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Top 101 Starting Pitchers: Fantasy Baseball Rankings (Week 9 Updates) - The Baller Ranks

Chris Sale - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Howdy, RotoBallers, as we gather for my weekly top 101 SP Baller Ranks breakdown. June is approaching, which means almost one-third of the season is behind us! It's a marathon but that doesn't mean we can't make each mile count with the Week 9 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!

Some key hot starts to the season have not slowed down, while others can't seem to get rolling. Let's dive into the data and see what we've got moving forward with tiered ranks, complemented by a rest-of-season auction value ($), their Previous Week's Value (PV), the trend between the two, and a (+/-) column denoting the rank shift compared to last week.

These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 roto leagues and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. This week includes a notable prospect stash list. For now, let's dive into my top 101 healthy SPs and build a winner.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis

Let's start with a little leaderboard love. FYI, 32 of 162 pitchers over the last 30 days have a K-BB% over 20% (min. 10 IP). Nine pitchers have a >20% K-BB%, a SIERA under 4.00, and a gap of >1.00 between their ERA and underlying SIERA in that span:

Name ERA SIERA K-BB% ERA-SIERA
Joe Musgrove 6.48 3.30 20.90% 3.18
Pablo Lopez 5.23 2.81 25.55% 2.42
Dane Dunning 4.40 2.34 29.82% 2.05
Nick Pivetta 4.60 2.75 27.59% 1.85
Jack Flaherty 3.26 1.84 33.04% 1.42
Taj Bradley 4.00 2.58 28.17% 1.42
Nick Lodolo 4.70 3.33 20.21% 1.36
Paul Skenes 2.70 1.60 38.46% 1.10
Bailey Ober 4.08 3.02 24.77% 1.06

-Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta, and Taj Bradley just returned while Dane Dunning and Nick Lodolo are out, so those sample sizes are limited. I’d be happy to sneak that first trio into a trade get. I’m sending several offers for Pablo Lopez, who has a phenomenal xFIP, SIERA, xERA, walk rate, xBA, etc. behind the ugly 4.72 ERA. Jack Flaherty is legit. Paul Skenes deserves the phenom label. Bailey Ober is also doing his usual thing but has an awkward 63% strand rate (career 76%) to inflate the 4.40 ERA. Most of these are nice targets! Now to business as usual.

-Chris Sale demands I stop playing doctor and overcompensating for year-long injury risk. Unlike Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet, Sale did pitch over 100 innings last year and has plenty in the theoretical tank, health willing. Whiffs are up (the 15.5% swinging-strike rate trails only his 2018 mark), yet walks are at a career-low 3.6% through 57 IP.

-Freddy Peralta continues to bring the strikeouts and sports his usual control -- whiffs and walks are not the problem here. The quality of contact surrendered is. His xwOBACON (Expected Weighted On-Base Average on Contact, which effectively measures how well balls are put in play) is .427, which resides in the bottom 10% of MLB. The 10.9% barrel rate and 39.5% Launch Angle Sweet Spot rate are career-worst marks. I think he’s a nice buy-low; the 3.47 FIP/3.07 SIERA are cushy behind the 4.17 ERA, though his ERA typically creeps above them.

-Grayson Rodriguez had a sweet “re-entry” matchup against Seattle after missing over two weeks due to right shoulder inflammation. GrayRod struck out seven M’s over six shutout frames, allowing just one hit alongside three walks. In a perfect world, that ~9% walk rate starts to drop but his raw stuff is tough to punish and Camden is a friendly backdrop. Let’s hope the shoulder stays good. I don’t blame anyone for selling high following the shining return.

-Seth Lugo had been pitching well but I wasn’t prepared for back-to-back gems with double-digit strikeouts. And with only one free pass issued in those 13 ⅔ IP? (Yes, a 22:1 K:BB in nearly 14 IP is great, thanks for asking.) The Ks raised the pitch count enough to rob him of an eighth quality start by one out, but his seventh win in 10 trips to the hill would do.

A quick glance at sabermetrics like FIP, SIERA, SwStr%, K-BB%, xBA, xwOBA, Barrel%, and more don’t look sizably different from past seasons. There is some luck (.253 vs. .286 career) and facing the likes of Oakland, Detroit, and the ChiSox (x2), but he’s an AL Central pitcher!

He also introduced a cutter and started throwing his curveball more exclusively against left-handed batters. The curve’s whiff rate has jumped over 10 percentage points from ‘23, with the putaway rate more than doubling (16.9% to 36.4%!). His slider is still reserved for righty bats but he’s increased the spin rate by over 100 rpm with solid results. Is he really this good? No. But that division remains weak and he’s made some changes to optimize his attack that might get lost in the shuffle.

-Michael King has top-25 upside but remember this is his first full year as a starter in new digs. His 11% walk rate and 19% HR/FB rate are dragging him down, though he looked as though he’d left those issues in the past with consecutive scoreless outings on May 4 and 10. Then, he crashed with six runs against the road Rockies. Inconsistency is a factor here. Only four QS in nine starts caps the excitement on someone who likely has ~100 more innings tops.

-Luis Gil crushed the White Sox with 14 strikeouts over six innings on Saturday. The 25-year-old has a 2.39 ERA and 31.2% strikeout rate through 49 IP but only threw four innings last year and 25 IP in ‘22 due to injuries. How many innings do they put on him? Would they save him as a bullpen arm for a team with playoff aspirations? If health holds for all and Gerrit Cole returns, then someone is getting shifted and the entire rotation is doing extremely well.

Guys near the end of the table who carry underrated upside: Jose Soriano, Alec Marsh, Robert Gasser, Spencer Arrighetti, and Tylor Megill.

Prospects to Stash via our stud Eric Cross:

Cade Horton (CHC)
Cade Povich (BAL)
Max Meyer (MIA)
Drew Thorpe (CHW)
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL)
Jack Leiter (TEX)
Jackson Jobe (DET)
Jacob Misiorowski (NYM)
Blade Tidwell (NYM)
Chayce McDermott (BAL)
Sem Robberse (STL)
Carson Whisenhunt (SF)
A.J. Blubaugh (HOU)
David Festa (MIN)

 

Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball

(+/-) Tier Player Rank $ PV Trend
0 1 Tyler Glasnow 1 $44.0 44.0 0.0 ▬
0 1 Zack Wheeler 2 $42.5 43.0 -0.5 ▼
0 1 Corbin Burnes 3 $42.0 42.0 0.0 ▬
0 2 Tarik Skubal 4 $41.0 41.0 0.0 ▬
9 2 Chris Sale 5 $39.0 32.5 6.5 ▲
-1 2 Pablo Lopez 6 $39.0 40.0 -1.0 ▼
-1 2 Luis Castillo 7 $38.0 39.0 -1.0 ▼
1 2 Cole Ragans 8 $36.0 36.0 0.0 ▬
-2 3 George Kirby 9 $36.0 38.0 -2.0 ▼
0 3 Jared Jones 10 $35.0 35.0 0.0 ▬
0 3 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 11 $35.0 35.0 0.0 ▬
1 3 Shota Imanaga 12 $34.0 33.0 1.0 ▲
-5 3 Freddy Peralta 13 $33.0 36.0 -3.0 ▼
-2 3 Max Fried 14 $32.5 34.0 -1.5 ▼
1 3 Zac Gallen 15 $31.0 30.5 0.5 ▲
-1 3 Logan Webb 16 $31.0 31.0 0.0 ▬
0 3 Aaron Nola 17 $30.0 30.0 0.0 ▬
1 3 Joe Ryan 18 $28.0 28.0 0.0 ▬
-1 3 Dylan Cease 19 $28.0 29.0 -1.0 ▼
0 4 Kevin Gausman 20 $25.5 26.0 -0.5 ▼
0 4 Logan Gilbert 21 $25.5 25.5 0.0 ▬
1 4 Kyle Bradish 22 $25.0 24.0 1.0 ▲
N/A 4 Grayson Rodriguez 23 $25.0 N/A N/A
-2 4 Sonny Gray 24 $25.0 25.0 0.0 ▬
-1 4 Bailey Ober 25 $23.0 22.0 1.0 ▲
-1 4 Yu Darvish 26 $21.5 21.0 0.5 ▲
1 4 Jesus Luzardo 27 $21.0 20.0 1.0 ▲
2 4 Garrett Crochet 28 $20.0 19.0 1.0 ▲
4 4 Paul Skenes 29 $20.0 17.0 3.0 ▲
7 5 Ranger Suarez 30 $19.0 15.0 4.0 ▲
7 5 Jack Flaherty 31 $19.0 15.0 4.0 ▲
-1 5 Framber Valdez 32 $17.5 18.0 -0.5 ▼
-1 5 Justin Steele 33 $17.5 18.0 -0.5 ▼
0 5 Yusei Kikuchi 34 $17.5 17.0 0.5 ▲
6 5 Nick Pivetta 35 $17.5 15.0 2.5 ▲
3 5 Bryce Miller 36 $17.5 19.5 -2.0 ▼
-8 5 Kutter Crawford 37 $17.0 19.0 -2.0 ▼
7 5 Seth Lugo 38 $16.5 14.5 2.0 ▲
-4 5 Ronel Blanco 39 $16.5 16.5 0.0 ▬
-13 6 Michael King 40 $16.0 20.0 -4.0 ▼
-1 6 MacKenzie Gore 41 $15.0 15.0 0.0 ▬
0 6 Walker Buehler 42 $15.0 15.0 0.0 ▬
1 6 Tanner Houck 43 $15.0 14.5 0.5 ▲
2 6 Reynaldo Lopez 44 $14.5 14.0 0.5 ▲
12 6 Luis Gil 45 $14.0 9.0 5.0 ▲
5 6 Carlos Rodon 46 $14.0 10.0 4.0 ▲
19 6 Bryan Woo 47 $13.0 6.0 7.0 ▲
-1 6 Cristopher Sanchez 48 $12.0 12.0 0.0 ▬
-13 6 Christian Scott 49 $11.0 15.5 -4.5 ▼
-7 6 John Means 50 $11.0 15.0 -4.0 ▼
-2 7 Tanner Bibee 51 $11.0 11.0 0.0 ▬
-4 7 Chris Bassitt 52 $10.0 12.0 -2.0 ▼
1 7 Nestor Cortes 53 $10.0 10.0 0.0 ▬
N/A 7 Ryan Pepiot 54 $10.0 N/A N/A
N/A 7 Blake Snell 55 $9.0 N/A N/A
N/A 7 Joe Musgrove 56 $9.0 N/A N/A
6 7 Taj Bradley 57 $8.5 8.0 0.5 ▲
0 7 Reese Olson 58 $8.5 8.5 0.0 ▬
-6 7 Brayan Bello 59 $8.5 10.0 -1.5 ▼
-8 7 Jose Berrios 60 $8.5 10.0 -1.5 ▼
-5 7 Hunter Greene 61 $8.0 9.0 -1.0 ▼
-12 7 Justin Verlander 62 $8.0 10.5 -2.5 ▼
-3 7 Cristian Javier 63 $8.0 8.5 -0.5 ▼
6 8 Clarke Schmidt 64 $7.0 5.0 2.0 ▲
-6 8 Jordan Hicks 65 $7.0 8.5 -1.5 ▼
-2 8 Casey Mize 66 $6.0 6.5 -0.5 ▼
-2 8 Marcus Stroman 67 $6.0 6.0 0.0 ▬
-7 8 Jordan Montgomery 68 $5.5 8.0 -2.5 ▼
-2 8 Gavin Stone 69 $5.5 6.0 -0.5 ▼
-2 8 Erick Fedde 70 $5.5 5.5 0.0 ▬
-2 8 Brady Singer 71 $5.0 5.0 0.0 ▬
-1 8 Triston McKenzie 72 $4.5 4.5 0.0 ▬
2 8 Javier Assad 73 $4.0 4.0 0.0 ▬
-12 8 Charlie Morton 74 $4.0 8.0 -4.0 ▼
13 8 Alek Manoah 75 $4.0 2.0 2.0 ▲
-4 8 Mitch Keller 76 $4.0 4.5 -0.5 ▼
-4 8 Dean Kremer 77 $4.0 4.0 0.0 ▬
-4 9 Andrew Heaney 78 $4.0 4.0 0.0 ▬
-2 9 Jose Soriano 79 $4.0 3.5 0.5 ▲
-2 9 Brandon Pfaadt 80 $3.5 3.5 0.0 ▬
0 9 Griffin Canning 81 $3.0 3.0 0.0 ▬
1 9 Jon Gray 82 $3.0 3.0 0.0 ▬
3 9 Tyler Anderson 83 $2.5 2.0 0.5 ▲
9 9 Andrew Abbott 84 $2.0 1.5 0.5 ▲
10 9 Alec Marsh 85 $2.0 1.0 1.0 ▲
-4 9 Jameson Taillon 86 $2.0 3.0 -1.0 ▼
-8 9 Aaron Civale 87 $2.0 3.5 -1.5 ▼
-4 10 James Paxton 88 $1.5 2.5 -1.0 ▼
-4 10 Zack Littell 89 $1.5 2.5 -1.0 ▼
-3 10 Sean Manaea 90 $1.5 2.0 -0.5 ▼
11 10 Michael Wacha 91 $1.5 1.0 0.5 ▲
-16 10 Reid Detmers 92 $1.5 4.0 -2.5 ▼
N/A 10 Robert Gasser 93 $1.5 N/A N/A
N/A 10 Spencer Arrighetti 94 $1.0 N/A N/A
-15 10 Matt Manning 95 $1.0 3.5 -2.5 ▼
-7 10 Kyle Harrison 96 $1.0 1.5 -0.5 ▼
-5 10 Luis Severino 97 $1.0 1.5 -0.5 ▼
-4 10 Logan Allen 98 $1.0 1.0 0.0 ▬
-2 10 Frankie Montas 99 $1.0 1.0 0.0 ▬
N/A 10 Tylor Megill 100 $1.0 N/A N/A
-2 10 Hunter Brown 101 $1.0 1.0 0.0 ▬


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Fantasy Football Rookie Spotlight: Jacob Cowing

The San Francisco 49ers used a fourth-round pick on wide receiver Jacob Cowing, who began his college career at UTEP before spending his final two seasons with the Arizona Wildcats. Can the 5-foot-8 wideout find a role with the 49ers? What kind of fantasy football value does Cowing have heading into his rookie season? Below,... Read More


Evan Engram - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Undervalued Fantasy Football Tight Ends to Target in PPR Leagues

It is important to know the difference between PPR (points per reception) and standard scoring leagues (no points per reception) when deciding to take a tight end in your 2024 fantasy football drafts. While standard leagues concentrate primarily on yards and touchdowns, PPR leagues have an extra reward for receptions. Tight ends who are continually... Read More


Tua Tagovailoa - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

One-Hit Wonder? Recent Fantasy Football Breakouts to Sell in 2024 Dynasty Leagues

There’s nothing more fun than watching a player have a breakout season on your dynasty fantasy football team. It can be the ace in the hole needed to capture that elusive dynasty championship. While we have seen breakout performances launch players into superstardom, there are also times when they fizzle out after a banner year.... Read More