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Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in Week 13 of the 2025 season? Andrew's potential fantasy football busts to avoid in Week 13 fantasy football lineups.
Happy Thanksgiving, RotoBallers! Let's all feast on football.
Not including the smorgasbord of college football rivalry games, we have three Thanksgiving games, a Black Friday battle, and the regularly scheduled Sunday and Monday contests. And, best of all, there are no bye weeks.
Below, we sort through the stats and find 10 fantasy football busts, or players who may disappoint, for Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Javonte Williams (RB, DAL) vs. Kansas City (Thursday)
It's been three weeks since Javonte Williams scored a touchdown. He's been scantily used in the passing game since CeeDee Lamb returned to the lineup, totaling six catches in five games.
Essentially, he's a non-PPR king (that's not a good title, by the way). The ground yardage has been fine: 83, 93, and 87 yards, so he's not completely killing fantasy managers. But he's not the RB1/2 who surprised the fantasy football community early in the season.
In fantasy football, we don't want to rely on ground-game points against the Kansas City Chiefs. They've allowed the fourth-fewest yards and six total touchdowns in 11 games. Plus, the Cowboys couldn't be clearer about their offensive game plan this week, and it's not feeding Williams.
Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer on CeeDee Lamb this week: “He’s got that look in his eye that (he) means business. He’s ready to play. There will be plenty of balls going to 88 Thursday afternoon.” pic.twitter.com/gAh9pffBMB
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) November 25, 2025
Consider Williams a mid-tier RB2, with a high likelihood of a stat line that non-PPR fantasy managers won't be upset about, but the PPR folks will be.
Kareem Hunt (RB, KC) at Dallas (Thursday)
When fantasy managers set their lineups, they tend to look at two things: past performances and the matchup. Well, Kareem Hunt is coming off a 20-point day against Indianapolis, and the Dallas Cowboys surrender the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. On paper, this sets up as a dream matchup.
Well, let's start with the defense. Since the bye week (and the flurry of trades that landed Dallas defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson), the Cowboys' run defense is markedly improved. Ashton Jeanty and Saquon Barkley combined for 52 rushing yards on 1.17 and 2.2 yards per carry, respectively. In their first nine games, six opponents averaged four yards per carry or more. Cowboys opponents are at 4.6 yards per attempt this season.
Barkley and Jeanty made up for the lack of rushing production by catching six and seven passes (don't meme me), respectively. That's not Hunt's backfield role. Brashard Smith catches the designed routes out of the backfield.
Hunt also isn't getting 30 carries this week, or probably ever again. Isiah Pacheco (knee) is back in the lineup on Thanksgiving and ready to siphon some touches. Hunt will still be the goal-line back and could fall into the end zone, but the volume is shaky.
Caleb Williams (QB, CHI) at Philadelphia (Friday)
Caleb Williams has fully taken advantage of a favorable schedule. He's faced six teams inside the top 10 for most points allowed to the quarterback position. He's averaging 25 fantasy points per game in those contests. That number is almost cut in half (13.1) for the other five games.
That's separating him from the goods from the greats in the fantasy football realm. Drake Maye torched the third-ranked Cleveland defense. Dak Prescott got the best of the Philadelphia defense, the same matchup Williams will get this week. However, the Chicago offense is not nearly on the same level as Dallas'.
Despite the blip in Dallas, the Eagles should still be viewed as one of the league's premier defenses. Given Williams' history this season, the trend of mediocre performances against good defenses could continue.
Colston Loveland (TE, CHI) at Philadelphia (Friday)
Things we love to see: Colston Loveland has a healthy snap and route participation rate, even with Cole Kmet returning to the lineup. The rookie is now fully entrenched as Chicago's TE1 and continues to develop a rapport with quarterback Caleb Williams.
Bears QB Caleb Williams on his growing rapport with Colston Loveland: "He’s a safe target. He’s a reliable target. And his body language when he’s running routes is very similar to a wide receiver. It’s very smooth. It speaks to me very easily. I know when he’s breaking down,…
— Dan Wiederer (@danwiederer) November 25, 2025
Still, most of his fantasy production is touchdown-dependent. Since his breakout Cincinnati game, he's earned four, four, and five targets and caught all but one in each game. Fantasy managers streaming the position aren't going to fret over eight or nine PPR points, but it's not winning matchups, that's for sure.
Those eight or nine points came in positive matchups. Black Friday's matchup against Philadelphia is not that. The Eagles have given up the second-fewest yards and just two touchdowns to the position. It's a matchup we've avoided often in this article, and it hasn't failed us yet. Stream elsewhere.
Rico Dowdle (RB, CAR) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Rico Dowdle isn't single-handedly winning games like he was in the middle of the fantasy football season, but he's still been a startable fantasy asset. He's scored double-digit PPR points in every game since he reclaimed the starting job from Chuba Hubbard, even though the Panthers mysteriously went away from him on Monday, despite ripping off over six yards a carry and nine yards a catch.
#Panthers RB Rico Dowdle said he posted the 😵💫 out of frustration. He felt like they could have had run success against the 49ers because they weren’t stacking the box.
He said Dave Canales addressed the play calling with the team, he said they needed to run more and Dowdle was… pic.twitter.com/IwpVCkD7du
— Mike Kaye (@mike_e_kaye) November 26, 2025
The Panthers may get away from Dowdle for a different reason on Sunday. The game has a 10.5-point spread at the time of this writing, and Carolina could be without top cornerback Jaycee Horn (concussion) and will be down starting safety Tre'von Moehrig (suspension). Los Angeles already has one of the deadliest passing attacks in football.
The Rams are also one of just two teams to allow only three total touchdowns to the running back position.
So, the odds tell us that Dowdle won't find the end zone, and his team will be playing from behind. The Rams are beatable when opposing teams throw to running backs, but that damage will have to be done early for Dowdle. Hubbard has begun to play more snaps on third downs and in two-minute situations.
Aaron Jones Sr. (RB, MIN) at Seattle
Aaron Jones has tied for the second-most targets in each of Minnesota's last two games, as J.J. McCarthy stumbled through his starts and leaned on the checkdown. McCarthy (concussion) is unlikely to play this week, and undrafted rookie Max Brosmer is slated to start. While Brosmer has less experience than McCarthy, we won't know his checkdown tendencies until we see them.
That's the only saving grace for Jones this week, as the Seahawks allow the third-most receptions to the position. It makes it even more impressive that Seattle is 10th in fewest points allowed to runners. It's largely due to a league-low 3.4 yards per carry and six total touchdowns.
It's fair to wonder if that number may be even lower for Minnesota's lead back on Sunday. He may be without two offensive linemen, including left tackle Christian Darrisaw, and Seattle has every reason to stack the box against an inexperienced quarterback.
DK Metcalf (WR, PIT) vs. Buffalo
Aaron Rodgers (wrist) or not, the Steelers will want to run the football on Sunday.
The Steelers rushed more than they passed in the loss to Chicago in Week 12, even though they trailed for most of the second half. It made sense. Chicago was down its three starting linebackers, and the Steelers had a backup quarterback running the offense. Either Mason Rudolph is the starter again in Week 13, or Rodgers, with a broken left wrist, is under center. They'll be more conscious about protecting the 41-year-old.
That means more carries for Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, and there aren't many better matchups for them to do that. The Bills allow the third-most rushing yards per game (148.9).
That's not to say the Bills are a juggernaut in the secondary. The unit is actually middle of the pack for fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. But Metcalf hasn't been good against the softer secondaries (i.e., Cincinnati and Indianapolis) and hasn't topped 50 yards since Week 8.
In what projects to be a run-heavy game script, Metcalf should fall on the low end of the WR3 range.
Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, WAS) vs. Denver
For the most part, Marcus Mariota has been a downgrade for Deebo Samuel Sr. There's been some ups, like a 20-point day in Madrid just before the bye week, but there's also been several downs, like two 11-yard finishes in Weeks 3 and 8. He also had just 29 yards against the Lions in Week 10, which was saved by a touchdown.
That's the crux of the argument here: The Denver Broncos keep wide receivers out of the end zone. Two wideouts have found paydirt, and you'll never guess their names.
Ok, fine, I'll tell you. It was Keenan Allen and ... Jalen Tolbert! Even without All-Pro and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II, the Broncos are still one of the stingiest secondaries in the NFL. Rashee Rice couldn't even muster 40 yards.
Surtain is practicing again, albeit in a limited fashion. His potential return to the lineup could make this nightmare matchup even more difficult for Samuel. Guess who else is also practicing? Terry McLaurin!
I think Terry McLaurin has his burst back.
Great to see number 17 at practice again. pic.twitter.com/Yhzm1Dd5y9
— Scott Abraham (@Scott7news) November 26, 2025
Samuel may not even be Mariota's preferred target anymore. There isn't a single Commander I'd be excited about starting this week.
Daniel Jones (QB, IND) vs. Houston
Week 12 showcased Daniel Jones' duality. He led the Colts to touchdowns on their first two drives in Kansas City before failing to score again. In the second half, there were repeated three-and-outs. By the end of the game, he had his lowest completion percentage and yardage total of the season.
That wasn't a total surprise. Jones has played much better at home and has struggled recently against good defenses. He is at home this week, but the defense he's facing causes problems for everyone, including Josh Allen.
The Texans rank first in fewest points to opposing fantasy quarterbacks. It should come as no surprise that they also rank third against wide receivers and sixth against tight ends. To that point, it's going to be tough to trust Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman Jr. again as well.
#Colts QB Daniel Jones against the blitz splits, per PFF:
Weeks 1-8: 63-99 (63.6%), 869 passing yards (8.8 YPA), 6 TDs, 0 INTs. 4.3% pressure-to-sack rate (1st)
Weeks 9-12: 24-41 (58.5%), 296 passing yards (7.2 YPA), 1 TD, 1 INT. 27.3% pressure-to-sack rate (23rd)
— Noah Compton (@nerlens_) November 26, 2025
The engine of Houston's defense is the elite pass rush. Jones frequently turned the ball over when the best pressure rate teams got in his face (see Atlanta and Pittsburgh games). That's what I'm expecting again in this AFC South divisional duel.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF) at Cleveland
This has nothing to do with Brock Purdy's three-interception first half against Carolina (although that certainly wasn't pretty). Until Monday, the San Francisco offense, with or without Purdy, has been humming along now that the skill-position players are healthy.
The Cleveland Browns have one of the league's best defenses, especially when it comes to fantasy football quarterbacks. They're currently third in the league and second over the past four weeks.
But more importantly, it's that time of the season when we need to pay attention to the weather. Forecasts can change, but it's predicted to be cold and windy with plenty of precipitation on Sunday. For a quarterback with below-average arm strength, that could mean checkdowns aplenty and diminished scoring.
The last time Purdy played in Cleveland (2023), he threw for 125 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Without byes, there are easily 12 other quarterbacks worth starting over Purdy this week.
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