November 19, 2016

Pierre Camus' Week 11 fantasy football matchups analysis (part 2) for the 2016 NFL season. Starts and sits for fantasy football lineups based on matchups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find part two of our Week 11 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Pierre Camus (@pfunk00) breaks down the second half of the Week 11 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part one of this week's matchup analysis by Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: New users that sign up on FantasyAces, make a $20 deposit, and enter any game will receive our full season NFL (or NBA) Premium Pass for free, a $59.99 value. Just email [email protected] with your new FantasyAces username - and boom, that's it! We will email you with your Premium pass.

Week 10 Recap

Greatest Hits: Brandin Cooks (WR, NO), Tyreek Hill (WR, KC), Marcus Mariota (QB, TEN)

Cooks owners who saw past the matchup were pleased with his 89 yards and a touchdown. With the way Drew Brees is slinging it, Cooks should be on the WR2 map each and every week. Tyreek Hill may be establishing himself as the WR1 in Kansas City, even if Jeremy Maclin does return. Hill was targeted a whopping 13 times, turning those looks into 10 catches for 89. He may be more than just a deep threat after all. PPR owners, take notice now. Mariota has gone from deep-league streamer to must-start QB. After a rough first month of the season, he has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game since Week 5. As a result, the Titans have a wealth of receivers who are now valuable waiver additions as well.

Greatest Misses: Willie Snead (WR, NO), Cameron Brate (TE, TB), DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN)

Once again we split on a pair of Saints, this time in the receiving corps. Snead only caught five passes for 47 yards, but he reached the end zone twice making him a frustrating player to predict. Brate was targeted more this game than he had since Week 4 and wound up with season highs in receptions and yards (7-84). Betting against the #2 scoring fantasy RB in the land is a bit risky and it didn't pay off. Murray wasn't explosive most of the day, but he pretty much paid off for fantasy owners after the first play from scrimmage went for a 75-yard touchdown. Lesson learned: don't bet against the lead horse when he's running strong.

Cardinals @ Vikings - Sunday 11/20 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

David Johnson (RB, ARI) - You don't sit your studs, ever. The Minnesota defense has been touted all year and for good reason. However, the new brand of Purple People Eaters have taken a step back lately, allowing 97 rushing yards to undrafted free agent Rob Kelley last week. Johnson has been underutilized in the run game, tallying 29 rush attempts in a three-week span (including the bye). This is probably a result of the team easing his workload after a Herculean 33-carry performance against the Seahawks in Week 7. He remains a big factor in the pass game, however, with 29 targets in the last three games. Johnson is a top five RB regardless of matchup and this week is no different.

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI) - It appears Captain Munnerlyn will miss another game, making Fitzgerald's job a bit easier. Fitz has been on the fritz with both knee and ankle issues, but it doesn't appear he will miss any games. His responsibility in the offense keeps increasing, as do his receptions. The last four weeks he has hauled in more passes each game (6, 9, 10, 12) despite not scoring. Keep Fitzgerald as a high-end WR2 this week.

Matchups We Hate

John Brown (WR, ARI) - Brown will match up with both Xavier Rhodes and Terrence Newman throughout the afternoon, which already limits his upside. Of all the Cardinals' receivers, Brown is least likely to make an impact due to decreasing volume of targets. Since being targeted 16 times in Week 4, resulting in his season-best 10 catches for 144 yards, Brown has logged a total of just 20 targets in the last five games. He missed one of those due to injury, but it's clear he is not the priority in this offense any more. If you have to choose between him or J.J. Nelson this week (emphasis on "have to"), you may be better off with Nelson.

Sam Bradford (QB, MIN) - Bradford isn't starting for anyone in one-quarterback leagues these days, but he might not be worth starting in two-QB leagues this week either. Arizona still has one of the top secondaries around, limited passers to a 6/9 TD/INT ratio this season. Bradford did throw for 307 yards and a pair of scores last week, but keep in mind it was his first 300 yard game of the entire season and he hasn't thrown for three TD in a game yet. This should be a low-scoring game won in the trenches, not the air.

Notable Players

Stefon Diggs (WR, MIN) - Reportedly, Patrick Peterson will shadow Diggs for the bulk of this game. That's certainly bad news for the second-year receiver, but not a death knell. The only receiver to go for 100 yards against Arizona this year was Jeremy Kerley, who somehow produced 173 yards and two TD over two contests with the Cards. Diggs works out of the slot 54% of the time, much like Kerley, so he could find himself able to avoid Peterson to some degree. Given the enormous number of targets he's receiving since Pat Shurmur took over as OC (13, 14, 15), Diggs will still be a factor in PPR leagues and shouldn't be benched.

Carson Palmer (QB, ARI) - The Vikings haven't been completely shutting down opposing passers lately, but they still rank among the top defenses in the league. He probably won't have his most efficient day, but the Cards have become pass-happy as of late. Palmer has attempted 49, 46, and 49 passes the last three games, resulting in three straight 300-yard efforts. This week, Palmer should be passed over in standard leagues, but he could produce enough points on volume alone to make him a decent contrarian play in DFS.

Bears @ Giants - Sunday 11/20 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, NYG) - Since his Week 6 explosion against the Ravens, Beckham's yardage totals haven't been too impressive in the last three games (49, 46, 97). He has reached the end zone three times in his two games since the bye week and the targets have consistently stayed at nine or more. He will be shadowed by Tracy Porter this week, which is actually a good thing. Porter grades out 80th among all cornerbacks in terms of coverage, according to ProFootballFocus. Beckham should make enough big plays to keep him in the top five this week. No other Giants receiver has stood out enough to steal targets away from OBJ on a consistent basis.

Jordan Howard (RB, CHI) - The Bears offense might be bereft of all hope if not for the rise of their rookie running back. With Alshon Jeffery gone for four games and Jay Cutler looking like a shell of his former self, the Bears will depend heavily on Howard. After a two-game lull, Howard has bounced back with 153 and 100 yard rushing efforts the last two weeks. He hasn't been listed on the injury report and the Giants are simply average against the run, so don't hesitate to employ him as usual.

Zach Miller (TE, CHI) - If someone will benefit from the absence of Jeffery, it will probably be Miller. Cutler has had a hard time finding any other wideouts as the Giants have a solid pair of cover corners. Miller is currently third in receptions among all tight ends and 10th in receiving yards. Those figures should climb over the next few weeks, starting in Week 11.

Matchups We Hate

Cameron Meredith (WR, CHI) - News of Alshon Jeffery's suspension made Meredith one of the top waiver wire pickups of the week. That doesn't necessarily mean he'll produce like one. He has caught exactly one pass in each of the past three games. It took a Hail Mary for him to register that catch in Week 10. The fact that he has been targeted a total of six times since Cutler returned should be warning enough that the trust factor isn't there. The Giants' starting corners are good enough to shut him out anyway, making Meredith an extremely risky start.

Paul Perkins (RB, NYG) - Perkins is on the radar of some analysts due to an increased snap count and, to some extent, because he plays in New York. More playing time has not resulted in more production, however. Perkins managed 31 rushing yards last week and 32 the week before, which is his season-high total. Talk of being a PPR value is overblown too - he hasn't seen more than three targets in a game yet. He could very well experience a Tevin Coleman-like breakout next season, but he hasn't shown he even belongs on fantasy rosters in 2016.

Notable Players

Eddie Royal (WR, CHI) - If you are desperate enough to pick a Chicago wideout this week, Royal would be the better choice. Primarily a slot receiver, Royal could see several targets. It's questionable how much he can do with those targets, but he seems to be the safest of the bunch aside from Zach Miller.

Dolphins @ Rams - Sunday 11/20 @ 4:05 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Jay Ajayi (RB, MIA) - He's going to continue to get love until he shows signs of slowing down. His totals weren't overly impressive last week, but that was partly because the Dolphins sacrificed his fantasy stats for the good of the team in the interest of winning (darn them!) Ajayi still averaged over four yards per carry and should have scored at least one short touchdown, but Miami mixed things up by inserting Damien Williams at the goal-line. 100 yards and a touchdown aren't out of the question.

Lance Kendricks (TE, LA) - Kendricks was becoming a big part of the Rams offense until a complete dud last week. In Weeks 6, 7, and 9, he caught 19 balls on 29 targets for 179 yards. Last week he caught one pass for no yards. For that reason, he could be ignored by the majority of fantasy players this weekend, especially with Goff starting for the first time. A big tight end could serve as a nice security blanket for the youngster. Kendricks could be a decent punt play in daily or a standard league fill-in for Gronk owners.

Matchups We Hate

Jared Goff (QB, LA) - It will be an exciting day for Rams fans and all NFL followers as #1 overall pick Jared Goff makes his debut. If you're considering playing him in any format, you either haven't been paying attention whatsoever or are one of the aforementioned Rams fans. Goff couldn't beat out Case Keenum for half the year and is only playing now after a public outcry against Jeff Fisher. The Dolphins aren't an elite defense by any means, but Cam Wake and Ndamukong Suh are enough to scare any rookie.

Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA) - The new Dolphins are winning, but it has come at the expense of the passing game. Landry has suffered the most, at least from a fantasy standpoint. He is still the undisputed WR1 and only Dolphins receiver worth playing, but he has been no more than a WR3 the last month and a half. In the last five games, Landry is averaging five receptions and 56.6 yards per game with zero touchdowns in that span. The Rams have a bend-not-break defense that should keep Landry below his ceiling once again.

Todd Gurley (RB, LA) - If you thought Gurley was facing stacked boxes already... The Fins will surely make Goff beat them on Sunday, focusing on Gurley as teams have all season long. In a disappointing campaign where he is averaging 3.1 Y/A, his prospects don't seem to be improving in any way. Just as Miami's own running game has taken off, their run defense has followed. Miami has held two of the last three opponents to 70 yards or less on the ground. If you have better options, don't feel guilty about grounding Gurley any longer.

Notable Players

DeVante Parker (WR, MIA) - In Week 10, Parker compiled more receiving yards than he had the previous three games combined. It was also his second 100-yard game of the year - the first came in Week 1. He claims to feel healthier, which could be a factor. It would be a mistake to read too much into one game, however, as the Dolphins will still lean on the running game heavily. Wait another week before using a flex slot on the young receiver. If you have the roster space, he makes a great stash before a Week 12 tilt with the 49ers.

Patriots @ 49ers - Sunday 11/20 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Tom Brady (QB, NE) - His price tag will be high this week, but it might be worth it. Only three teams have allowed more than the 19 passing TD that San Fran has given up to opposing quarterbacks. Brady owners just need to hope that the 49ers can score enough points to keep it from being a complete blowout in the second half, diminishing the need for the Pats to pass. Prefer Brady in 50/50 games this week.

James White (RB, NE) - LeGarrette Blount is an obvious RB1 this week against the worst run defense we've seen, but he may not be the only fantasy option in New England. Dion Lewis' impending return is scaring people away from White, but it doesn't appear Lewis will be active for this game. That gives White one last week to be a PPR value. If he reaches the end zone, he could turn out to be a great punt play.

Colin Kaepernick (QB, SF) - As tough as this matchup looks, the Pats are actually in the bottom 10 as far as fantasy PPG allowed to quarterbacks. He should have plenty of opportunity to sling it as the Niners are in come-from-behind mode. Thanks to a rushing TD, he pulled out decent fantasy value for the second week in a row. He could once again be a sneaky play for daily purposes and in two-quarterback leagues.

Matchups We Hate

Chris Hogan (WR, NE) - The Pats spread the ball around as it is, making it hard to rely on any one wide receiver. Hogan will have the toughest matchup of the bench, lining up against Tramaine Brock, who has graded out well this season. He played well in Buffalo three weeks ago, but was completely blanked last week. Before you get overly tempted by the matchup, consider a receiver with higher upside. Hogan has just one 100-yard game, two touchdowns and no games with five or more receptions on the season.

Carlos Hyde (RB, SF) - He's healthy enough to start again, but that shouldn't excite fantasy owners too much. Hyde produced 14 yards on 13 carries last week in his first action since Week 6. The truth is that Hyde is averaging 3.6 yards per carry on the season and hasn't reached the end zone since Week 5, partly due to injury. Only five teams have surrendered fewer rushing yards than New England, who have only allowed four rushing touchdowns as well.

Notable Players

Martellus Bennett (TE, NE) - If Gronk doesn't suit up due to his chest injury, Bennett could be in line for a big day. The problem is that Bennett himself is dealing with an ankle injury and is questionable for Week 11. It has been an all-or-nothing proposition with the Pats #2 TE this year. He has three 100-yard games and three sub-15 yard games. Check the injury report on both tight ends, but assume that Bennett will be the starter and use him if you have the opportunity.

Eagles @ Seahawks - Sunday 11/20 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Russell Wilson (QB, SEA) - This is the Russ we expected to see from Week 1. Wilson had his finest day against the Patriots, throwing for 348 yards and three touchdowns. The rushing numbers still aren't there, but Wilson does seem to have a bit more mobility in the pocket. The Eagles have one of the best fantasy defenses because they cause turnovers, but they have given up 568 passing yards in their last two games. He isn't a must-start, but don't be surprised if he continues racking up yardage at a high rate.

C.J. Prosise (RB, SEA) - The Eagles statistically are tougher against the run than the Seahawks. They do allow the ninth-most receptions to RB, however. The return of Thomas Rawls won't affect his carries, since they will likely ease Rawls back into action while seeing what Prosise can offer. His long-term prospects are yet to be determined, but this week could be a great time to try out Prosise before his value potentially skyrockets.

Matchups We Hate

Jordan Matthews (WR, PHI) - Fading receivers against the Seahawks is an obvious call. Add in the fact that Matthews has been limited in practice and he drops down to WR3 status for Week 11. Matthews has been coming on lately, registering 23 catches on 35 targets in the last three weeks, but he is also prone to disappearing for stretches. In PPR formats, he can be played but don't expect any trips to the end zone as the Eagles continue to focus on the running game.

Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA) - He is undeniably Wilson's top target, but he gets a tough draw against Malcolm Jenkins. Baldwin has gone for 16 catches, 199 yards and three TD the last three weeks, so his value will likely be inflated this week anyway. You should still be starting him in standard leagues, but consider fading him in DFS for the week.

Carson Wentz (QB, PHI) - The early season magic is gone. Wentz had a 7/1 TD/INT rate in his first four games. That figure has changed to a 2/4 TD/INT rate the last four games. The Eagles are wisely emphasizing the run in order to alleviate pressure from the rookie QB, which also serves to limit his ceiling. Wentz could only muster 231 yards against a hurting Falcons secondary, so one can only imagine how ugly the numbers might be in the home of the 12th man.

Notable Players

Thomas Rawls (RB, SEA) - He's back after an eight week hiatus and seems primed to take back the starting job. Christine Michael is gone and C.J. Prosise might be best suited for a third-down/change of pace role. Don't expect a huge workload right away, possibly 10-12 carries against a fairly tough defense. He won't be available in most leagues at this point, so hopefully you added him weeks ago if possible for the stretch run.

Packers @ Redskins - Sunday 11/20 @ 8:30 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Randall Cobb (WR, GB) - He's posted back-to-back disappointing weeks, but should be mostly healthy after being limited by a hamstring issue recently. Cobb will be covered by rookie Kendall Fuller in this game, favoring the veteran receiver. Cobb was on a roll in Weeks 5-7, so don't count him out just because Davante Adams has overtaken him in the target pecking order.

Davante Adams (WR, GB) - Speaking of Adams, no receiver has been a more valuable waiver addition than him since October arrived. In the last four games, Adams has 35 REC, 403 YDS and three TD. That ranks him second out of all WR over the past month in total fantasy points. Adams should mostly line up against the disappointing Bashaud Breeland, making him a solid play once again.

Jamison Crowder (WR, WAS) - The secret is out about Crowder, who is emerging as one of the top slot receivers in the game. He also seems to be Kirk Cousins' favorite target, averaging eight targets per game in the last four. He has scored three times in those four games as well, making him more than simply a PPR option. The Packers allow 26.4 fantasy points per game to WR, which is fourth-worst in the league. Crowder should stay on his current roll.

Matchups We Hate

Jordy Nelson (WR, GB) - It is Nelson who will draw coverage from Josh Norman in this matchup. It would be impossible to bench Nelson while he is on a three game scoring streak with 94 yards or more in each, but he should definitely be faded in daily games.

Notable Players

Rob Kelley (RB, WAS) - The Packers were the top run defense in the league for the majority of the first half of this season. They are now down to ninth after three straight disappointing weeks on the defensive side of the ball. Kelley impressed in a tough matchup against the Vikings last week, rushing for 97 yards. It's hard to recommend him as anything higher than an RB2, but he is certainly worth starting in most leagues.