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For the first time in the race's history, the annual NASCAR Cup Series All-Star Race will take place deep in the heart of Texas at Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday evening (June 13). And there are a lot of unknowns. It would take me a solid half hour to explain the rules of the race to you; as there are stages, inverts, bonus money for pit crews and, of course, the $1 million check awaiting the winner in victory lane. So, I'll do my best.
The race will consist of six stages, with the first four being 15 laps each. At the conclusion of those stages, there will be a random invert between positions eight and 12. At the end of the fourth segment, cumulative average finishes will set the starting grid for the fifth stage, which is 30 laps and includes mandatory green flag pit stop. The final stage is a 10-lap sprint, per typical All-Star formats.
Sheesh, that's a lot, and hopefully clear. There's also the All-Star Open which will see four drivers transfer into the All-Star Race (I cover a couple to look out for here): three via stage wins and the fan vote winner. Ready for some All-Star racing?
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Kyle Larson
(DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $13,500 | DK SportsBook +350)
Since this is the first All-Star Race held at Texas, there are more questions than answers coming into the 100-lap event. But since the reconfiguration of the 1.5-mile track in 2017, TMS has been hard to pass at, especially for the lead.
Speaking of lead, via random draw, Kyle Larson will lead the field to the green flag for the first segment. I would put high odds on the No. 5 Chevrolet leading all 15 laps and having the lowest average finish through the first four stages. Why? He's shown the ability to pass this season, no matter the track configuration.
Plus, have you seen Larson on intermediate tracks this season? Those have been his bread and butter tracks, having just led 327 of 400 laps in the Coca-Cola 600 just two weeks ago. Having swept the last two races, his confidence is at an all-time high, so yeah, it wouldn't be shocking to see him repeat his 2019 performance and collect his second $1 million check.
Ryan Blaney
(DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $10,500 | DK SportsBook +1200)
On the opposite end of the spectrum to start the opening stage is Ryan Blaney, who is shotgun on the field, of those who are locked into the All-Star Race. Because of that, his price is high, and he still has 12-1 odds of winning the race. Not bad.
It shouldn't be all that surprising, though, as Blaney has dominated two races at Texas over the last four years, including 150 laps led in last July's event. Unfortunately for him, he's still seeking his first victory in the Lone Star State.
Having it come in the form of $1 million doesn't sound bad, does it? This season, Blaney's sole win came at a similar intermediate track in Atlanta Motor Speedway. Remember there's an invert after 15 laps. Should the No. 12 pass a handful of cars, it's possible he could be leading come the second stage.
Alex Bowman
(DraftKings $9,300 | FanDuel $8,000 | DK SportsBook +1400)
Alex Bowman's 2021 season has been filled with flashes of potential (winning two races) and inconsistency. But of late, the No. 48 Chevrolet has been on rails.
Since winning at Dover International Speedway one month ago, Bowman has four top-10 finishes in a row, tying the best streak of his career. Of late, he also hasn't been too shabby at Texas, having earned top-five finishes in two of the last three races.
The All-Star Race, at times, can be checkers or wreckers. But there's no debating it, Hendrick Motorsports is the best team in Cup currently. Sure, that can change. But having swept the first two positions each of the last four weeks, it wouldn't be surprising to see HMS control the All-Star Race, too. I think Bowman is a sneaky pick.
Kevin Harvick
(DraftKings $8,700 | FanDuel $11,500| DK SportsBook +1200)
It wasn't all that long ago Kevin Harvick had the dominant car in the Cup Series. That arguably came to end in the last race at TMS where, while leading, the No. 4 Ford slipped in a dampened part of the track and hit the outside wall. The team could never recover from that, missing out on the 2020 Championship 4 race.
But historically, Harvick is really good at Texas. Had it not been for that slip up, it looked like the No. 4 car was on cruise control in the last race at the track. Prior to that incident, he had 12 consecutive top 10s at Texas.
But when it comes t0 2021, it's been a totally different story for the No. 4 team. Harvick has had to battle to finish inside the top five, but compared to his teammates, it's been another solid season. Who knows, maybe Harvick can get back on track by winning $1 million. He takes the initial green flag from 12th position.
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Kyle Busch
(DraftKings $8,200 | FanDuel $12,000 | DK SportsBook +800)
What's not a sneaky pick is Kyle Busch. The Las Vegas native thrives at Texas, winning four times in 30 starts and is on a streak of four straight top-10 finishes at the venue. Oh yeah, Busch also scored his only victory of 2020 the last time NASCAR visited TMS and he dominated the Xfinity Series race on Saturday. What more could you want?
Over the last few weeks, the return of the once dominant Kyle Busch has returned. At times, like during the C0ca-Cola 600, he's had the only car that can compete with Hendrick Motorsports. That's a good thing for Rowdy Nation.
We'll see how strong Busch is right away on Sunday evening, as he starts alongside Larson on the front row. The No. 18 team could make a statement should he win the opening stage, having passed the No. 5 Chevrolet. Either way, Busch is severely underpriced on DraftKings and enters the race listed as having the third-best chance to win.
Tyler Reddick
(DraftKings $7,100 | FanDuel N/A | DK SportsBook -155 to advance)
Alright, it's time to highlight some of the drivers that aren't locked into the All-Star Race. And quite simply, this could be a waste of time should they not advance. But I've elected to pick two drivers that are quietly having breakout seasons.
The first is Tyler Reddick. Dating back to the dirt race at Bristol Motor Speedway, the No. 8 team has seven top-10 finishes in 10 races. The team has shown a countless amount of consistency, running in the back half of the top 10. And of the four mile-and-a-half races this season, he's earned three top 10s, including a season-best of second at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Honestly, I wouldn't put money down to have Reddick win the All-Star Race, but he is a heavy favorite to advance from The Open. Should he get through, he will line up deep in the field and will likely bring great value to your team. Remember last July, the No. 8 car finished runner-up to Austin Dillon in Reddick's first Cup start at Texas.
Chris Buescher
(DraftKings $5,800 | FanDuel N/A | DK SportsBook +200 to advance)
I'm not totally sure what more Chris Buescher needs to prove in order to be taken seriously. Heading into The Open, the No. 17 team is listed fourth of drivers to advance, behind Reddick, Matt DiBenedetto and Erik Jones.
But surely that's perfectly fine with Buescher, as he's quietly been overachieving in 2021.
Going off gut instinct, there's a good chance Buescher qualifies to compete in his second All-Star Race (finished 17th in 2017). This year, he's stood out at 1.5-mile venues, scoring three top 10s and leading a career-high 57 laps and earning a stage win at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The No. 17 team has been this year's definition of underrated.
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