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Week 12 of the 2020 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Josh Allen, Cam Akers, Kyle Rudolph and more.
Week 12 was a little frustrating for quarterbacks with Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray all finishing outside the top-10. Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes finished as the top-two quarterbacks on the week, while the main surprise was Mitch Trubisky who relied on garbage-time production to finish as QB-6. Robert Tonyan returned to relevance in Week 12 finishing as the No. 2 tight end on the week. Overall, the tight end position was fairly predictable this week with Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson and Hunter Henry all finishing inside the top-10.
Deebo Samuel returned to the 49ers lineup in Week 12 and came through as WR-8 on the week against a Rams Defense that's given up the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. For the most part the studs came through with the exception of DeAndre Hopkins who had a brutal matchup against Tre'Davious White. Michael Thomas came back down to earth after a solid Week 11 performance, but that was mainly due to the conservative nature of the Saints game plan because they were playing against a Broncos team that didn't have a quarterback.
Derrick Henry, Antonio Gibson, James Robinson and Nick Chubb all exploded in Week 12, finishing as the top-four running backs on the week. The Saints took an extremely conservative approach on offense because the Broncos couldn't score, which led to Latavius Murray seeing 19 carries on his way to an RB-5 finish. The main disappointments at running back this week included Josh Jacobs and Dalvin Cook who both hurt their ankles. Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara also came up small, mainly because they didn't see a lot of volume this week. Now that Week 12 is behind us, let's take a look at some of these unexpected performances and evaluate whether these guys will continue to produce moving forward.
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Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Week 12 Stats: 18-of-24 passing, 157 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 9 carries, 32 yards, 1 TD
In Week 12 the Bills ran just 58 offensive plays compared to 79 for the Chargers. The Bills controlled this game throughout which meant they didn't need to put the ball in the air down the stretch, resulting in 30 rushes versus just 24 passes.
Bottom Line: Josh Allen will be fine, the Bills simply didn't need to throw a lot in this contest. The Bills play against the 49ers in Week 13 who have a solid rush defense which means Allen will likely need to air it out.
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
Week 12 Stats: 15 targets, 13 catches, 269 yards, 3 TD
Early in the first quarter Patrick Mahomes threw up a bomb to Tyreek Hill who hauled it in, and then evaded the Buccaneers defensive backs on his way into the end-zone. Shortly thereafter Hill found himself open for another catch-and-run for a touchdown. By the end of the first quarter, Tyreek Hill had seven catches for 203 yards and two touchdowns. The Buccaneers have the best run defense in the league which means the Chiefs were destined to throw the ball a ton anyways, but nobody saw this coming.
Bottom Line: Over his last four games Tyreek Hill has been on an absolute tear, hauling in 37 catches for 582 yards and eight touchdowns. Hill will likely keep his hot-streak going in Week 13 against the Broncos who will have a quarterback on their active roster by that time. Tyreek Hill is now the No. 1 receiver on the season and a performance like this likely makes him a lock to be a first round pick in 2021 fantasy drafts.
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns
Week 12 Stats: 11 targets, 8 catches, 143 yards, 1 TD
The Jaguars were competitive against the Browns in Week 12 and forced Baker Mayfield to put the ball in the air 29 times. Landry has had some great matchups over the last few weeks but this is the first one that he's actually been able to take advantage of. Prior to Week 12 Landry failed to eclipse 100 yards in any game, and he has only exceeded 50 yards one time.
Bottom Line: The Jaguars Defense was depleted this week so it's no surprise that Landry came through. The Browns face the Titans in Week 13 who have been struggling against the pass so it's possible he comes through two weeks in a row, but don't get too crazy and play Landry over a receiver that's been consistently getting it done for you.
Collin Johnson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 12 Stats: 8 targets, 4 catches, 96 yards, 1 TD
D.J. Chark and Chris Conley missed Week 12 which elevated Collin Johnson into a full-time role in the Jaguars offense. Johnson played 80% of the Jaguars snaps on Sunday and filled in quite nicely, hauling in a 46-yard touchdown. Prior to Week 12 Johnson's season-high in snaps was just 30.7%. Keelan Cole is not a legitimate X-receiver and cannot be the go-to guy in an offense. Johnson has the size and athleticism to be a No. 1 and may continue to be relevant down the stretch is Chark and Conley miss more time.
Bottom Line: Pay attention to reports out of Jacksonville this week, because if Johnson has earned more playing time, he will be a viable option down the stretch. Johnson is worth a flier in dynasty or keeper formats and is worth an add in deeper leagues. However, if Chark or Conley return to the lineup, Johnson may not be relevant for the remainder of 2020.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Week 12 Stats: 27 carries, 178 yards, 3 TD, 4 targets, 2 catches, 7 yards
Derrick Henry ran wild against the Colts in Week 12 which was a much different story from the Week 10 matchup. The Colts were missing DeForest Buckner and Denico Autry on defense which negatively impacted their ability to stop the run.
Bottom Line: It's common knowledge that Derrick Henry is a good football player, but this bottom line applies more to the Colts Defense than Henry. The Colts have been solid against the run all season, but they were clearly a different unit without DeForest Buckner in the game. Do not be misled by Henry's performance against the Colts, they are not a defense you want to target when making running back start/sit decisions.
Cam Akers, L.A. Rams
Week 12 Stats: 9 carries, 84 yards, 1 TD
In Week 12 Darrell Henderson played 32.3% of the Rams offensive snaps, compared to 40.3% for Malcom Brown and 27.4% for Cam Akers. While Akers came through for fantasy, he had eight carries for 23 yards if you take away his 61-yard run. The Rams running back situation is a difficult one to navigate, but Akers appears to have a little bit more burst than Henderson since he hurt his leg a few weeks ago.
Bottom Line: If you held on to Akers this far into the season then good for you. Don't get too crazy and play Akers over more proven options in Week 13, but if he sees an increase in playing time this week, he will likely be a viable option during the fantasy playoffs.
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
Week 12 Stats: 8 carries, 32 yards, 3 targets, 2 catches, 17 yards
The Bengals offense struggled all day against the Giants and actually scored one of their two touchdowns on a kick return. Until Brandon Allen gets comfortable in the Bengals offense, the entire unit will likely struggle and be hard to trust for fantasy purposes. As it stands right now, Mixon is set to return from injured-reserve in Week 14, so Bernard has limited time as a starter anyways.
Bottom Line: It's going to be tough to trust Bernard in Week 13 against the Miami Dolphins who have emerged as a serious contender in the AFC.
Evan Engram, N.Y. Giants
Week 12 Stats: 9 targets, 6 catches, 129 yards
Evan Engram had two forty-plus yard catches against the Bengals on Sunday, getting behind both Brandon Wilson and Vonn Bell in coverage. On the season the Bengals have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends, so it's no surprise that Engram had a huge game against them.
Bottom Line: Temper your expectations with Engram moving forward. Engram has exceeded 100 yards just once this season, he's scored just one touchdown, and Sunday marked just the third time he's gone over 60 yards receiving.
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
Week 12 Stats: 8 targets, 7 catches, 68 yards
Irv Smith Jr. and Adam Thielen were both inactive in Week 12 which led to Kyle Rudolph playing 78.1% of the Vikings offensive snaps, tying his season-high. Rudolph was one of Kirk Cousin's favorite targets on Sunday in a game where the Vikings had to throw the ball a lot to keep pace with the Panthers who put up 27 points.
Bottom Line: In Week 12 Rudolph saw season-highs in targets, catches and yards. If Thielen and Smith miss additional time, Rudolph will remain viable, but if either return to the lineup he will be irrelevant for fantasy purposes.
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