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JB continues his Keeper Value Formula series with his 2016 third base (3B) fantasy baseball rankings for keeper and dynasty leagues. Target these MLB third basemen.
The Keeper Valuation Formula uses the players’ age, draft round, number of teams in the league, current stats, projected stats, games played percentage, positional value, and some secret squirrel statistical math. The product is a TRUE Keeper Value for each player.
These players did not make it into my Top Five Third Basemen Keeper Values, but may still generate inquiries from fantasy owners this off season.
2016 Third Basemen Keeper Values: Outside the Top Five
Todd Frazier CWS, 29 (Fourth Round) Keeper Valuation Score: 13.85
2015: 82 R, 35 HR, 89 RBI, 13 SB, .255 BA
The hometown hero enjoyed a fine season in what turned out to be his last in Cincinnati. Frazier set career highs in HR, RBI, and ISO (.242), which seems to be a theme among third basemen in 2015. His 20.2 K% was the lowest of his career, and his 13 SB tied for second at the position. Frazier was well on his way into MVP conversations heading into the mid-summer classic. At the break he had 54 R, 25 HR, 57 RBI, with a .922 OPS, and a blistering .301 ISO. Then the Home Run Derby happened.
Winning the Derby in his home park must have been Frazier's one and only goal of the season, because after he accomplished the feat, he vanished from fantasy relevance. After the contest, including going 0-3 in the All Star Game, he hit .220 with 28 R, 10 HR, 32 RBI, with a weak .664 OPS and .170 ISO.
The 2nd half numbers were not the only concerning splits Frazier struggled with. Away from Great American Ballpark, his OPS dropped to .733. In fact, over the past three seasons, he has hit the fourth most home HR in the league. Having being acquired by the Chicago White Sox this off eason, this could cause some concern. But more on that later. With RISP, Frazier was also terrible, where he hit .210, 7 HR, with a .699 OPS and ranked 21st among third basemen.
For those of you that are school-girl giddy on Frazier hitting in a new offense, beware that the White Sox were actually two spots lower in the MLB rankings than the Reds in runs scored. Frazier's power numbers were low away from Cincinnati in 2015, but luckily U.S. Cellular Field was fifth in the league in 2015 HR by ballpark.
The biggest benefit of the new scenery is having potential lineup protection. But if he is hitting behind Melky Cabrera and Jose Abreu in 2016, then Brett Lawrie and Adam LaRoche squash that hope. Also, for what it's worth, in 298 career PA against American League pitchers Frazier has hit .205, with only eight HR and a .606 OPS.
Matt Carpenter STL, 30 (11th Round) Score: 57.73
2015: 101 R, 28 HR, 84 RBI, 4 SB, .272 BA
Following the third base trend as well, Matt Carpenter had a power-filled season in 2015. The Cardinal set career highs in HR, RBI, ISO (.233), and SLG (.505). The 28 HR more than doubled his previous high of 11, while the .233 ISO was well above his previous high of .169.
This was a completely different Carpenter than we had ever seen. His batted ball statistics resembled that of an elite power hitter. His 0.71 GB/FB ratio was the lowest he had ever posted, and was fourth lowest in the league. He owned the second lowest GB%, and the second highest LD% in the league. Not only was Carpenter able to keep his batted balls off of the ground, but he was hitting them harder than he ever has before (36.8 HARD%). He tied Matt Kemp for sixth lowest Soft%, ranking directly behind sluggers Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Cabrera. This extra pop led to almost doubling his career HR/FB% average. 
Unlike Frazier, Carpenter caught fire in the second half of the season. After the break, he hit 19 HR. His second half ISO (.312) and OPS (.950) both ranked second among third basemen. His GB/FB ratio dropped even further, down to the second lowest in the league, even lower than David Ortiz and Edwin Encarnacion. He continued to punish the ball, leading the league with a 8.4 Soft%, and raised his Hard% and HR/FB% to 40.0 and 21.8 respectively.
Carpenter was one of only three third basemen to score over 100 R in 2015. Thanks to a keen on base ability (position leading 12.2 BB%), and his entrenched place at the top of the Cardinal's lineup, this will carry on into 2016. His 57.73 Keeper Valuation score is respectable, but unfortunately gets overshadowed in the offensively loaded third base position. He did make 11 appearances at second base, so for many fantasy leagues that means he will carry the dual position eligibility over to this year. Among second basemen, his Keeper Valuation score cracks the top five. So if you are going to keep Carpenter, it makes more sense to have him fill your second base spot rather than the hot corner.
Adrian Beltre TEX, 36 (Third Round) Score: Negative
2015: 83 R, 18 HR, 83 RBI, SB, .287 BA
Let's all ease up on Beltre. Sure he had his worst season offensively since 2009, but among players over the age of 35, he owned the highest WAR (4.6). This mostly came from his stellar defense, but offensively he still ranked fourth. He played his fewest G since 2011, thanks to spending nearly a month on the disabled list in June. In the mean time, we were introduced to Joey Gallo.
With assistance from his walker, Beltre crept to the All Star Break. At the time, he was hitting a miserable .255 with only 7 HR, 22 RBI, .685 OPS, and an old man's 18.8 Soft%. Many began to believe we were witnessing the handing over of the torch at third base for the Rangers. But upon activation from the DL, Beltre proved yet again that age is just a number.
In the last three months of the season, Beltre was fifth in the league with 61 RBI. He looked exactly as we expected when drafting him in the third round of 2015 drafts. He hit .318 with 11 HR, .884 OPS, and cut that Soft% in half (9.6). The icing on the cake; it was made public after the season that he had accomplished all of this with a torn ligament in his thumb. This could very well explain the sapped power, and career high LD% (22.7).
Adrian Beltre has scar tissue removed from left thumb - ESPN https://t.co/You4uPIJEB
— Te Rangers Tweet (@TeRangersTweet) October 24, 2015
Do not let the age deter you in 2016. Beltre will be fantasy relevant until the day he decides to hang up his cleats. He will continue to hit cleanup for a Rangers offense that ranked third in the MLB in runs scored, and sits near the top of many experts' 2016 power rankings. With this being said, expectations must still be lowered as his age and injury risk rises to the top of the league. A third round 2015 ADP makes it a no-brainer to release Beltre back into the draft pool, as there is no potential value at that cost.
Kyle Seager SEA, 28 (Sixth Round) Score: Negative
2015: 85 R, 26 HR, 74 RBI, 6 SB, .266 BA
Look at that, another third basemen posting his best career power numbers. Kyle Seager set career highs in R, HR, and OPS (.779) in 2015. But other than hitting a few extra HR, it was quite a disappointing year for the 28 year old.
Introducing Mr. Reverse Splits. Despite only accounting for one-third of his total PA, Seager hit the same amount of HR off southpaws as RHP in 2015. His 13 HR was actually the most in the league against LHP by a LHB. His BA against lefties was .297 compared to only .249 versus righties. He was also atrocious when playing at Safeco Field. At home Seager only hit 7 HR with 25 RBI, .237 BA, .678 OPS, and a .132 ISO. When playing away he hit 19 HR with 49 RBI, .295 BA, .876 OPS, and a .235 ISO. His worst split however, was his situational hitting. Seager was dead last in the league hitting with RISP, with a horrific .179 BA. This led to his lowest RBI total since 2011, and being removed from the fifth spot in the lineup.
If Seager's PA all came against LHP, away from Safeco, with the bases empty, his keeper score would have been fantastic. But we live in the real world, and all absurd humor aside, he has plenty to work on at the plate before he is worthy of a keeper selection at a sixth round cost. The only keeping fantasy owners should be concerned with in regards to Kyle Seager is keeping far away during keeper selections.
Maikel Franco PHI, 23 (Undrafted) Score: 30.80
2015: 45 R, 14 HR, 50 RBI, SB, .280 BA
After a May 15 call-up, Franco was having an excellent rookie campaign until a HBP broke his wrist in August. In fact, he was on pace to lead all rookies in HR based on his HR per every 23.93 PA pace. Kris Bryant hit a HR every 25 PA. Franco showed flashes of greatness offensively prior to the injury, hitting .352 with eight HR, 24 RBI, with a 1.039 OPS in the month of June. He surprised with his ability at the plate aside from the power we were all fully aware of. His .360 wOBA was top ten among rookies.
Based on his minus eight Defensive Runs Saved in 2015, Franco is not quite suited to man the hot corner at the big league level. Many believe that when/if Ryan Howard ever leaves town, Franco will slide on over to first base to replace him. This obviously won't affect fantasy eligibility this year or 2017, but is worth noting for dynasty league owners.
If you own Franco in a keeper league, spending a late round penalty on him is going to be worth the speculation, alone, of what he can do over a full season. If the limited action in 2015 is any indicator, 2016 will be a great year offensively for the future fantasy star.
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