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Nick Federline's college basketball betting picks for the 2021 NCAA Tournament's Elite 8. He analyzes CBB Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
A thrilling Sweet 16 has whittled the NCAA Tournament field down to the final 8 contenders. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament coverage and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and betting picks.
During the Sweet 16, our expert betting picks ended up with a 3-1 record. On the losing side, Syracuse looked dreadful on offense and could not "buy a bucket" against Houston's stifling perimeter defense. Oregon State sent Sister Jean and the Loyola Ramblers packing in a tough, low-scoring game that went under the total, Creighton got overwhelmed by Gonzaga as so many teams have been this year, and UCLA upset Alabama in overtime on their way to easily crushing the game total's over.
Here are some of the top college basketball betting picks for the Elite 8 (Monday and Tuesday, March 29 and 30, 2021). Let me know your thoughts, and follow along with the action on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time. Season record to date: 35-24.
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#12 Oregon State vs. #2 Houston - 7:15 PM, Monday
Coach Wayne Tinkle's team has been one of the feel-good surprises of the tournament so far. After knocking off Tennessee in the First Round, Oregon State's three-point barrage continued in their upset victories over Oklahoma state and Loyola-Chicago. Despite shooting only 28.6% from 3-point range as a team during the regular season, the Beavers are shooting 41.7% from deep over their last six games - dating back to the beginning of the Pac-12 tournament. Senior guard Ethan Thompson is a fourth-year starter, who was integral in the victory over the Ramblers, going for 22 points and converting all eight of his free-throw opportunities. Oregon State held Loyola to a miserable shooting display (18 of 54 from the field) which catapulted the Beavers into the Elite 8. The three-point barrage may have finally met its match, with Houston's 9th-ranked 3-point defense sure to cause some frustrations in a game that will likely be a slugfest.
Houston, under the leadership of Coach Kelvin Sampson is in the midst of a successful run that has been given the easiest Elite 8 path. Vanquishing #15 seed Cleveland State, #10 Rutgers, #11 Syracuse and possibly #12 Oregon State would give the Cougars a four-game winning streak over all double digit seeds in the NCAA Tournament, which would mark a historical first-ever time in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars sport a sterling 27-3 record, and the defense has been stellar in the Tournament thus far. Quentin Grimes, who started his career at Kansas, is the leading scorer at over 18 ppg. Houston has only allowed two opponents all season to convert at least 10 three-pointers all season, and this strength may be Oregon State's undoing.
Pick: Houston -7.5
#1 Baylor vs. #3 Arkansas - 9:55 PM, Monday
Saturday's convincing victory over an experienced, well-coached Villanova squad should convince many of the doubters that the late season mini-slide the Bears experienced was a fluke and that Baylor poses the biggest remaining possible challenge to Gonzaga. Led by star guards Jared Butler and MaCio Teague, the team has an incredible 41.8% three-point field goal percentage, ranking amongst the best in college basketball. The biggest "weakness" for the Bears might be their rebounding, where they have not had significant advantages throughout much of the year. Still, with a 23-2 record, Coach Scott Drew has little to complain about. The Bears are about as complete of a team as you'll see this year, and definitely have the talent to be the last one standing this year.
All aboard the "Muss Bus." Coach Eric Musselman has revamped the Arkansas program in just his second season in Fayetteville, similar to the great work he did as the lead man in Reno, Nevada, prior to his SEC departure. Arkansas plays at a lightning quick pace, and needed that pace in their huge second half to send America's favorite Cinderella team, Oral Roberts, home. Despite only making one three-point basket gall game, the Razorbacks were able to edge Oral Roberts 72-70 thanks to a dominant performance on the offensive boards, with 18 offensive rebounds and a +11 rebounding margin. The triumvirate of Moses Moody, Jalen Tate and Justin Smith rarely left the floor, playing a combined 115 of a possible 120 minutes, despite playing through foul trouble. Expect Arkansas to try to turn the game into a track meet, which would help their transition-focused offense.
Pick: Over 148.5
#1 Gonzaga vs. #6 Southern California (USC) - 7:15 PM, Tuesday
Through three games, Gonzaga has covered the spread three times, scored over 80 points in each game, and has given no indications of slowing down. Coach Mark Few kept the team's short bench against Creighton en route to an easy 18-point victory that was out of reach early in the second half. The Zags have now scored over 80 points in 26 of 29 games. In our Sweet 16 betting picks, we discussed the "weak spot" of the Bulldogs would possibly be their rebounding, yet they recorded a +7 margin against Creighton. If Gonzaga continues to shoot 60% from the field, as they did in the win over the Blue Jays, there will be no team in the field that can beat them. This matchup with USC, who has enviable size, might poses some problems on the interior at times for Gonzaga. Center Drew Timme, a Wooden award finalist for the best player in the nation, will be the most important player in Tuesday's game.
The USC Trojans knocked off two historically successful programs - #3 Kansas and #7 Oregon - in their path to this year's Elite 8. Coach Andy Enfield's program features a huge frontcourt anchored by likely top 5 NBA draft pick Evan Mobley, and center Isaiah Mobley. Evan is a super-freshman averaging 16.6 points per game and nearly 9 boards per matchup. Isaiah, meanwhile, has shown his chops as a stretch-five, including an impressive 4-for-5 performance from beyond the arc against Kansas. When the Mobleys sit, former Wofford center Chevez Goodwin provides the Trojans with an experienced big man that can hold his own against strong competition. The Trojans will need their point guard Tahj Eaddy to stay clear of foul trouble in the hopes of keeping things close against an incredibly talented Gonzaga team.
Pick: Gonzaga -9
#1 Michigan vs. #11 UCLA - 9:57 PM, Tuesday
Entering the tournament, many prognosticators were quick to write off Michigan's chances after forward Isaiah Livers went down with a stress fracture in his foot. While Livers is still not cleared to return, the Wolverines are fresh off a dominant win over Florida State. From start-to-finish, Michigan used a strong team effort including a double-double from Franz Wagner on the wing, 12 points from Wake Forest transfer Chaundee Brown off the bench. After taking down #16 Texas Southern, #8 LSU, and #4 Florida State, Michigan gets to face a red-hot UCLA team that seemingly can't miss right now. The Trojans had their fair share of troubles in the Round of 32 against a similarly hot LSU team, but Michigan was able to regroup and overcome an 8-point deficit under 10 minutes in the second half. Coach Juwan Howard's team has strong post play from freshman Hunter Dickinson, a calming presence at point guard with Columbia transfer Mike Smith, and lofty National Championship aspirations.
Coach Mick Cronin was long known as a defensive "grind-it-out" type of coach during his tenure at Cincinnati. This Bruins team overcame the loss of its top player - Chris Smith - early in the season, and has reinvented itself as a team of elite shooters and a cohesive starting five playing elite basketball. UCLA took down #11 Michigan State in the play-in game, followed by wins over #6 BYU, #14 Abilene Christian, and #2 Alabama to get to this point, with three of those four wins being by over 10 points. If the Bruins get a lead, they are dangerous as their strong free throw shooting can help them ice games late. In the victory over Alabama, six players scored in double figures and the Bruins forced a +6 turnover margin to seal the victory in overtime. Will the magical run continue with a Final 4 appearance? Only time will tell, but UCLA is arguably the hottest team aside from Gonzaga at this moment and their pace could pose issues for Michigan.
Pick: UCLA +7.5
Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
