UFL Best Bets: Week 9 Picks

May 23, 2025

RotoBrady provides picks on every spread and O/U for Week 9 of the 2025 UFL Season.

The parlay of Showboats ML + Defenders ML hit last week, and overall, I went 7-2 last week. That's how we get back on track--but now that the playoff picture is locked in, we have a whole new set of variables to consider for Week 9. If anything, it is probably the players on the eliminated teams with the most to play for--that being their personal futures. Two weeks left of the regular season, and nothing to play for is probably not what the league wanted.

Also, marring these final weeks is the fact that the playoff teams don't even have home-field advantage to play for. Unforeseen complications and logistics aside, it is a bad look for the league. The Defenders deserve to play the XFL championship game at Audi Field. I get it--this is essentially the reward for a fan base that shows up in droves--but how many breaks can you give to a single team? The pressure is on for the Battlehawks to make good on those advantages and at least make the championship game this year.

So, I'm not going to lie: based on all of these factors, I would not blame you if you want to take the next couple of weeks off from betting. Take a breather, monitor personnel news, and come back fresh for the playoffs...I totally get it. But, that isn't how we do things around here--so if, like me, you cannot let a week go by without putting your money where your mouth is on the UFL, let's get down to it and make some picks for Week 9.

Week 9 Power Rankings

1. D.C. Defenders--at least you can actually trust that this team is starting their MVP-candidate quarterback.
2. Michigan Panthers--I don't care how Danny Etling played, anyone but Bryce Perkins in the game is a huge red flag.
3. St. Louis Battlehawks--a huge win at home over Birmingham to seal the playoffs. Do they have what it takes to beat D.C.?
4. Birmingham Stallions--they had their chances here--the lack of consistency at QB has kept them off balance.
5. Arlington Renegades--a bummer ending for Luis Perez, but they have no one to blame but themselves.
6. Houston Roughnecks--even in missing the postseason, this has been a season beyond anyone's wildest expectations.
7. Memphis Showboats--building for the future is a bold strategy in the UFL, but at least they are confident in a future.
8. San Antonio Brahmas--where did it all go SO wrong? How, why...how?

Week 9 Picks

St. Louis Battlehawks at San Antonio Brahmas (Friday, May 23rd, at 8 PM ET)

Battlehawks (-6.5), -310 ML, O/U 42.5

The Battlehawks are coming off a massive one-point win at home over the Birmingham Stallions to seal a 2025 playoff birth. On the other side, the Brahmas just took their seventh loss of the season by two points to the Memphis Showboats in a game where Jashaun Corbin totaled 142 yards rushing, but Kevin Hogan was absolutely miserable. After that, it isn't surprising that Kellen Mond is back in at QB1, but maybe newly signed Alan Bowman will see the field too.

St. Louis has already cemented a playoff spot AND was given home-field advantage for every potential round of the playoffs. I don't care what the depth chart says this week, because they have absolutely ZERO reason to put their best on the field. You could have gotten San Antonio +8 to start the week, but covering 6.5 is still reasonable given the circumstances if Corbin is a productive runner again. Let's say a final score of 21-15 to 26-22 either way, so take the Brahmas to cover and lean very slightly under.

Arlington Renegades at Memphis Showboats (Saturday, May 24th, at 12 PM ET)

Renegades (-4.5), -192 ML, O/U 40.5

The Showboats are now without Wes Hills, but they continue to add young talent to the roster. However, they were fortunate even to beat San Antonio last week, and E.J. Perry will be starting at QB, which I don't love. On the other hand, while Perez is still slated as the starter, we could definitely see action from Holton Ahlers and Luke Lehnen. With the way things ended last week and the Renegades' fourth-quarter woes all season, they might be playing with a vengeance.

This Arlington defense still features the likes of Willie Taylor III, Chris Odom, Donald Payne, and Ajene Harris. That is enough to give E.J. Perry and the Boats nightmares all game. This Arlington team could've been a contender (Marlon Brandon style) had a few moments gone a bit differently, and maybe they feel amped to get a couple of wins for Perez to close out the year. Give me a final score range of 19-9 to 26-14 for Arlington--so lay the points and take the under.

Michigan Panthers at Birmingham Stallions (Saturday, May 24th, at 3 PM ET)

Stallions (-3), -142 ML, O/U 44.5

Due to Perkins' tender ankle, he will sit this week. We can all only hope that the plan is for him to return when he is at full strength in meaningful games. Much to Mike Nolan's excitement, Etling will be getting the start, and most notably, DE Breeland Speaks is back in the lineup. This is the hardest game of the week to call, with the Stallions dealing with some injury issues of their own and J'Mar Smith starting, why would either coach be showing their hands to get a win in a meaningless game?

This game would be awesome if anything were on the line, as it will be in a couple of weeks. On Saturday, this is basically an exhibition. Even with Etling playing well last week, he isn't known to do that consistently, while maybe Birmingham has a tad more motivation to win after last week's loss to St. Louis and secure this one in front of fifty fans. I don't know...give me a final score range of 24-21 to 27-23 for the Stallions--lay the points and take the over.

D.C. Defenders at Houston Roughnecks (Sunday, May 25th, at 4 PM ET)

Defenders (-3.5), -175 ML, O/U 45.5

Jordan Ta'amu has probably surpassed Perkins in the MVP conversation as BY FAR the UFL's leading passer. But they already know they are in the playoffs and will be playing in St. Louis, and this isn't a game where they can give the Audi Field faithful a final thank you for their support in 2025. The Houston Roughnecks have been such an interesting story this season. Jalan McClendon has been fantastic under center and the backfield has been productive and well-rounded.

Michigan really punched Houston in the mouth last week, despite a good overall offensive performance by the Roughnecks--but Houston has reason to put their best foot forward on Sunday, D.C. has many reasons not to. If the backfield is moving and McClendon remains consistent, this can definitely be a close game. Let's say the final score range will be 21-18 to 24-21, so take the points with Curtis Johnson and the Roughnecks and favor the under.

Parlay of the Week

Showboats ML + Roughnecks ML: +560

Two plus-money picks for teams with strong second halves, who are playing teams with questionable motivations for Week 9. D.C. has no reason to put any of their best players at risk or show their hands for the playoffs, and Arlington is coming off another devastating loss. The Renegades might be looking to start warming up their younger talent with Luis Perez near the end of his illustrious Spring Football career. I know this goes against what I said about Memphis above, but I like the overarching theme of this parlay.

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