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These rankings are derived from my 15 step formula. The Keeper Valuation Formula uses the players’ age, draft round, number of teams in the league, current stats, projected stats, games played percentage, positional value, and some secret squirrel statistical math. The product is a true Keeper Value for each player.
Consider the derived Values the same as a discount sales sticker at the supermarket. Essentially, my keeper values are the amount of discount a fantasy owner is gaining or NOT gaining by keeping a specific player at a specific draft round. The values range from 0-100. The values can also be negative for players who will not give fantasy owners the same value in 2016 that they paid for in 2015. For these specific rankings, 12 team, 5x5 scoring, 23 man roster, Rotisserie league settings were used.
If you like this type of column, be sure to also check out the rest of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings articles. You can find the rest of my keeper values articles, prospect/dynasty rankings, positional tiers and more in one easy place.
2016 Top Third Base Keeper Values
1. Manny Machado BAL, 23 (10th Round) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 104.85
2015 Stats: 102 R, 35 HR, 86 RBI, 20 SB, .286 BA
After multiple knee injuries led to only 82 G in 2014, it seemed that the fantasy baseball world forgot the promising talent Manny Machado flashed in 2013. He dropped all the way down to the 10th round in fantasy drafts, before blossoming into a fantasy star in 2015.
In the All-Star season, he set career highs in all five standard categories, and led all third basemen in SB. His 6.8 WAR was sixth highest in the league. It seemed as if Machado took the time on the DL in 2014 to really hone in his technique at the plate. In 2015, he more than doubled his previous BB/K ratio, raised his contact rate up to 84.3% (from 78.2%), and swung at pitches outside the strike zone 10.4% less than in 2014.
There was nothing fluky about 2015 for Machado. His .297 BABIP and 17.5 HR/FB% are both in line with previous season averages. He drastically dropped his GB/FB ratio which, mixed with a healthy lower half, contributed to the outburst of power.
Despite where they are at in their respective career paths, Machado is actually younger than Kris Bryant. So obviously there is still plenty of room for improvement in his already impressive game. He hit lead off for the Baltimore Orioles for the majority of 2015, which will cap his RBI potential, but will lead to an elite source of R in 2016 if placed there again. The incredible 104.85 Keeper Value will be one of the highest scores out of the entire league this year, so if you own Machado, you are absolutely keeping him.
2. Kris Bryant CHC, 24 (Eighth Round) Score: 101.09
2015 stats: 87 R, 26 HR, 99 RBI, 13 SB, .275 BA
April 17, 2015, a day that will be etched into Chicago sports history. After a short and controversial delay, this was the day highly touted prospect, Bryant, was finally called up to the Cubs. It was quite a rookie season for the 24-year-old, as he was voted to the NL All-Star team and awarded the NL Rookie of the Year.
Bryant was everything we expected, plus some. His 6.5 WAR was the highest by any rookie third baseman since Albert Pujols in 2001. He led all rookies in R, RBI, and OBP (.369), and tied Joc Pederson for most HR. The 26 HR surprised no one, considering he hit 43 across two minor league levels in 2014, but his contribution to our fantasy teams in all five categories was a great early Christmas gift. Bryant flaunted an 11.8 BB%, .371 wOBA, and a .858 OPS, showing an excellent ability to get on base for a youngster.
The power is very real, and there will be even more of it in 2016. Bryant's .213 ISO was over 100 points lower than either of his two seasons in the minors. He hit a ton of fly balls (45.2 FB%), which is great news considering he hit the ball harder than any other third baseman in the league (37.5 Hard%). Also, his 15.8 HR/FB% was fairly low for a player with Bryant's raw power, which again points towards more long balls this year.
The one area where fantasy owners should curb their expectations in 2016 is the BA. First of all, Bryant was second in the league for most strikeouts (199), which was the most by a rookie in a season EVER. It was also 47 strikeouts higher than the next third baseman on the list. Secondly, he owned the lowest contact rate in the league, connecting on only 66.3% of his swings. Lastly, his respectable .275 BA in 2015 came with a ridiculous .378 BABIP. He always owned a similar BABIP in the minors, but especially now that defenses have scouting reports and Bryant's spray charts (showing a 41.6 Pull%), it would be incredibly difficult to repeat such a high number. But even despite an inevitable drop in BA, the counting stats will definitely be there again in 2016 (plus more HR) as he hits in the heart of one of the most dangerous offenses in the league.
The best has yet to come for Bryant. Fantasy owners should buckle up, its going to be an exciting ride. Keeper valuation scores of over 100 are few and far between, and so are young stars like Bryant.
3. Nolan Arenado COL, 24 (Fifth Round) Score: 93.55
2015 Stats: 97 R, 42 HR, 130 RBI, 2 SB, .287 BA
Big things were expected from the Colorado Rockies young third baseman in 2015. Much like Machado, Nolan Arenado delivered in a powerful way . He broke out and led the league in RBI and all third basemen in HR, ISO (.287), and SLG (.575). Despite his inability to draw walks, and a keen ability to strikeout (0.31 BB/K ratio), he still owned a respectable .371 wOBA and 4.5 WAR.
He quickly became the pulse of the Rockies lineup and was as dependable as they come in 2015. With RISP, Arenado hit .376 with a jaw-dropping 1.164 OPS. The power surge seemed to come out of no where, considering his highest season home run total was in 2011, when he hit 26 across two levels of the minor leagues. Despite the quick emergence, do not be tricked into discrediting the numbers.
Arenado plays half his games at Coor Field, which as all baseball fans have come to learn, is extreme offense friendly due to the thin air. But with a 35.8 hard hit rate, Arenado did not need help from barometric conditions. To prove it, he surprisingly hit 22 of his 42 bombs away from Coors in 2015. His 18.5% HR/FB% was seven points higher than in 2014, but it doesn't look fluky. Since 2013, he has steadily decreased his GB/FB ratio, developing into a true power hitter, and it's not as if he was only hitting balls over the fence. Arenado was one of only two players in the league to hit at least 40 HR and 40 2Bs. (Arenado must be broke, because I'm not seeing much green on this spray chart)
Last season was no fluke. He took a large step forward in his maturation as a hitter. He will not do you any favors in the SB category, but hopefully fantasy owners aren't leaning on the third base position for production there. His BA is in no jeopardy considering his BABIP was three points lower (.284), yet he loses a bit of value in OBP leagues with a small 5.1 BB%.
The bottom line: 42 HR is difficult to repeat for any player, but 2016 will still be another offensively loaded year for Arenado. He will hit in the heart of the Rockies lineup, half of the time in Coors field, and continue his fantasy dominance. Receiving first round output in exchange for a fifth round cost? Sign me up.
4. Miguel Sano MIN, 22 (Undrafted) Score: 87.61
2015 Stats: 46 R, 18 HR, 52 RBI, SB, .269 BA
After missing all of 2014 with Tommy John surgery, Miguel Sano finally got his chance in the MLB after a July call up in 2015. Let's just say the surgery is well behind him. In 335 PA, he led all rookies with at least 300 PA in OBP (.385), wOBA (.392), OPS (916), and wRC+ (151). The youngster's approach at the plate is very similar to that of former star Adam Dunn, which is composed of three possible outcomes: he draws a walk (15.8 BB%), strikes out (league leading 35.5 K%), or hits a home run.
In fact, Dunn's career BB and K percentages were very alike, 15.8% and 28.6% respectively. However, Dunn's career BA was much lower at .237. This is much closer to what should be expected from Sano's BA moving forward, considering he owned an insane .396 BABIP that ranked second in the league (min. 300 PA), a full 127 points higher than his BA.
While the 2015 BA should not be trusted, Sano's power is all too real. His .530 SLG and .262 ISO were both second among rookies, and his 43.2 hard hit rate trailed only the monster that is Giancarlo Stanton. He registered a high HR/FB% (26.5%), but with multiple 80 raw power ratings, it is still too early to consider this too high for Sano. He hit the ball harder than anyone in the league besides Stanton. Stanton's HR/FB% was 32.1%, so there is hope. Even Major League pitchers are already fully aware of the threat Sano poses, throwing him the third lowest FB% in the league last season.
At just 22 years old, there are still many flaws with Sano. He owned the lowest Contact% in the league at 60.9%. This was four points lower than Mr. Whiff himself, Chris Carter. His 119 SO in just 335 PA would have easily translated to a league leading total over a full season, and he hit only .224 with a .775 OPS away from Target Field. But he will get every chance in the world to work on these weaknesses, as the Twins are fully committed to maximizing his AB in 2016.
In order for this to happen, he will be trying out left field this spring. Regardless of where he plays in the field, he will bat cleanup, and will be the main source of power for the Twins and many fantasy teams this season. The road may be rough for stretches as he becomes accustomed to big league pitching, but if your league is even slightly lenient on the penalties of keeping an undrafted player, the Keeper Formula shows the ride will be well worth it.
Rough depth chart for Twins with WAR projections c/o @DSzymborski. Whole entire post tomorrow at FanGraphs. pic.twitter.com/yHv1ahMChc
— Carson Cistulli (@cistulli) January 6, 2016
5. Josh Donaldson TOR, 30 (Second Round) Score: 85.73
2015 Stats: 122 R, 41 HR, 123 RBI, 6 SB, .297 BA
In his first year as a Blue Jay, Josh Donaldson exploded with a career year on his way to winning the American League MVP award. He led the league in R, was second in RBI, and his 8.7 WAR was the third highest. Donaldson was simply amazing in every aspect. He boasted a .271 ISO, .371 OBP, .568 SLG, .398 wOBA, and 154 wRC+, all career highs. He became the first player since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 to hit at least 100 1B, 40 2B, and 40 HR in a season. He also was the first player since Albert Pujols in 2009 to accumulate at least 120 R and 120 RBI in a season.
Like stated previously, Josh Donaldson excelled across the board in 2015. He terrorized pitchers all year, crushing both fastballs (third highest wFB) and off speed pitches (second highest wCH). With RISP, he was even filthier, hitting .353 with a 1.058 OPS. That is how you plate 123 RBI out of the two hole in the batting order. It was an unbelievable season, and to win the MVP award in a league that contains Mike Trout and Cabrera, more than proves that.
Donaldson is the hands down best third baseman in the league. There is nothing barring a fluke injury stopping him from repeating, or even topping, his MVP fantasy numbers in 2016. The entire Toronto lineup is a nightmare, and keeping Donaldson will secure you a top five player at a second round cost. His 85.73 Keeper Formula score despite the high ADP shows the caliber of player Donaldson has become, but his fifth place keeper ranking among third basemen also shows how young and deep the position currently is. But seriously, what were the Oakland Athletics thinking?
"Mr. Beane, Josh just won the MVP award."
2016 Keeper Value Rankings:
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