RADIO
One-quarter of the NFL season is already over, which is hard to believe. 1 month into the season we now have enough data and history to go on to hopefully make some accurate predictions for the rest of the year. As each week goes on we have a better understanding of new coaches, offensive schemes, players, and overall how they may perform in games. Some of the arbitrage that existed early in the season with players like Amon-Ra St. Brown is no longer there as he is now one of the more expensive Wide Receivers in DFS. Hopefully, your season is off to a good start and you have been cashing in some contests. If you haven't, well the good news is there is still time to right the ship and turn this thing around!
If there is one truth that exists in the fantasy universe it's that for every good prediction, the next one cancels it out. Last week I recommended none other than Jared Goff as the Week 4 DFS value of the week and he shined against the Seahawks' defense with 34.2 fantasy points scored and was the QB1 on the week! However, before I get too full of myself I must admit I also recommended Marcus Mariota, who was nothing short of a disaster against the Browns on Sunday and finished as the QB32. So take it all with a grain of salt. J.J. Zachriason once said that fantasy can be a very humbling industry at times. We think we are smarter than the field and can predict every potential outcome, but the reality is no one can every time, not even the experts! Jared Goff is now over the 6k range on DraftKings and no longer qualifies as a bargain QB for the basis of this article. How quickly things can change.
This article will run every week throughout the regular season. It won't include obvious choices but instead players who appear undervalued. If you didn't catch my Week 1 article with DFS tips and tricks, it can be found here. As the values currently sit, players will fall into the value bucket if they are a quarterback in the 5k range, running backs who are 6k or less, wide receivers at 5.5k and under, and 4k or less for tight ends based on DraftKings salaries. When it comes to tournaments, stacking our quarterback with one of their pass catchers is a must and we should be looking for players with higher guaranteed floors to get us over the 50/50 hump in cash games. No matter which one you decide to play this week, here are some bargain players with potential in Week 5. Let's get to them picks already!
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 5
Ryan Tannehill, TEN at WAS | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,900
After starting the season in an 0-2 hole, Ryan Tannehill and Mike Vrabel have done a nice job getting this team to play hard and win their last two games. This week Tannehill and the Titans get the Commanders' defense, which has given up the 8th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this season at 21.4 per game!
While Tannehill has yet to hit 300 yards passing, he is completing 66 percent of his passes and has 5 TD passes on the season. His history as a QB who can pick up fantasy points on the ground via rushing seems like it is coming to an end at the age of 34, but Tannehill has a very good matchup this week. The Over-Under on the game sits at 42.5 points and the Titans are favored by 1.5 even though they are on the road.
While Treylon Burks looks to be sidelined for several weeks with a turf toe injury, the Titans will have to rely on Derrick Henry and Tannehill more than ever. If they can get the play-action passing game going where Tannehill excels they could be in for a high-scoring week. So far this season Tennessee has scored 20, 7, 24, and 24 points. This week's matchup with the Commanders feels like a get-right game for the entire Titans offense and Tannehill is a relatively safe play with a high floor which allows us to spend our DFS salary elsewhere.
Trevor Lawrence, JAX vs HOU | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,600
After starting off the season hot, Sunshine from Remember the Titans as some like to refer to Lawrence had himself a tough outing in Week 4 against the Philadelphia Eagles. In the rainy elements, Lawrence completed less than 50 percent of his passes and had four fumbles. The good news is he gets a porous Houston Texans defense this week that is a solid recipe for a bounceback.
Lawrence has thrown for 946 yards and 8 TDs in his first four games with just 2 INTs. He has looked much more the part of the franchise signal caller he was drafted to be with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Christian Kirk has been thriving as his go-to receiver and James Robinson has been great for the Jaguars on the ground.
The Texans are 29th in the NFL in yards allowed at 412.2 per game and rank in the bottom half of all defenses in points allowed and passing yards allowed. They are ranked 10th in the least fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks so far this season as well, but that is also because they have been behind in just about all of their contests and currently sit at the bottom of the AFC South with a record of 0-3-1. Expect a much better performance from Lawrence this week.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 5
James Robinson, JAX vs HOU | DK: $6,300, FD: $8,000
Arguably the best feel-good story of the 2022 NFL season, James Robinson has bounced back from an Achilles tear late in the 2021 season and has been performing admirably for the Jaguars. In fact, he finished in the top 1o of fantasy running backs in each of the first 3 weeks of the season! So far Robinson appears to be the lead back in Jacksonville as he has played 54 percent of the offensive snaps. Travis Etienne is not an inside runner and will likely be featured more as a pass catcher in this offense.
After being slowed up by the Philadelphia Eagles defense last week, Robinson gets a juicy matchup with the Texans in Week 5. So far this season the Texans have the most fantasy points allowed to running backs at 29.9 per game! The fact that the Jaguars are at home and favored by 7 points makes this matchup very favorable for Robinson on the ground. One thing to consider when picking RBs for DFS is the spread. Since Etienne is more of the pass catcher out of the backfield in this offense, he is likely going to be playing more when the Jaguars are behind as evidenced last week. However, against a team like Houston where the Jaguars are expected to be leading, they will be running with the ball which is great for Robinson. For game-script dependent RBs we must take the spread into account when deciding to play them.
The Over-Under on this contest sits at 43.5 points so there should be plenty of scoring. This feels like a solid week for Robinson to show us how good he is after the Jaguars were beaten pretty handily by the Eagles last week. Take advantage of the dip on this one and use it to your advantage.
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs DET | DK: $4,700, FD: $6,000
As mentioned with James Robinson above, the Patriots are facing a defense that is giving up the second-most points to fantasy running backs. Last week the Lions' defense was absolutely thrashed in all phases as they gave up 48 points in a home loss to the Seahawks. The Lions' defense is so bad it would probably give up 200 yards rushing to the cast on The View if they were all rotating at tailback. Right now the Lions are the equivalent of the dude in your fantasy league who is 1-3 even though he has the most points. Currently, the Lions are the perfect storm for fantasy this season as they feature the No. 1 offense in the entire league, as well as the No. 32 defense.
In the last 3 weeks, Rhamondre has played 62, 62, and 55 percent of the Patriots' offensive snaps and has been playing more than Damien Harris, even though the two share a backfield. With Mac Jones uncertain to start this week due to his lingering high-ankle sprain, the Pats may be forced to rely on the rookie Bailey Zappe. That shouldn't worry us right now since the Lions' defense is about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Stevenson is used more as a pass-catcher than Harris and both running backs may be relied upon heavily this week.
Stevenson has looked fantastic on the ground as he is close to averaging 5.0 yards per rush. He also has 11 receptions on the season. While the Pats' offense has been slow in getting started through the first 4 games of the season, they shouldn't have any problem moving the ball on the Detroit defense. The spread for the game is Patriots minus-3. In what should be a close game we want the game-script proof of Stevenson in case New England does fall behind.
Kareem Hunt, CLE vs LAC | DK: $6,000 FD: $5,900
Arguably one of the best RBs in the entire NFL and someone who would probably be a top 5 start in fantasy every week if he were on another team, Kareem Hunt is one of the most exciting players to watch. This week the Browns play the Chargers who albeit banged up with injuries are still 2.5-point road favorites. In a game where the Browns could be playing from behind and forced to air it out, Hunt likely could be the better fantasy option than Nick Chubb, and he is a much less expensive option.
Hunt found the end zone twice in Week 1 victory against Carolina but hasn't gotten across the goal line since. That should change this week against a Chargers unit that is giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to running backs on the season. So far all three value picks at RB this week face the three worst defenses against fantasy running backs and all three of the RBs are at a discounted DFS price! While there is always a chance Nick Chubb could get going on the ground, the Browns are now at the more challenging part of their schedule where they will play against the better quarterbacks in the NFL and may struggle to keep up with better offenses while Deshaun Watson is still suspended. This could open things up for Hunt in the passing game.
So far this season Hunt is averaging close to 12 carries per game and 3+ receptions. In a game where the Browns' defense may not be able to contain the high-powered Chargers offense, Hunt feels like he could see plenty of work. As the Chargers' defense is dealing with injuries of their own, they have been gashed on the ground by their opponents each week and Hunt should have no problem getting loose behind Wyatt Teller and Joel Bitonio.
Honorable Mention:
Jeff Wilson Jr., SF at CAR | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,500
The 49ers have a great matchup this week against the struggling Carolina Panthers where they are 6.5 point road favorites. As mentioned in a previous column, when we are looking at playing non-pass catching running backs for fantasy and for DFS, we always want to look at the spread for the game. Why? Because not all running backs are game-script proof and the ones who don't catch passes will often be on the sidelines when their teams are trailing. Wilson Jr. has shown an ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, but does not have a strong established track record of it yet with only a career high of 13 receptions.
Since starting running back Elijah Mitchell went down with a knee injury in Week 1, Wilson Jr. has filled in nicely averaging 16 carries per game over the last 3 weeks while playing 70 percent of the 49ers offensive snaps in Weeks 3 and 4. As we know, head coach Kyle Shanahan loves to ride the hot hand and if Wilson's pace continues along with San Francisco's winning ways there is a chance he may remain the starter for the rest of the season.
On MNF at the Rams, Wilson had a 32-yard scamper that he took to the house on top of rushing 18 times for 74 yards. This week's matchup is a good one and we should expect to see a lot of Wilson with the 49ers likely leading for much of the contest.
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 5
Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs MIA | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,000
Garrett Wilson has stepped in at the NFL level and has looked like a 10-year veteran right away. So far this season he has earned 39 targets in just 4 games and has 20 receptions for 255 yards and 2 TDs. Quarterback Zach Wilson returned to action last week against the Steelers and many wondered how much different the passing volume would look without Joe Flacco (who started the first 3 games), but Garrett still saw 6 targets in a 24-20 win.
This week he faces a Dolphins secondary that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to Wide Receivers so far this season. The Jets are at home where they are 3.5-point underdogs and the Over-Under for the game stands at 46. Wilson is an electrifying playmaker who can do some incredible things with the ball in his hands. In his Week 2 performance against the Browns, Wilson had 8 catches for 102 yards and 2 TDs. While he has cooled off a little bit in the last two games, the Jets offense is looking like a potent one with the emergence of Breece Hall and the talented Elijah Moore lining up opposite of Wilson.
While there is some risk in playing Wilson this week, we should feel good about the targets he has been getting as a solid baseline floor and he is also a player who has shown that he can dominate and take over a game. His range of outcomes for this week is wide, but for just $5200 and $6000 in DFS, he is a relative bargain given what we know he can do. More explosive games are coming from Wilson this season, there is no question about it.
Jakobi Meyers, NE vs DET | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,000
A pure target hog for fantasy, Meyers has been sidelined and missed the last two games for the Pats after suffering a knee injury. While he is still listed as questionable, he was back at practice yesterday and is hopefully on track to play this week in a fantastic matchup against the Lions. Meyers has established himself as the pure alpha in the Patriots' wide receiver room and earned 19 targets through the first two weeks of the season when healthy.
Meyers is an absolute bargain this week on DK at a price of under 5k and we should remember that the Lions have given up 38, 27, 28, and 48 points in four games so far this season. While Mac Jones could be sidelined for one more week, which does hurt Meyers's value a little bit, it is also why we are able to get him at such a discounted price. Even if Bailey Zappe or Brian Hoyer suit up at QB this Sunday, it is hard to imagine that the Patriots won't be able to move the ball at will on this much-maligned defensive unit.
Keep an eye on his injury status for this week, but if he plays he is an absolute smash against a Lions secondary that is giving up the 6th-most fantasy points to wide receivers and on a statistical level is considered the worst unit across the entire NFL.
Michael Gallup, DAL at LAR | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,000
Michael Gallup was back in action for the first time this season after an ACL tear ended his 2021 season prematurely. While he had just 2 receptions for 24 yards and a TD, Gallup played 64 percent of the offensive snaps and we should view last week as purely just a warm-up game.
This week the Cowboys play a Rams defense that is giving up the 3rd-most fantasy points to wide receivers at 39.4 per game! Without much of a pass rush outside of Aaron Donald, the once mighty Rams unit hasn't looked like the dominant foe of seasons past. While Cooper Rush has been filling in for Dak Prescott, he has performed admirably in three games so far this season and the Cowboys stand at 3-1.
Tight end Dalton Schulz is banged up and there aren't too many weapons for Rush to go to outside of CeeDee Lamb. The Rams are favored by 5.5 in this contest at home and the Over-Under stands at 43. If the Cowboys' defense isn't able to hold back Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, the Cowboys may be forced to air it out which would be great for Gallup. With Jalen Ramsey likely covering Lamb, Gallup should be able to do whatever he wants against this defense.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 5
Cameron Brate, TB vs ATL | DK: $3,400, FD: $4,900
It's hard to believe many of the Tampa Bay pass catchers are so cheap on DFS compared to what we are used to. Many of the pass catchers have been injured, there have been severe losses across the offensive line, and even Tom Brady himself showed up on the injury report this week. The good news is that Tampa gets a Falcons defense that is allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to tight ends this season at 15.7 per game!
Brate has seen a decent amount of targets so far this season with 19 in the first four games. While he has yet to catch a touchdown, we know that Brady loves to target his tight end in the red zone and the Falcons' defense isn't very good. Tampa Bay is currently 2-2, but it looked like the offense we had envisioned when Brady threw for 385 yards and 3 TDs in a loss to the Chiefs where things appeared to be finally clicking.
Cameron Brate is listed as questionable and on the injury report after suffering a concussion. If he does not play, keep an eye on your lineup as well as this article as it will be updated based on injury reports before Sunday.
UPDATE 10/7: Brate has been ruled out for Week 4.
David Njoku, CLE vs LAC | DK: $3,800, FD: $5,700
One of the fantasy community's favorite late tight ends this season, "The Chief" as many refer to him, Njoku has been showing flashes of why the Browns signed him to a massive contract extension in the offseason. Njoku has established himself as a top two target on the team and has seen a total of 14 targets over the last two weeks. While there is some concern about his production until Deshaun Watson is back from suspension due to the Browns tiny passing pie as it currently sits, Njoku has a favorable matchup this week against the Chargers.
While the Chargers have only give up an average of 7.9 fantasy points per game to tight ends, which currently ranks 20th, the Browns may struggle to keep with the high-powered Chargers offense unless Nick Chubb can have a monster game on the ground. The Chargers defense has also been gutted with injuries of late and at least for now does not appear to be the dominant unit that we had anticipated them to be.
Njoku is a big-play tight end who has the elite speed and athleticism to stretch the field. Due to the reality that he is one of the few tight ends in the NFL who can take one to the house, he is an intriguing play in DFS lineups regardless. Last season against the Chargers, Njoku ripped off a 71-yard touchdown. Given his emergence in the Browns offense this season we should start feeling more confident in Njoku going forward.
Dallas Goedert, PHI at ARI | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,100
You know that old saying across the fantasy landscape in the last few seasons: "Always find a tight end to play against the Cardinals." So far this season that has still been true as the Cardinals' defense is allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points to tight ends at 16.5 per game. Dallas Goedert has looked great so far and the Philadelphia Eagles are 4-0 as their offense has been dominating opponents through the first month of the season.
Goedert has seen a total of 20 targets in the first four games and has 16 receptions for 240 yards and 1 TD on the season. He is averaging 15.0 yards per catch, which is incredible for a tight end! Not only is Goedert seeing volume on a consistent basis, but he is also a much better athlete than he gets credit for and has the ability to stretch the field unlike most of the starting tight ends in the NFL.
The Eagles are favored by 5 this week and the Over-Under sits at 49, which is the highest of all the games on the Sunday slate! Goedert feels like a must-play against a struggling Arizona defense.
Thank you for reading my article. Feel free to send me a message if you have any questions on Twitter if you have any more DFS questions. Best of luck this week!
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