UFL Best Bets: Week 6 Picks

RotoBrady provides picks on every spread and O/U for Week 6 of the 2025 UFL Season.

Wow. What an amazingly entertaining week full of huge surprises and horrible picks. D.C. pulls off the biggest comeback in UFL history? Houston creams San Antonio in the Alamodome? Birmingham takes a loss to the Showboats? The USFL playoff race is actually a race. This league might have some parity. Dresser Winn was Offensive Player of the Week last week, and Isiah Hennie won the weekly Special Teams award--it feels like I hopped dimensions.

It is actually possible to imagine a postseason without Birmingham at this point. Hypothetical, but still a country mile from where we were over the last few years. At this point, these power rankings are mostly reactionary. Pretty much every team is banged up at this point--good thing the players are now eligible for healthcare in 2026. As many viewpoints aside as possible, agreeing to something like that is a huge boost of confidence in the UFL's potential longevity.

We are officially halfway through the regular season. Crazy how we look forward all year to the start of the season and it gets to this point in the blink of an eye. Fitting that at the halfway mark it almost feels like we are starting from scratch with what we think we know about each team. The coaching situations that looked either awesome or terrible--those notions are very different now (my apologies I guess to Curtis Johnson?). So, let's talk about Week 6.

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Week 6 Power Rankings

1. D.C. Defenders--the biggest comeback in UFL, the biggest win of the week, and the best record in the league...with the loss being to the worst team.
2. Arlington Renegades--those two losses came by fractions to teams with a combined 7-3 record.
3. St. Louis Battlehawks--the Battlehawks played a great game last week. The losses aren't so bad in hindsight with how much this offense was clicking against Michigan.
4. Michigan Panthers--Bryce Perkins is having an MVP-caliber season and the only person who doesn't seem to know that is Mike Nolan. A well-rounded squad capable of looking quite good to mediocre on any given weekend.
5. Birmingham Stallions--I just don't even know what to say. We could ignore some of the concerns about the 2025 Stallions up to this point, but a loss to the Showboats is the reddest of flags.
6. Houston Roughnecks--this team is actually in playoff contention. Not even just mathematically--they could make it to the postseason with Jalan McClendon slotted at QB1.
7. Memphis Showboats--they looked to have life on offense with Dresser Winn at QB against a usually stout D.C. defense.
8. San Antonio Brahmas--they beat the best team in the league in Week 4 yet still somehow thoroughly convinced me that no team has more problems.

Week 6 Picks

Arlington Renegades at St. Louis Battlehawks (Friday, May 2, at 8 p.m. ET)

Battlehawks (-3.5), -166 ML, O/U 42.5

The Battlehawks pulled off a huge win in an awesome game last week, 32-27, over the Michigan Panthers at home. The Renegades gave up the biggest comeback win in UFL history to the Defenders, 37-33. Sounds like one team is coming off an emotional high, with the other being strongly motivated to put a cap on the game this time. Max Duggan, Jacob Saylors, and Hakeem Butler were fantastic last week, but they didn't have to do a whole lot of passing.

The passing they did was efficient, but hard to recreate week by week. The Renegades had a solid showing by Luis Perez, Kalen Ballage, and a handful of receivers--their secondary just gave up too much production to Jordan Ta'amu. This game in St. Louis is a coin flip. I think we will have similar results to both teams' Week 5 games--and on a coin flip, I will opt for the team that gives me plus-money. I see a final score range of 25-21 to 33-27 either way, so might as well take the points and ML on Arlington and go over.

Memphis Showboats at Houston Roughnecks (Saturday, May 3, at 12 p.m. ET)

Roughnecks (-4.5), -225 ML, O/U 37.5

What would have been a cringeworthy game a couple of weeks ago is now must-see TV. McClendon was efficient passing last week, ZaQuandre White and Kirk Merritt were solid in the backfield, and the defense shined in Houston's 27-3 routing of the Brahmas in San Antonio's home opener. In MAYBE the game of the week, Memphis got a massive win over Birmingham 24-20 on a huge outing by Dresser Winn and the Showboats' Special Teams.

Deneric Prince even had an excellent game--and guess who just joined the party? Wes Hills is now with Memphis and is active, which gives the Boats an extra element of danger moving forward. Both defenses will shine in Week 6 with the Showboats covering, but maybe not in a winning effort. Memphis earned every point last week, Houston was fortunate to score 27, and Marcus Simms is inactive. Give me a final score range of 18-15 to 27-23. Take the points with Memphis and favor the over.

D.C. Defenders at Michigan Panthers (Sunday, May 4, at 12 p.m. ET)

Panthers (-2.5), -162 ML, O/U 42.5

Michigan has formally announced that Perkins is the starter and they are off of the two-QB system. That is great to hear, but with Coach Nolan, I will believe it when I see it. Either way, they narrowly missed beating the Battlehawks on the road last week off of another strong performance by Perkins and a feel-good game from Toa Taua. If Devin Ross is active, the receiving core AND the Special Teams remain formidable.

D.C. defied the odds last week and mounted the biggest comeback in UFL history to take one from the Renegades behind a big game from Ta'amu and an efficient, albeit limited, performance from the backfield. Hopefully, Michigan will have 10,000+ fans in attendance. This is another coin-flip game, and I see a final score of 21-17 to 26-23 either way. So, I would say take the Defenders to cover, on the money line, and take the over again.

San Antonio Brahmas at Birmingham Stallions (Sunday, May 4, at 4 p.m. ET)

Stallions (-10), -550 ML, O/U 37.5

Yeesh--two tough blows for these teams last week. San Antonio got embarrassed in their home opener. Jarrett Guarantano may have outplayed Kellen Mond--though both were bad--and while Anthony McFarland Jr. was great when he ran the ball, they only handed it off to him six times. Six times? I thought Payton Pardee was the guy to see through this mistake, but obviously, McFarland's talent remains a mystery to everyone who isn't on the Brahmas' coaching staff.

Case Cookus had big-play ability, and Ricky Person Jr./C.J. Marable went for 65 yards on 16 carries. The San Antonio defense has fallen to pieces in 2025, and you have to think that Cookus is going to be more comfortable with some of the rust worn off. This is one line I would be cautious about. I could see Holtz and Pardee making some corrective adjustments with a final score range of 18-14 to 23-9 for Birmingham. Maybe leave this game alone, but maybe take San Antonio to cover and the under.

Parlay of the Week

Defenders ML + Renegades ML: +415

Getting both money lines at plus money for the two teams that have definitely looked to be the best two in the league seems like a chance I have to take.

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