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Mike's College Football Playoff rankings projections for the second CFP poll on November 11, 2025. His Week 12 College Football Playoff rankings and breakdown.
Predicting the Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings Week 12
The first rankings of the 2025 college football season left some surprises. With many upsets happening again, we’re already going to see a big change in the bottom of the rankings. The CFP created a potential problem with ranking Notre Dame inside the top 10, while not having an ACC team higher than 14th, despite Notre Dame’s loss to an ACC team. The committee took some heat for the rankings and left some clamoring for the return of the computer rankings. For those of you who are curious, the old BCS computer rankings were really close to the first committee rankings. Take that for what it’s worth.
25. South Florida (7-2)
Last week: NR
Result: W 55-23 vs. UTSA
I was shocked by the absence of the Group of 5 teams in the first CFP poll. With South Florida and James Madison both making the AP Poll, I think the committee will have its hand forced a bit. A nasty loss by Washington makes room for one team. South Florida’s wins over Boise and Florida should offset the losses to Memphis and Miami, even though the committee didn’t show the Canes much love. The SOS of the American is far better than the Sun Belt.
24. Cincinnati (7-2)
Last week: NR
Result: BYE
The lack of inclusion of Cincinnati despite an AP Poll ranking was a bit surprising. The Big 12 was treated great at the top with three teams ranked in the top 15. However, none of the other 13 teams were ranked. Even the ACC, a league that was battered out of conference this year, got five teams in the rankings. The Big 12 should get a fourth team in this week.
23. Iowa (6-3)
Last week: 20 (⇓3)
Result: L 16-18 vs. (9) Oregon
The inclusion of Iowa was a shock to many, myself included. The Hawkeyes don’t have a good win, and the loss to Iowa State isn’t much of a good loss anymore. The committee isn’t going to harshly penalize Iowa for losing to a top-10 Oregon team in the last seconds of the game.
22. Tennessee (6-3)
Last week: 25 (⇑3)
Result: BYE
Some people were appalled by the inclusion of Tennessee, which has the epitome of good losses with no actual good wins. The CFP isn’t going to drop them out of the rankings for a team like James Madison. The SEC is still king in the eyes of the national media, which has had a heavy influence on the committee.
21. Pittsburgh (7-2)
Last week: 24 (⇑3)
Result: BYE
Many think that the committee was unfair to the ACC in the first CFP rankings, with Virginia being the highest-ranked squad at 14. However, five teams from the ACC made the top 25. That matters almost as much as the rankings. This means many ACC teams at least have a chance at ranked wins down the stretch. That only helps the look of the conference. Pitt’s head-to-head loss to Louisville will keep the Panthers as the lowest-ranked ACC team. The committee has consistently favored head-to-head wins.
20. Louisville (7-2)
Last week: 15 (⇓5)
Result: L 26-29 vs. California (OT)
A loss to a perceived weak Cal team will hurt the Cardinals and the ACC as a whole. I don’t think the committee moves Louisville entirely out of the rankings, but dropping them five slots will send a message.
19. Virginia (8-2)
Last week: 14 (⇓5)
Result: L 9-16 vs. Wake Forest
Virginia was only where they were in the initial rankings because they were the ACC favorite. Many didn’t see another loss on the schedule. I was not among that list. Though the final three games were winnable for the Wahoos, they were equally losable, especially this game—the contrast in styles and the loss of Chandler Morris early in the second quarter sunk Virginia. It’s possible that the committee doesn’t come down as hard on Virginia because of the Morris injury and the fact that he likely won’t miss another game.
18. Michigan (7-2)
Last week: 21 (⇑3)
Result: BYE
USC beat Michigan head-to-head. The committee will remain consistent with the Trojans ahead of Michigan until they no longer have the same record.
17. USC (7-2)
Last week: 19 (⇑2)
Result: W 38-17 vs. Northwestern
The committee had to like Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon looking good again. They had both struggled in the last couple of games.
16. Miami (FL) (7-2)
Last week: 18 (⇑2)
Result: W 38-10 vs. Syracuse
The initial rankings of the ACC teams ended up helping the conference. Louisville and Virginia were ranked high enough to remain in the rankings despite losses. However, I don’t think we see the order of the teams changing among teams that didn’t lose. The committee isn’t going to cave on Georgia Tech over Miami in the rankings just because the public doesn’t like it.
15. Georgia Tech (8-1)
Last week: 17 (⇑2)
Result: BYE
The Yellow Jackets are now the torch carriers for the conference. Chances are that it doesn’t end this way.
14. Vanderbilt (8-2)
Last week: 16 (⇑2)
Result: W 45-38 vs. Auburn (OT)
The committee has been pretty consistent about not penalizing teams for close wins over unranked conference teams at this point in the season. It takes something major for the order to change once initially established.
13. Utah (7-2)
Last week: 13 ⇔
Result: BYE
The initial ranking of Utah surprised me. They got a lot of credit for wins over Arizona State and UCLA. BYU won’t be moved below the Utes because of their loss in the Holy War.
12. Oklahoma (7-2)
Last week: 12 ⇔
Result: BYE
People want to poke holes in Oklahoma’s schedule, but wins over currently ranked Michigan and Tennessee teams make it easier for the committee to justify this ranking.
11. BYU (8-1)
Last week: 7 (⇓4)
Result: L 7-29 at (8) Texas Tech
I’m curious to see how the committee handles the Cougars. The first loss came on the road to a top-10 team. However, the game wasn’t close. Moving BYU below Texas and Oklahoma would break the internet, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened. I think the likely scenario is that the CFP splits the difference and leaves the Cougars between Texas and Oklahoma.
10. Texas (7-2)
Last week: 11 (⇑1)
Result: BYE
We’ll see how close attention the CFP pays to the AP Poll this week. The AP moved Texas back into the top 10. Will it pressure the CFP into doing the same?
9. Notre Dame (7-2)
Last week: 10 (⇑1)
Result: W 49-10 vs. Navy
The committee pinned itself in a corner with the Irish this year. Notre Dame is assured a spot in the CFP if they win out. The only chance at a loss is against Pitt this weekend. The Irish overperforming in the CFP last year is likely helping the committee justify keeping them up here. Notre Dame = ratings.
8. Oregon (8-1)
Last week: 9 (⇑1)
Result: W 18-16 at (20) Iowa
It’s a road win in terrible weather, but I don’t think the CFP is going to jump the Ducks over Mississippi. That performance has to leave the committee questioning Oregon just a little, even if the rankings won’t show it.
7. Mississippi (9-1)
Last week: 7 ⇔
Result: W 49-0 vs. The Citadel
Ole Miss slumming, then getting a bye, could have the Rebels sliding down the rankings a bit. Will the CFP put a Big 12 team above a mighty SEC team with the same record?
6. Texas Tech (9-1)
Last week: 8 (⇑2)
Result: W 29-7 vs. (7) BYU
The window is there for Tech to jump Mississippi. I’m not sure it can jump anyone else, despite a big win against a top 10 team.
5. Georgia (8-1)
Last week: 5 ⇔
Result: W 41-21 at Mississippi State
Georgia blowing out the other Bulldogs in StarkVegas has to look good considering Texas and Tennessee struggled in the same situation.
4. Alabama (8-1)
Last week: 4 ⇔
Result: W 20-9 vs. LSU
Some labeled this as a trap game. We all know that LSU’s defense hasn’t been the issue. Alabama going out and taking care of business in a fairly convincing fashion will be good enough.
3. Indiana (10-0)
Last week: 2 (⇓1)
Result: W 27-24 at Penn State
This is the first time that Indiana has struggled since the Iowa game. Having to hold on against a Penn State team without its starting QB and an interim coach could be the ammunition needed to move the Hoosiers down, especially since the Aggies took care of business.
2. Texas A&M (9-0)
Last week: 3 (⇑1)
Result: W 38-17 at (22) Missouri
It was a convincing win against a ranked team on the road. If Missouri still had Beau Pribula in this game, it may have been enough to carry the Aggies to the top.
1. Ohio State (9-0)
Last week: 1 ⇔
Result: W 34-10 at Purdue
It was a convincing win against a terrible team. I don’t think the CFP will move the Buckeyes down without a really good reason. They’re not going to move the Aggies up two slots for beating a Missouri team that isn’t the same as the one responsible for the ranking.
