastball has been ineffective, even during his hot stretch. Over his last three starts, opponents have a .286 AVG and .786 SLG off his four-seamer, and opponents have a .444 wOBA and 94.3 MPH average exit velocity on the pitch this season. Consequently, he’s been susceptible to the long ball. Silseth has given up 1.73 HR/9 in 2023 and has served up four homers in his last three starts. In his 11 big league starts, Silseth has given up a home run in all but two. He also has three multi-homer starts to his name.
There is hope that Silseth works through his home run issues. He only had a 0.21 HR/9 at Triple-A this season, has a 56.4% groundball rate in the majors, and has been the victim of a 25.9% HR/FB ratio. Still, he needs to stop giving up home runs before we can trust him to, well, stop giving up home runs.
While he’s been unlucky on the home run front, he’s had his share of good fortune in other areas, chiefly his .241 BABIP and 76% LOB rate. His ability to induce groundballs should help keep his BABIP relatively low, but no one should expect him to maintain a .241 BABIP.
Verdict:
Silseth has revamped his game after a stint in the minors and looks like a whole new pitcher. He modified his slider from a traditional offering into a movement-heavy slurve to great success. He developed his splitter into his best strikeout weapon. This gives him two plus breaking balls ensuring he should be able to generate solid strikeout numbers on a consistent basis. Silseth is also an adept groundball pitcher, with a 56.4% groundball rate in the majors and a 57% rate in the minors this season. Silseth’s fastball is a below-average pitch, but with seasoning it could become more effective thanks to its 95 MPH velocity and above-average spin.
There are reasons to be skeptical of Silseth thanks to his .241 BABIP and ongoing home run issues, but they aren’t enough to scare me away. It’s unlikely that another pitcher of Silseth’s potential will emerge on waivers this season, so this is a player I’d be willing to invest a good portion of my remaining FAB to acquire.
Austin Gomber, Colorado Rockies – 11% Rostered
2023 Stats (prior to this start): 114 IP, 5.68 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 9.2% K-BB%
08/06 @ STL: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
Austin Gomber had himself a bit of a revenge game on Sunday. He blanked the team that traded him by pitching six shutout innings to pick up his ninth win of the season. It must have felt good during what has been a rough season for Gomber. This start was the first time he left the game with zeros on the board since April 24 against Cleveland. However, Gomber’s strong performance extends beyond this past Sunday. Don’t look now, but Gomber has a 2.63 ERA, 3.43 FIP, and 4.1% K-BB% over his last eight starts. Could a Rockies hurler actually be valuable down the stretch, or will Gomber turn those who trust him into goobers?
Originally a fourth-round pick by St. Louis back in 2014, Gomber was Colorado’s big prize in the infamous Nolan Arenado swap. It hasn’t quite worked out as planned for Gomber or Colorado. The big left-hander has a 5.18 ERA in 79 career starts with the Rox, and his numbers have been worsening the longer he’s been in Colorado. Working with a four-pitch mix, Gomber throws a four-seam fastball, a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. It was mostly the fastball and slider that made easy work of the Cardinals in his most recent game. Gomber threw the two pitches 70% of the time.
While Gomber’s fastball and slider did plenty of work for him in this one, there’s reason for skepticism regarding the long-term sustainability of this approach. Batters have pulverized his fastball for a .339 AVG, .651 SLG, and .443 wOBA on the year. It’s certainly not easy to pitch in Coors, but the thin Rocky Mountain air doesn’t explain how batters have smoked his fastball for a 93 MPH average exit velocity, which is 2.5 MPH harder than he throws it. It also doesn’t explain the 15-degree average launch angle or the 4.2% swinging strike rate with the pitch. I know it’s a fastball, but yeesh.
If you’re looking for strikeouts, it's best to look elsewhere. Gomber’s fastball is deficient, but that’s the least of his problems. His slider has a .304 AVG against, an 11.4% swinging strike rate, and a pathetic 26.1% chase rate. Gomber got two whiffs with his slider in this start. Two. Of four total. Despite starting, he had either the same number or fewer whiffs than three of the relievers that appeared in this game. Even during his hot eight-start stretch, Gomber had a pitiful 15% strikeout rate. Gomber is more than a pitcher who doesn’t get many strikeouts. He’s an active detriment to your fantasy teams in Roto formats.
Does Gomber have any redeeming factor in fantasy? In fact, he does. His curveball has performed superbly this season, with batters mustering a .189 AVG, .316 SLG, and .233 wOBA off the pitch. With above-average spin and drop, Gomber’s curve could become a plus offering for him. He’ll never be a strikeout pitcher, but the curveball’s 12.5% swinging strike rate and 30.6% chase rate puts some oomph in Gomber’s game. Its average launch angle of four degrees also helps him keep the ball on the ground. This is something important for every pitcher, but especially for ones in Coors Field.
Wouldn’t it be great if I could tell you that Gomber has begun incorporating his curveball more frequently, and that’s the reason for his success? It would be simple and straightforward, and it would give fantasy players some modicum of confidence when adding and starting him. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case for Gomber, whose pitch mix hasn’t changed much over the course of the season. It seems like his recent stretch of success has primarily been the product of luck. It's hard to envision Gomber pitching to a sub-3 ERA going forward. Even a sub-4 ERA might be tough.
Verdict:
Gomber has an impressive 2.63 ERA, 3.43 FIP, and 4.1% K-BB% over his last eight starts, five of which came in Coors Field. With such an uncharacteristic performance, one would expect that he is doing something different, such as trying a new pitch or changing his sequencing. However, that’s not the case.
Gomber's underlying numbers still predict doom, and the deficiencies of his below-average stuff are exacerbated by his home ballpark. Gomber doesn’t produce strikeouts, has bloated ratios, and struggles to consistently win games due to his poor supporting cast. If you are still in the fantasy championship race at this point in the year, don’t trust Gomber with a title on the line.
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