UFL Best Bets: Week 8 Picks

May 16, 2025

RotoBrady provides picks on every spread and O/U for Week 8 of the 2025 UFL Season.

The parlay of the week missed by just one leg last week, and it was because of the Roughnecks blowing that lead and losing to the Stallions by eight. Well, that figures. I went 4-4 last in Week 7, though, so we are starting to balance out from a rough and tumble in the previous couple of weeks. We have even more personnel news in just three weeks in the regular season. By the way--it is a crying shame that the XFL AND USFL #1 seeds might end up playing road games in the playoffs.

The Michigan Panthers get Matt Colburn back (though, update, he is still inactive this week), but take a massive hit with the loss of Frank Ginda for the rest of the season. Former MVP Alex McGough might be back in at QB1 for Birmingham this week, but that is Skip Holtz's decision to make. The Showboats will be missing Wes Hills this week, and they are mixing it up at QB with Troy Williams slated as the starter. Why, WHY, are they playing both Saturday games at the same time?

For the Houston Roughnecks and Arlington Renegades, both sitting two games out from the postseason at 3-4, this is an absolutely make-or-break week. For the four teams deadlocked at 5-2, this is crucial battling for position, and for the 1-6 Brahmas and Showboats, every single player is taking the field looking to further their professional careers. The beauty is that, in the UFL, everyone has something to play for. With that, let's get down to it and talk about Week 8.

Week 8 Power Rankings

1. Michigan Panthers--the loss of Ginda is devastating, but MVP Bryce Perkins still has this squad rolling.
2. D.C. Defenders--other than their weird thing with the Brahmas, this looks like the team poised to come out of the XFL.
3. St. Louis Battlehawks--so many things look great on paper, I just can't shake the feeling that something is missing.
4. Birmingham Stallions--Alex McGough is back in the fold, so it will be a tough choice between him, J'Mar Smith, and Case Cookus.
5. Arlington Renegades--they have been hairs short of some huge wins, and they will have to claw their way back in to have a shot at the postseason.
6. Houston Roughnecks--come on, guys--you had them. You had Birmingham on the ropes last week. You have three weeks to make up the difference.
7. Memphis Showboats--they have managed to look much more serviceable in recent weeks, but the playoffs are a no-go.
8. San Antonio Brahmas--they know how to play the Defenders, but that might be about all they know.

Week 8 Picks

Memphis Showboats at San Antonio Brahmas (Friday, May 16th, at 8 PM ET)

Brahmas (-1.5), -120 ML, O/U 36.5

Things were going alright with Dresser Winn in at quarterback for Memphis, but it will be Williams getting the nod this week...at first. Don't be shocked if we see all three QBs get snaps on Friday night. The Showboats' defense performed admirably last week in a 19-9 loss to the Battlehawks, and I think, for UFL purposes, Deneric Prince will be serviceable without Wes Hills. Just don't put any DFS faith in a Showboats receiver.

It looked for a second there like San Antonio was going to sweep D.C.. Jashaun Corbin netted 109 yards and a touchdown on nine carries, and Kevin Hogan played phenomenally all around. The Brahmas' defense, as has been the case all year, couldn't hold, and I have learned the hard way not to trust this team to have strong performances in consecutive weeks. Even in the Alamodome, you go where the plus money is. I see a final score range of 16-13 to 21-20 for either side, so take the points with Memphis and lean under.

Birmingham Stallions at St. Louis Battlehawks (Saturday, May 17th, at 1 PM ET)

Battlehawks (-1.5), -118 ML, O/U 39.5

Max Duggan and the Battlehawks took care of business last week, albeit in forgettable fashion, 19-9 over Memphis with just three second-half points. We do know that if Rodrigo Blankenship is in range in 2025, he is automatic. Duggan continues to be a multifaceted threat, and it's a pick-your-poison deal with the slew of offensive weapons they have to work with on a weekly basis. They will be a bit shorthanded this week on the defensive line.

Smith has officially gotten the QB1 nod after leading a heroic winning drive vs. a surprisingly good Houston team last week. More importantly, Ricky Person Jr., C.J. Marable, Jace Sternberger, Deon Cain, and Marlon Williams all showed out last week, and a good backfield makes this team very hard to beat. This is a very evenly matched game in St. Louis, and I see a final score range of 21-17 to 33-28 in either direction, so ride with the Stallions and take the over.

Michigan Panthers at Houston Roughnecks (Saturday, May 17th, at 1 PM ET)

Panthers (-6.5), -285 ML, O/U 43.5

Losing Ginda is devastating, and while the Panthers hope to get Colburn back ASAP, Toa Taua has done great in his absence. A bit of a fluky last-second win for the Panthers (25-24) over the Renegades last week, but Bryce Perkins continued his MVP campaign with a massive final drive, and had strong showings from receivers Siaosi Mariner and Malik Turner (combining for 135 yards and a TD on nine catches).

Houston let that win slip through their fingers last week. Jalan McClendon was rock-solid again as a passer, and the Roughnecks' backfield of ZaQuandre White and Lorenzo Lingard combined for 87 yards and two TDs on just 12 carries (7.25 YPC). Kirk Merritt is also back in the lineup. Surprisingly, WR Marcus Simms will not be active to face his former squad. Even at home, I think Week 7 might've taken some wind out of Curtis Johnson's sails. I see a final score range of 25-18 to 31-24, so lay with Michigan and take another over.

Arlington Renegades at D.C. Defenders (Sunday, May 18th, at 12 PM ET)

Defenders (-2.5), -130 ML, O/U 42.5

A massive rivalry game to cap off the week: Jordan Ta'amu continues to make the MVP race super interesting, netting 278 yards and three touchdowns on 19-24 passing last week against the Brahmas. Offenses have gotten better, but this defense hasn't exactly shone either over the last few weeks. Deon Jackson continues to carry the ground load for the Defenders, with Abram Smith having a limited role.

Another heartbreaker for Arlington. A few things go a different way this year, and it could easily be them at 5-2. Luis Perez and the Arlington pass-catchers had fantastic showings last week, but the backfield production was minimal and quite inefficient. Perez vs. Ta'amu is always compelling. I could see a close win for either team or a bigger win for D.C. at Audi Field. Maybe a final score of 26-24, either way, all the way up to 33-31. I say go over, and I think there is value in both D.C. ML and Arlington to cover 2.5.

Parlay of the Week

Showboats ML + Defenders ML: +231

Maybe San Antonio's close game with D.C. has caused this overreaction, but the Showboats have looked competent of late, and I am counting against another higher scoring effort for the Brahmas. Arlington has been so close to so many meaningful wins, but this game on the road at Audi Field will be the nail in the coffin for 2025.

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