RADIO
MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament.
And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship.
Anyway, Jason and I will be taking a look at the main card for The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale. We will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers. We will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records.
Justin's Record: 59-29
Jason's Record: 47-41
Without anymore waiting, here are our picks and analysis for the main card at The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale.
Brandon Moreno vs Ryan Benoit
Justin’s Pick
It’s somewhat funny that Moreno was the first fighter eliminated from TUF24, but he was also the first to make his UFC debut. He looked extremely impressive, while finishing Louis Smolka, who is a great competitor. Benoit isn’t nearly as well-rounded as Smolka, and he has lost two of his last four fights via chokes. Moreno is a submission specialist, although he does like to stand and throw. Ultimately, this will be another impressive victory for the young, but talented, Moreno.
Brandon Moreno via Submission, 2nd Round
Jason’s Pick
This week’s UFC main card kicks off with Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno and Ryan “Baby Face” Benoit in what should be a rather competitive contest. After losing in the first round of The Ultimate Fighter, Moreno went on the defeat Louis Smolka on short notice in the first round. Despite his loss, Moreno is a very talented fighter, and he should get the better of Benoit. His takedowns are tough to stop, and Benoit is not great at defending them, which will eventually lead to a submission victory for the number 12 ranked flyweight.
Brandon Moreno via Submission, 2nd Round
Sara McMann vs Alexis Davis
Justin’s Pick
This is an interesting matchup. McMann is an elite wrestler, while Davis has slick submissions on the ground. Davis also has the kickboxing to stand and outpoint McMann to a submission. That means McMann is going to have to rely on her wrestling to keep control of this fight, while avoiding Davis’ submission. I believe she will be able to do this, but I don’t think this fight is as cut and dry as Jason. McMann should walk away with the victory, but keep in mind that Davis is a live dog in this fight.
Sara McMann via Unanimous Decision
Jason’s Pick
Sara McMann is going to be a little bit too much for Alexis Davis to handle. McMann is highly accurate with her takedown attempts, and Davis does not have the defense to stop her from shooting early and often. McMann will work the ground and pound for as long as she can, attempting to finish the fight, but if a decision victory is necessary, she will out point Davis along the way. The only question this fight raises is whether or not McMann will have to work for three minutes or fifteen.
Sara McMann via Unanimous Decision
Ion Cutelaba vs Jared Cannonier
Justin’s Pick
It isn’t often that Cutelaba is the smaller man in a fight, but that will be the case with Jared Cannonier moving down a weight class from heavyweight. Both men have fight ending power, and this fight should be fireworks from the start to the finish. This fight likely won’t be going to the judges, but many people thought that about Cutelaba’s last fight too. Cutelaba displayed an elite chin, which could be the difference maker in this fight. If Cutelaba can eat a few big shots, while landing his own, it’s only going to be a matter of time before his hand it raised.
Ion Cutelaba via TKO, 1st Round
Jason’s Pick
Jared “The Killa Gorilla” has been impressive in his professional MMA career thus far, but he will be put to the test this week against Ion “The Hulk” Cutelaba. Cutelaba, at this point in his career, is the superior fighter. This fight is not likely going to last all three rounds, as both fighters throw at a high output with tremendous power. Cannonier does have a puncher’s chance, but it is very unlikely that he walks away victorious. Cutelaba should be able to finish this fight before the end of the second round.
Ion Cutelaba via TKO, 2nd Round
Jake Ellenberger vs Jorge Masvidal
Justin’s Pick
Masvidal has been on a bit of a skid recently, but each of his last three loses have been via split decision. Ellenberger, on the other hand, has been finished in three of his last four fights, but he’s coming off an impressive win against Matt Brown. Masvidal is more of a points fighter, but he may not get to the judges in this fight, as Ellenberger has been a finish or be finished fighter recently. Masvidal has the takedown defense to keep this fight standing, and he also has the striking to beat Ellenberger this late in his career.
Jorge Masvidal via TKO, 3rd Round
Jason’s Pick
Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger has had an impressive career, but after losing in two of his last three fights, it could be coming to an end. Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal will be looking to extend Ellenberger’s recent struggles in the octagon. Both fighters are very solid when it comes to defending takedowns, so this fight should stay standing. If it does, Masvidal gets the slight advantage. Ellenberger has great standing defense, but Masival is slightly better, and he lands more punches more effectively. That is going to be very important, if this fight goes the distance, which it should.
Jorge Masvidal via Unanimous Decision
Justin’s Pick
I agree that the odds on this fight seem a bit off. It should be much closer, as Cejudo has a clear path to victory. These two men have combined to only lose to Demetrious Johnson and Dominic Cruz in their professional careers. Both men have power in their hands, but Benavidez has more weapons on the feet. Cejudo’s neutralizer is his elite wrestling ability. He will be able to get Benavidez down in this fight, but the question is whether or not he can keep him down. Cejudo should use his power striking to set up takedowns, and they will likely pile up as the fight moves on. That will be the difference when this fight hits the judges scorecards.
Henry Cejudo via Unanimous Decision
Jason’s Pick
Henry “The Messenger” Cejudo is not given enough credit for his wrestling abilities. This is a bad matchup for Joseph Benavidez, but no one seems to want to admit that. Cejudo is in a position to control this fight, and if the fight remains standing, he has the power and precision to send Benavidez to the mat. Vegas does not seem to agree, but Cejudo looks like the favorite. He is a very level-headed fighter with elite wrestling skills and a great stand-up game. Even if this fight goes decision, he should walk away with his hand raised.
Henry Cejudo via Unanimous Decision
Demetrious Johnson vs Tim Elliot
Justin’s Pick
Elliott is an impressive fighter, and he should stick around in the UFC for a while now, but I don’t believe anyone is even close to Johnson at this point in his career. Keep in mind, Elliott has fight changing power, but Johnson is an elite defensive fighter, and it’s not very likely that he makes a mistake for Elliott to capitalize on. Johnson will continue to be a careful fighter while beating Elliott in every aspect of this fight. Keep in mind, Elliott is still a good option on DraftKings because of his low price tag.
Demetrious Johnson via TKO, 5th Round
Jason’s Pick
This fight is sort of a joke. Absolutely no disrespect for Tim Elliott (he is a fantastic fighter), but Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson should toy with him this week. He is the superior fighter no matter where this fight takes place. He is going to control the Octagon from the time the first bell rings to the time his hand is raised. There is no reason to believe that Tim Elliott will win this fight. That said, as far as fantasy MMA is concerned, Elliott dirt cheap price tag makes him rather enticing in what could be a five round fight.
Demetrious Johnson via TKO, 3rd Round
