RADIO
We are five weeks into the 2023 season, and by now you probably have a decent feel for how your fantasy teams are shaping up. Roto fantasy baseball has this extra dash of strategy because, at any given time, different teams are looking for different things. In points leagues (or fantasy football), every team just wants to score more points. In roto, one team might not be really in need of a guy who can steal some bases, while such a player would not even help another team in the league if they're already running away with that category.
The one thing I've never seen in the fantasy baseball writing industry is a piece that goes through each category during the season and picks out some players that are available in most leagues that can boost a fantasy team's performance in each of those categories. That's what I'm here to do today.
My approach here is to look back at my own daily projection system over the last 10 days and to see which low-owned players are earning high projections in each category. So go to your teams and see what categories you're behind in, and then consider adding these corresponding names. Let's get to it, we have five categories to cover.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and weekly lineup resources:- Nick Mariano's fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups (Premium)
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Runs Scored Waiver Wire
| Player | Own% | Proj PA | Proj Runs | Proj R/PA |
| Charlie Blackmon | 45% | 36 | 5.00 | .139 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 44% | 40 | 5.25 | .131 |
| Jurickson Profar | 12% | 35 | 4.54 | .130 |
| Michael Conforto | 41% | 38 | 4.92 | .130 |
| Josh Naylor | 33% | 33 | 4.27 | .130 |
| Edward Olivares | 2% | 34 | 4.36 | .129 |
| Jorge Soler | 23% | 35 | 4.33 | .125 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 5% | 34 | 4.07 | .120 |
| Trevor Larnach | 7% | 32 | 3.82 | .119 |
| Jake Burger | 10% | 35 | 4.10 | .117 |
The common thread here is mediocre hitters being pushed into the top third of lineups, mostly on poor offenses. The Rockies are a bad team, but they still get to play half of their games in Coors, and that generates runs at the top of their lineup. That is why you see Charlie Blackmon and Jurickson Profar there, and you'll see both of those names again in this post.
In fact, you'll see a lot of repeat names as we move forward. One name that pops up over and over here is Edward Olivares, who has been one of these Statcast page darlings for a few years now.
He is fast, has power, and doesn't have a terrible time with strikeouts. He has been an everyday outfielder for the Royals in recent days, and that is what gets him onto this post so many times. I don't think Olivares is going to be a fantasy game-breaker this year, but it would seem that he should be much more highly owned than he currently is.
It's also interesting that Josh Naylor's ownership has fallen as low as it has. He's hitting just .212/.271/.341 this year but is still starting every day and posting a solid 17% K% with a 9.7% Brl%. His expected stats are also quite encouraging (a .290 xBA and a .361 xwOBA), so you should go ahead and pounce on him if someone in your league has made him available.
Home Runs - Waiver Wire Boosters
| Player | Own% | Proj PA | Proj HR | Proj HR/PA |
| Jake Burger | 10% | 35 | 1.82 | 0.052 |
| Jorge Soler | 23% | 35 | 1.43 | 0.041 |
| Edward Olivares | 2% | 34 | 1.12 | 0.033 |
| Josh Naylor | 33% | 33 | 1.08 | 0.033 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 5% | 34 | 1.08 | 0.032 |
| Shea Langeliers | 33% | 31 | 0.98 | 0.032 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 11% | 33 | 1.01 | 0.031 |
| Trevor Larnach | 7% | 32 | 0.93 | 0.029 |
| Michael Conforto | 41% | 38 | 1.07 | 0.028 |
| Jake Meyers | 1% | 33 | 0.88 | 0.027 |
Jake Burger's 26.2% Brl% is fourth-best in the league among hitters with at least 60 PAs. He's hit seven homers in just 72 PAs, an elite PA/HR of 10.3. The strikeouts are high (29%), but the walk rate is fine (10%) and he can really, really smash the ball when he's making contact (118 max exit velocity). He's playing every day for the White Sox and should continue to do so as that lineup desperately needs some quick offense. He's a fantastic pickup for teams that need homers.
Another name we see repeated a few times here is Jeimer Candelario, who so far has benefited from the escape from Detroit. He is hitting near the top of the Nationals lineup every day and has given you four homers so far with 12 runs and 14 RBI (to lead his team). There's very little upside with Candelario as he doesn't have huge exit velocity and rarely steals a base, but he doesn't strike out much and will play every day right at the top of that lineup, and that is worthwhile in deeper leagues.
One more name to highlight here is Trevor Larnach, who we'll see a few times as well. Larnach has played nearly every day this year and racked up 113 PAs. He's hitting .242/.354/.389 with three homers and 18 RBI so far. His 13% Brl% is strong, and he also takes a bunch of walks at 15%. The bad news is the strikeouts (31%) and the fact that he will probably get benched against lefties down the road. He also could only be in this spot for as long as Alex Kirilloff is held down in AAA, but for now, Larnach is a decent power streamer against right-handed pitching.
Runs Batted In - Waiver Wire Boosters
| Player | Own% | Proj PA | Proj RBI | Proj RBI/PA |
| Josh Naylor | 33 | 33 | 4.57 | 0.138 |
| Michael Conforto | 41 | 38 | 5.04 | 0.133 |
| Edward Olivares | 2 | 34 | 4.37 | 0.129 |
| Trevor Larnach | 7 | 32 | 3.98 | 0.124 |
| Eddie Rosario | 2 | 31 | 3.75 | 0.121 |
| Jason Heyward | 1 | 31 | 3.68 | 0.119 |
| Jorge Soler | 23 | 35 | 4.14 | 0.118 |
| Jake Burger | 10 | 35 | 4.14 | 0.118 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 11 | 33 | 3.81 | 0.115 |
| Jean Segura | 31 | 32 | 3.57 | 0.112 |
This list is pretty much a duplicate of what we've seen so far, but we do see Jason Heyward and Spencer Torkelson join the list. Heyward has benefitted from hitting #3 in the Dodgers lineup plenty of times recently, a trend that will likely not continue as the team gets healthy. Heyward is showing good power this year, but not much else – so I wouldn't be super excited to add him.
As for Torkelson, he was looking strong early on, but has sputtered recently and has not homered since April 19 while dropping his batting average to .206. The good news is that he's controlling the strikeouts (21%) and hitting the ball hard frequently (46% hard-hit rate), so maybe there's some hope for better days ahead for the former first-overall draft pick.
Stolen Bases - Waiver Wire Boosters
| Player | Own% | Proj PA | Proj SB | Proj SB/PA |
| Esteury Ruiz | 44 | 40 | 3.46 | 0.059 |
| Elvis Andrus | 12 | 35 | 3.38 | 0.032 |
| Oswaldo Cabrera | 10 | 31 | 3.09 | 0.026 |
| Jean Segura | 31 | 32 | 3.57 | 0.025 |
| Eddie Rosario | 2 | 31 | 3.75 | 0.022 |
| Nick Senzel | 2 | 31 | 3.23 | 0.021 |
| Jurickson Profar | 12 | 35 | 3.70 | 0.017 |
| Alex Call | 1 | 35 | 2.69 | 0.017 |
| Edward Olivares | 2 | 34 | 4.37 | 0.017 |
| Jake Meyers | 1 | 33 | 3.34 | 0.012 |
Some new names popping up here. We've seen Esteury before, but he certainly deserves a note here. He's been frequently hitting lead-off for the Athletics and we know what that guy can do on the basepaths. He is currently fourth in the league with 11 steals and has been caught just once. He's also giving you a non-awful batting average at .255, but there's almost no power in the profile with his .302 SLG and zero homers so far.
The names here that don't profile as "empty speed" players are Senzel, who you can always play when he's healthy and playing at home, and Olivares who we've already talked about. I would give Senzel an add in deep leagues, but it likely won't be long before he's back on the IL.
Batting Average - Waiver Wire Boosters
| Player | Own% | Proj PA | Proj AVG |
| Charlie Blackmon | 45 | 36 | .271 |
| Jean Segura | 31 | 32 | .267 |
| Edward Olivares | 2 | 34 | .259 |
| Josh Naylor | 33 | 33 | .254 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 5 | 34 | .254 |
| Nick Senzel | 2 | 31 | .252 |
| Jurickson Profar | 12 | 35 | .249 |
| Elvis Andrus | 12 | 35 | .249 |
| Michael Conforto | 41 | 38 | .243 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 44 | 35 | .239 |
More of the same. We have low-strikeout rates for players that have been in the lineup recently. There is not a ton of power in these names, which is commonplace for finding hitters on the waiver wire. You're typically having to give up something big with available hitters. The names I'm interested in here are, once again, Josh Naylor, Jeimer Candelario, Nick Senzel, and to a lesser extent Michael Conforto.
I hope this helps you out, maybe I'll come back in a few weeks and do this again. Good luck and happy hunting, RotoBallers!
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