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What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find part one of our Week 11 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the first half of the Week 11 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Camus (@pfunk00).
Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
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Week 10 Matchup Analysis Recap
Greatest Hits: Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ), Carlos Hyde (RB, SF), Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)
Marshall, and the entire Jets offense for that matter, was terrible all game long against the Rams. Behind rookie QB Bryce Petty the team lost a 9-to-6 nail biter, with Marshall catching only four passes for 15 yards. This passing offense is a mess right now. Hyde has some troubles in his first game back, finding zero running room at all against the Cardinals. He ran 13 times for 14 yards (1.1 YPC) and did not catch a pass. He is in no danger of losing his starting RB spot, but that game will be a difficult one to re-watch for Hyde during the week. Fitz was dominant in the same game, catching 12 passes for 132 yards in the Cardinals win. He did leave the game after he sustained an injury, but it is not believed to be serious and he should be back this week.
Greatest Misses: Lance Kendricks (TE, LA), J.J. Nelson (WR, ARI), Julian Edelman (WR, NE)
I thought Kendricks would be a great sleeper TE play this week against the Jets, but boy was I wrong. Kendricks caught one pass for zero yards on the day, while Kenny Britt dominated the receiving game. Kendricks has had a good season, but performances like these keep him out of the rosterable TE conversation. After supplanting Michael Floyd in the rotation in prior weeks, he came back strong in Week 10 leaving Nelson in the dust. Floyd caught five passes for 101 yards, while Nelson caught only two passes for 29 yards on the day. Outside of Fitz, it is impossible to predict which receiver will go off for this team. Edelman had a solid game in the Patriots loss, catching seven passes for a season high 99 yards on the day. He also lost a fumble which hurt his fantasy performance, but the 99 yards were nice to see given his production this season overall.
Bills @ Bengals - Sunday 11/20 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
A.J. Green (WR, CIN)
The Bills have given up the 13th least fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, but that was fueled by a brief stretch of dominant games earlier in the season by the Bills secondary. Over the past three weeks they have been amongst the worst teams in the league at defending opposing WRs. Green has been one of the most dominant receivers in the league this season, on pace for 176 targets and over 1,700 yards receiving. The Bills will be fresh off the bye week, but after the loss of safety Aaron Williams this secondary has been a mess. Expect huge numbers again from Green this week against a struggling Bills defense.
Tyler Eifert (TE, CIN)
Over the Bengals past two games, Eifert has already re-established himself as one of the top targets for Andy Dalton in the passing game. After his first game back when he played a limited role, Eifert has received 17 targets over the past two weeks, second on the team to only Green (29 targets!). The Bills defense has limited opposing TEs to four receptions for 55 yards on average per game this season, however over the past two weeks they have been burned by Rod Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. Both TEs went over the 100 yard mark and each had at least one TD. Eifert is as big of a part to the Bengals offense as those TEs are to their respective offenses, meaning Eifert has all the tools for a productive outing on Sunday.
Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF)
The Bills will be coming into this one fresh off of their Bye week, but before the Bye Tyrod Taylor played his best game of the season against a tough Seattle defense. Taylor completed 27-of-38 passes (71%) for 289 yards with a TD and an INT, along with eight rushes for 43 yards and a TD. The 289 passing yards was his highest total since Week 2. The Bengals have struggled to contain opposing QBs, allowing the fifth most fantasy points to the position this season. They have allowed five passing TDs over the past two weeks, and have given up the fourth most passing TDs this season (19). The Bengals have yet to face a QB that can scramble like Taylor can, so they may have troubles containing him in the pocket. Even though he is missing some big weapons on offense, Taylor can put up fantasy points with his dual-threat ability.
Matchups We Hate
Jeremy Hill (RB, CIN)
Though the secondary for the Bills has been sub-par, their front seven has been solid at stopping the opponents run game. Outside of the 200-yard licking Jay Ajayi gave the Bills, they have been extremely good at limiting opposing RBs, holding them 86 yards rushing per game on average. Over the past two games they limited LeGarrette Blount to only 43 yards rushing, and Tyler Lockett to 13 yards. RBs have had a tough time with this defense all season long, with the only other 100-yard rusher against them needing 30 carries to get there (Matt Forte, Week 2). With Hill averaging only 13 carries per game this season, he won’t get enough volume to find much success on Sunday.
Notable Players
LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)
Before the Bye week against the Seahawks, you would never be able to tell McCoy suffered an injury at any point. After not playing in Week 8 against New England, McCoy returned in Week 9 and rushed 21 times for 85 yards (4.0 YPC) including four receptions for 35 yards. He was making cuts on a dime and making defenders miss tackles like Shady does when he’s healthy. With the Bye week now passed he should be at full health and ready to continue his dominant play. Cincinnati has given up the 12th most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, but what’s keeping him out of the ‘love’ category is the loss of center Eric Wood, who was placed on IR with a broken leg. Wood was an extremely important piece to the Bills offensive line, and it remains to be seen how his absence affects the run game.
Robert Woods (WR, BUF)
Woods was the Bills top receiving target before the Bye against Seattle, catching 10-of-13 targets for 162 yards. The Bills had a huge day offensively in the loss, looking more efficient on offense than they have all season long. Woods has been nursing a foot injury all season, though it didn’t seem to bother him much last game. With the Bye now over, Woods will be back at full health and will be ready to continue contributing. The Bengals have allowed the seventh least amount of fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, so even with the amount of volume Woods receives there isn’t a guarantee he has a good game against this stingy defense.
Cowboys @ Ravens - Sunday 11/20 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Dez Bryant (WR, DAL)
Since Dez Bryant’s return from injury after the bye week, he has led the team in targets with 27 over the last three games. Though he had one game where he caught 1-of-4 targets for 19 yards, in the other two games Bryant has caught a combined 10-of-23 targets for 229 yards and two scores. Dak Prescott is not afraid to look Bryant’s way often, even though Bryant had caught less than half his targets over the past three weeks. The Ravens defense has given up the 11th most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. With the volume of looks Dez is receiving, he should be a top-10 WR option moving forward.
Matchups We Hate
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Though the secondary of the Ravens is beatable, their front seven is much more formidable. They have given up the least amount of fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, allowing only 63.8 rushing yards per game to RBs. Though they were extremely successful at limiting Le’Veon Bell two weeks ago (32 rushing yards on 14 attempts), Elliott and the Cowboys offensive line is a different animal than anything the Ravens will face this season. If you own Elliott you’re starting him, and there’s more than a good chance he has an excellent game, like he has all season. On paper the matchup is less than ideal, but Elliott cannot be stopped this year.
Terrance West (RB, BAL)
The Ravens run defense has been the best in the league this season, but the Cowboys don’t lag too far behind. Dallas has given up the fifth least fantasy points to opposing RBs so far, limiting them to only 72 yards rushing per game this season. After a stretch of solid games, West has come back down to earth over the past three weeks. He is averaging 15 rushes for only 32 yards over that span, and has been losing some work to rookie RB Kenneth Dixon. Dixon played a big role in the passing game last week, catching five passes for 42 yards. With West losing some work and going against a tough run defense, things will be tough for him on Sunday.
Notable Players
Jason Witten (TE, DAL)
The Ravens have done an excellent job limiting TEs, allowing the third fewest points to the TE position this season. However, the only TE they have faced who is used as much as Witten is Jordan Reed, who caught eight passes for 53 yards back in Week 5. Witten has seen an average of seven targets, and has not seen his usage change with Dez Bryant’s return. If you own Witten and are worried about this matchup, you shouldn’t be. Expect a normal game from Witten; a good amount of catches for some decent yardage with a chance for a score.
Steve Smith Sr. (WR, BAL)
After missing two games before the Ravens Bye week, Smith has come back and picked up right where he left off. His 14 targets over the past two weeks lead the team. He has hauled in nine of those passes for 107 yards and a TD over the past two weeks. Dallas is no slouch at defending opposing WRs; they have given up the 14th fewest fantasy points to the position this season. However, over the past three weeks opposing WR1s have found success against this defense. With the run game lacking, Joe Flacco and the passing offense will need to lead the way if the Ravens stand any chance.
Titans @ Colts - Sunday 11/20 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Delanie Walker (TE, TEN)
Delanie Walker is coming off his finest performance of the year, catching 9-of-11 targets for 124 yards and a TD as the Titans beat the Packers 47-to-25. Over the past four weeks, Walker has been one of the top performing TEs in the league averaging six receptions for 81 yards with three TDs in four games. This week the Titans face the Colts, who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to the TE position this season. They were already torched by Walker once when he put up a line of 7-84-1 Week 7. Walker could end up being the top TE play this week given his usage in the offense and the matchup at hand.
DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN)
DeMarco Murray has been one of the most consistent top-level point producers in fantasy this season. He has scored double digit points in every single game this season, topping out at 30 in PPR formats last week. This week Murray faces a Colts defense he already ran all over, rushing 25 times for 107 yards and TD Week 7. He has scored a TD in five straight games, making Murray a no-brainer RB1 play this week.
T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND)
T.Y. Hilton leads the Colts in targets this season with 90, double what the next closest player has (Jack Doyle, 45). He has been Andrew Luck’s most reliable target all season long, hauling in 52 passes for 791 yards (15.2 YPR) with four TDs. His 17 plays of over 20 yards rank him second among WRs behind Julio Jones (21). Hilton has already burned this Titans secondary once, catching seven passes for 133 yards and a TD back in Week 7. This game is in Indianapolis, where the Colts are averaging 26 PPG this season. In what is expected to be a high scoring game, fire up Hilton with confidence.
Donte Moncrief (WR, IND)
In his two games since returning from injury, Moncrief leads the team in targets with 15, one more than Hilton has over the past two. Moncrief has made his presence felt immediately, hauling in a TD in each game he has played in. With the Bye week now come and gone, Moncrief can continue his scoring ways against a Titans defense giving up the 12th most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. The Colts will likely need to throw a good amount to keep up with the Titans improved offense, so deploy Moncrief safely this week.
Matchups We Hate
Frank Gore (RB, IND)
The Tennessee Titans have given up the ninth fewest fantasy points to the RB position this season, whch includes Melvin Gordon’s 196-yard performance against them in Week 9. Outside of that game, the Titans have been extremely good at limiting opposing RBs. Gore actually had one of the better games against this defense in Week 7, rushing 17 times for 61 yards. He also made an impact in the receiving game, catching five passes for 22 yards and a TD. Like that game, expect Gore to make an impact in the receiving game this week. Against a defense allowing only 80 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs, Gore will need to reach the end zone to save his fantasy day.
Notable Players
Rishard Matthews (WR, TEN)
Over the past four weeks, no WR has seen more targets from Marcus Mariota than Rishard Matthews. His 26 over that span are second only to Delanie Walker’s 33. Matthews has emerged at Mariota’s favorite WR target; Matthews has six TDs over the past six weeks, averaging four receptions for 51 yards per game. He has 63 yards receiving in each of the past two weeks as his involvement in the offense grows. While Walker and DeMarco Murray will garner most of the attention on offense, look for Matthews to likely lead the WR corps in looks again, with a good chance at a TD given the streak he has been on.
Steelers @ Browns - Sunday 11/20 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Antonio Brown (WR, PIT)
No matter how you game plan as a defense, there is really no good way to stop Antonio Brown. Not when he’s second in the league in targets (104), not when he’s on pace for over 100 receptions and 1,400 yards for the fourth straight season, and especially not when Ben Roethlisberger is healthy and throwing his way. Against a Browns defense that has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, Brown is going to absolutely feast.
Le’Veon Bell (RB, PIT)
Bell was finally able to reach the end zone last week, doing so twice for his first two scores of the season in the loss to Dallas. He gained 134 total yards on 26 touches, lining up as a RB and WR throughout the game. Bell has seen a large increase in his usage in the passing game this season; he is on pace for 80 receptions, which would be his most since he caught 83 in 16 games played in 2014. The Browns have given up the second most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs this season, allowing 129 rushing yards per game to the position this season.
Terrelle Pryor Sr. (WR, CLE)
Even with the underwhelming QB play of Cody Kessler, Pryor is having an amazing fantasy season given where he was drafted in most leagues. Pryor is the 12th rated WR in PPR formats, lining up mainly as a WR but has also taken snaps at RB and QB this season. His 92 targets are far and away the most on the team, with the next closest player being RB Duke Johnson at 54. The Steelers have given up the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, but over the past two weeks have been burned by Mike Wallace and Dez Bryant for over 100 yards and a TD each. I expect the WR1 for Cleveland to also find success in this matchup.
Matchups We Hate
Corey Coleman (WR, CLE)
In the two games since his return, Coleman is second on the team with 12 targets. Unfortunately, he has turned those into only six catches for 58 yards total. He and Kessler can’t seem to get much going right now, and it likely has to do with all the time Coleman missed due to injury. Things won’t get easier against the Steelers this week, who have done a better job limiting opposing WR2s; in the same games Bryant and Wallace went off, Steve Smith Sr. and Cole Beasley combined to catch nine passes for 80 yards. Even if the Kessler-to-Coleman connection improves this week, there isn’t a high ceiling here.
Notable Players
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)
Other than this game being on the road in Cleveland, everything sets up well for Roethlisberger. The Browns have given up the second most fantasy points to QBs this season, and Big Ben has done well against Cleveland in his career. Against them he has a 20-and-2 record with a 35:17 TD:INT ratio. The only thing holding me back from putting him in the ‘love’ section of this is that this game isn’t in Pittsburgh. His struggles on the road are real, but if the Steelers plan on going anywhere this season he will need to find a way to get it done.
Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE)
Right up there in fantasy points allowed to RBs with Cleveland are the Steelers, who are right behind them at number three. The Steelers are allowing 96 yards rushing per game, on top of 59 receiving yards to opposing RBs. Crowell has dominated the carries in the backfield over Duke Johnson all season long, although he is averaging only 12 rushes per game this season. Over the past five weeks specifically, he is averaging only nine per game. Crowell is capable of having a solid game, but he may not get enough looks to be relevant.
Jaguars @ Lions - Sunday 11/20 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Theo Riddick (RB, DET)
Riddick has been an excellent dual threat RB this season for the Lions, and has been particularly effective over the past three weeks. Riddick is averaging 97 yards from scrimmage with three receiving TDs over the past three games. The Lions are heading out of their Bye week, giving Riddick some extra time to heal up his injured ankle. A healthy Riddick will be too much for the Jaguars to handle, who have been in the middle of the pack at limiting opposing RBs. There aren’t too many backs that can run and catch as well as Riddick can; even with Dwayne Washington getting in for a few plays it won’t ruin Riddick’s fantasy day.
Julius Thomas (TE, JAX)
Thomas saw the most targets he has seen in one game all season last week, when he caught 6-of-10 targets for 24 yards and a TD. While the six catches were second on the team, it has now been six straight weeks for Thomas with less than 30 receiving yards. If not for his three TDs in the past four weeks, this stretch of games would be a killer for fantasy owners. The Lions may give Thomas more room to operate compared to other teams; they have given up the second most fantasy points to the TE position this season, with TEs averaging six receptions for 58 yards and a TD against them per game. If Thomas can stay close to those 10 targets he received last game, he has a chance for success on Sunday.
Allen Robinson (WR, JAX)
After failing to top 75 receiving yards through the Jaguars first seven games of the season, Robinson has finally done so in back to back games. Last week was his finest showing of the season, securing 9-of-13 targets for 107 yards and his second TD in two weeks. Robinson has been a target machine all season long, ranking seventh in the league in targets. He should now be back in the WR1 conversation, especially against a Lions defense that was burned by Stefon Diggs last week. Start Robinson now that he has built up a little consistency over his past two games.
Matchups We Hate
Chris Ivory (RB, JAX)
Ivory and T.J. Yeldon have been splitting carries in the Jaguars backfield since Ivory’s return from his illness. After Ivory stepped up in Week 9 rushing for 107 yards, out-carrying Yeldon 18-to-7, the duo went back to their usual ways last week. Both players rushed nine times, for 63 yards combined. The combination of the two give the Jags a finesse and a power back, but for fantasy all the two do for each other is limit the other player’s value. This week they face the Lions run defense, which has allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. Until one player steps ahead of the other for more than one week, they will continue to hold each other back.
Notable Players
Golden Tate (WR, DET)
After an extremely slow start to the season, Tate really turned things around over the last four games. Tate is averaging eight receptions per game after averaging only three during the first five weeks of the season. He has gained 379 yards with two TDs over the past four games. The Jaguars defense has allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to WRs this season, and hasn’t allowed a 100-yard performance since Week 6. There is a good chance Tate has a solid game given the volume of targets he receives, but this game won’t be easy for the Lions WRs.
Buccaneers @ Chiefs - Sunday 11/20 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Mike Evans has been one of the most dominant WRs in the league this season, mainly due to the fact he leads the entire league in targets with 106 (11.8 targets per game). He is coming off of his lowest target total with five, so expect that number to spike back up this week. The Chiefs have given up the ninth most fantasy points to opposing WRs, with Kelvin Benjamin and Allen Robinson finding success against them over the past two weeks. Evans is far and away the most important part of this offense, making him a great fantasy play every week, let alone this week against a soft secondary.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
With Jeremy Maclin out last week, Hill stepped up catching 10 of his team high 13 targets for 89 yards in the Chiefs win over Carolina. The next closest receiver, Albert Wilson, had seven targets in the game. Though some targets will go Maclin’s way upon his return, Hill is still the receiver to start in this offense. Over the past three weeks Hill has the most targets on the team, one more than TE Travis Kelce (24 to 23). The Buccaneers have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing WRs, meaning if Smith continues looking his way, even with Maclin back, a big day could be in store for Hill. He has been the most explosive playmaker for the Chiefs over the past four weeks.
Matchups We Hate
Doug Martin (RB, TB)
Martin made his return to action last week against the Bears, rushing 16 times for 33 yards and a TD in the Bucs win. Martin immediately reclaimed his role as the top back in the offense, but was inefficient rushing for 2.1 YPC. This week things won’t get easier with the Chiefs, who have done a good job limiting opposing RBs over the past few weeks. They have shut down Jonathan Stewart and Frank Gore successfully over the past three weeks, though Chris Ivory was able to rush for over 100 yards against them (he also lost a key goal line fumble in that game). Martin will need to step up his game if he doesn’t want to be TD dependent in fantasy once again.
Notable Players
Spencer Ware (RB, KC)
After missing Week 9 with a concussion, Ware returned to action last week and rushed 13 times for 61 yards, while catching three passes for 11 yards. He briefely left this game also with a possible head injury, but was quickly put back into the game. If Ware can stay healthy and make it through this game, he should find plenty of room to run against a defense giving up the seventh most fantasy points to RBs this season.
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