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Mike's College Football Playoff rankings projections for the first CFP poll on November 4, 2025. His Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings and breakdown.
Predicting the Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings
Where will the College Football Playoff committee rank each team in the first rankings of the 2025 season? This committee releases its first rankings of the season this week. Will Ohio State be ranked at the top, as they are in the AP Poll? Has the committee watched enough games to rank someone else at the top? We’ll try to figure out what this collection of (mostly business) football minds has in store for us tomorrow.
The CFP backed itself into a corner last year by ranking SMU and Indiana so high in the early rankings in 2024, thereby putting more emphasis on remaining undefeated despite a weaker schedule. Will that happen with BYU this year? Keep in mind that these rankings will determine seeding in the CFP, but the automatic bids for the five highest-ranked conference champions still take precedent over the rankings. We will likely see two teams not in the top 12 of the CFP rankings make it into the CFP this year.
25. Cincinnati (6-2)
In the initial rankings, I think two things will be true. The teams won’t vary much from the AP poll, and we will not have a non-SEC team with three losses in the rankings. I also feel that the CFP will be more lenient with what they consider the top Group of 5 (or 6) team. Also, only one of those will be ranked. We’ll get to that later.
The Bearcats will be in over Iowa for one reason: the Bearcats beat the Cyclones, and Iowa did not. Sometimes it really is that simple. Both teams have dominated the bottom of their respective conferences, but the bottom of the Big Ten is far more populated than the bottom of the Big 12. On top of that, the Big 12 is the only power conference not accurately represented on the committee. They don’t have a voice in there speaking on behalf of an Arizona State team that has suffered a rash of injuries, but is likely still one of the three best in its conference.
24. Tennessee (6-3)
Last year, the CFP didn’t value “quality losses” as much as the AP pollsters did. We could even see Iowa sneak in over Tennessee since the Vols don’t have a signature conference win. The losses are all to highly-ranked teams (Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma), but beating Mississippi State in overtime, Kentucky (long live the Beer Barrel!), and Arkansas isn’t going to impress the CFP much, nor should it.
23. Washington (6-2)
The CFP took an overly simplistic tone last year and may again this year. Washington has a quality conference win over Illinois. Tennessee still doesn’t have one.
22. Michigan (7-2)
We talked about simplicity, right? Michigan has better losses than USC, but it won’t matter. The committee loved head-to-head results (in the few places they had them) last year. USC beat Michigan, and Michigan beat Washington. They love it when teams make it easy.
21. USC (6-2)
USC beat Michigan in the head-to-head, but does Nebraska really count as a quality conference win, especially when Nebraska likely wins this game if Dylan Raiola doesn’t break his leg? The AP doesn’t consider such nuances. The CFP doesn’t unless it threatens to diminish the quality of its playoff, as the Jordan Travis injury would have in 2023.
20. Memphis (8-1)
I think the CFP will be kind to the anointed Group of 5 (or 6) team. The other side of that sword is that other teams, such as North Texas and San Diego State (who also have a Power 4 win that is arguably more impressive than Memphis’s), won’t be given anything. There’s a good chance that UNT and SDSU are at least as good as Memphis. The American Conference Championship will likely be for a playoff berth since Mountain West heavyweight Boise State was dominated by an American team (South Florida) and lost a conference game.
19. Missouri (6-2)
Missouri has the quality losses (Vanderbilt and Alabama), but also has a hurt quarterback. Again, I don’t think that will affect the rankings unless Missouri threatens the top 12. Wins over Auburn and South Carolina are better than any conference win that Tennessee has.
18. Georgia Tech (8-1)
How, when, and where the committee ranks the ACC teams will matter. Rank Miami too low, and it becomes tougher to justify ranking Notre Dame high because the Miami loss is not the quality loss that we thought it was. Notre Dame = ratings, and the Irish have a mouthpiece on the CFP. They also have an alleged sweetheart backroom deal that would not force the Irish to join a conference. Real or not, perception is all that matters.
Ranking Tech below a two-loss Miami is dirty work, but it can be justified because SMU made the CFP last year, and Louisville is a quality loss. Then there is the little zebra intervention that kept Tech undefeated in the first place. The Bees still have Pitt and Georgia on the schedule. This initial ranking likely won’t matter much since Georgia looks like a sure loss, and having Pitt the week before Clean Old-Fashioned Hate could see the Wreck looking ahead.
17. Miami (FL) (6-2)
You can talk about a nightmare situation for the ACC, but I can promise you that it’s much worse for the committee. They saw the backlash with SMU last year and realized that the Mustangs likely didn’t deserve a spot. However, the head of the committee has direct ACC ties (a HUGE conflict of interest that should be investigated, if you ask me). More playoff teams mean more money for the conference. Money is what got us into this awful mess to begin with. Don’t pretend that it doesn’t matter now!
The committee has the delicate balance of belittling the conference with lower (and likely deserved) rankings, yet keeping Miami high enough to make the Irish look good. With the way Miami is playing, they may lose at least one more with NC State and a road game at Pitt still on the docket. The ACC hopes a two-loss Miami somehow makes it into the ACC Championship to make the league (and Notre Dame) look relevant with relevant teams. Beware of backing the wrong horse, ACC! The SEC backed LSU instead of South Carolina last year, and look how that turned out!
16. Utah (7-2)
The bad news for the committee is that pesky Big 12. You know, the only power conference without adequate representation on the CFP. It burned them (and maybe BYU) last year. This year, it’s become very clear that the Big 12 has two really good teams…and Utah has lost to both of them. What the committee does with Utah is going to be interesting. Should Texas Tech or BYU lose, where the Utes are to open this thing might matter.
15. Vanderbilt (7-2)
When it comes down to it, the committee is happy that Vanderbilt lost. The three teams left on the schedule (Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee) wouldn’t warrant moving Vandy back into the race unless there is chaos in front of them. I wouldn’t rule that out. Vanderbilt is a good story, but good stories don’t always translate to good ratings.
14. Oklahoma (7-2)
Here is where we will start to see a disconnect between the AP and CFP rankings. Record means more to the CFP than quality losses. Quality losses only work for coaches and ESPN. The CFP also loved head-to-head. Texas has worse losses, but Oklahoma lost to the Longhorns.
13. Texas (7-2)
ESPN wants Arch Manning in the CFP. The CFP wants Arch Manning in the CFP. Most fans want Arch Manning in the CFP. How can they navigate this with Georgia and Texas A&M still on the schedule for the Longhorns? Ranking them near the cut line to begin with is a good start.
12. Louisville (7-1)
Here is where it starts to get delicate for the CFP. If the CFP backs Louisville, it can have a Louisville vs. Miami ACC Championship. The Cardinals likely aren’t losing again, though the game at SMU may be tougher than expected. There’s a good chance that Virginia struggles in each of its last three games. However, Virginia beat Louisville head-to-head in Louisville. They really can’t justify putting the Cardinals any higher right now.
11. Virginia (8-1)
Ranking Virginia this low could help alleviate the issues that the CFP created for itself last year. While the Wahoos are technically undefeated in the ACC, Wake, Duke, and Virginia Tech are all good enough to tumble the Hoos and allow Miami to fill the void. If the CFP puts Virginia here, it looks like a vote of confidence while slightly uplifting the ACC. In reality, it’s hedging in case Virginia loses.
10. Notre Dame (6-2)
The CFP already showed how they will handle the Irish last year. The difference is that this year, the Irish do have two good losses (I can poke holes in that, but it really doesn’t matter. The Irish likely won’t lose again). Only beating a bad Boston College team by 15 is not the look the Irish (or its CFP backers) wanted to see, but the USC win looks better. Navy and Pitt are still good wins. Closing with bad Syracuse and Stanford teams is only bad if Notre Dame fails to blow them out. Ranking the Irish here would all but assure them a CFP spot.
9. Texas Tech (8-1)
Ranking Tech under BYU accomplishes two things for the CFP. One, it makes it look like the CFP doesn’t care that Tech’s loss was without its starting QB. Two, the CFP put a heavy emphasis on undefeated teams last year. Tech and BYU play this week. The CFP will back the winner of that game and hope that Virginia, Louisville, and Miami win out. Make no mistake about it. Inaccurate representation for the Big 12 will continue to be a problem.
8. Mississippi (8-1)
If you don’t think that the CFP wasn’t sitting in that room talking about Lane Kiffin’s open disdain for the committee leaving out Mississippi on December 20 last year, you’re crazy. Lane was very vocal about it on social media, and you can bet that it was brought to the attention of everyone in that room. The only weapon they have is to rank the Rebels lower and hope they blow another one.
7. BYU (8-0)
BYU heading into the CFP ranking season undefeated wasn’t on anyone’s bingo card after the Jake Retzlaff dismissal. Now the CFP has to decide how to handle this. The CFP ranked SMU and Indiana too high to open last year’s rankings. They likely don’t want to be in that situation again, and can hide behind the “strength of schedule, strength of record” stipulation to do so. If BYU beats Texas Tech, they will own wins against the top two other teams in the Big 12. If they lose, the CFP will be begging for Cincinnati to beat the Cougars on November 22.
6. Oregon (8-1)
Oregon’s dream scenario is for Ohio State and Indiana to win out so the Ducks can watch the Big Ten Money Grab (Championship Game) from the couch, then host a playoff game. If the Ducks are ranked in this spot, it likely happens.
5. Georgia (7-1)
Oregon’s dream is also Georgia’s dream. Georgia’s is closer to reality than Oregon’s is.
4. Alabama (7-1)
As much as the CFP would like to, I don’t think they have the stones to rank one-loss Alabama over one of the other undefeated teams in the only major conferences the CFP acknowledges. If they do, it’s saying the quiet part out loud when they really don’t need to. The SEC will sort itself out down the stretch without the CFP having to direct traffic. Alabama’s only “tough” game remaining is against Oklahoma at home.
3. Indiana (9-0)
The Hoosiers close with Penn State, Wisconsin, and Purdue. The teams are a combined 0-17 in conference play. The bottom of the Big Ten is worse than the bottom of the ACC, Big 12, and SEC combined. Someone needs to say it!
2. Texas A&M (8-0)
The Aggies have the clearest path to the top seed. Indiana has the easiest path considering both A&M and Ohio State have at least one losable game left.
1. Ohio State (8-0)
The committee with go with the name even though Indiana and A&M have better wins.
